Balls exploits the Tories' normality deficit
Calling for cheaper prices is an attempt to portray Cameron and Osborne as out of touch.
By Rafael Behr Published 16 June 2011 14:25
The big news line from Ed Balls's speech at the London School of Economics this morning is the call for an emergency tax cut. George Osborne's Plan A for the economy isn't working, the shadow chancellor argued. Again. The economy needs a jump start of fiscal loosening in the form of a temporary VAT reduction. Balls made a pretty robust case for cutting sales taxes -- it can be implemented immediately; it releases cash directly to consumers and company bottom lines. He also argued that the VAT cut introduced by Alistair Darling in the 2008 pre-budget report worked, citing an Institute for Fiscal Studies analysis for corroboration.
Labour got rough ride over that decision. In fact, it was widely ridiculed with jibes along the lines: "how does shaving a few pennies off the price of a new TV save the economy from crisis?" But that was before inflation had become an urgent concern for squeezed consumers and the government. When challenged on the effectiveness of the proposed cut in the Q&A after the speech, Balls had a deft political parry: Tory critics might not notice a VAT holiday (the implication being that they can afford higher prices) but ordinary folk would.
Both Labour and Tory private polling shows the public are wary of David Cameron and George Osborne as "not like ordinary people" -- distant, aloof. Balls and Miliband haven't yet found a way of really capitalising on the Conservatives' normality deficit, but calling for cheaper prices at the checkout is a try.
This was billed as a lecture rather than a speech -- a forensic critique of the government's macroeconomic strategy and not just another blast of political rhetoric.
But this is Ed Balls, we're talking about; the man who was once described to me by a senior Labour party strategist as "someone who wakes up every morning asking himself how he can destroy the Tories." The economic argument around the deficit was pretty familiar -- a rococo riff on the established theme of "too far, too fast". The political angle shone through in repeated references to the Tories' shambolic exit from the Exchange Rate Mechanism (ERM) in 1992. The argument is that George Osborne's single-minded determination to stick with fiscal Plan A is starting to resemble Norman Lamont's predicament, sticking with a fixed exchange rate as evidence mounted that it was an unsustainable arrangement. Whereas Lamont was institutionally locked into the ERM, Balls argues, Osborne could change course. There are alternatives. Lamont's hands were tied; Osborne's are not. That makes the rigidity all the more perverse and the Chancellor more culpable if things go wrong.
I counted ten references to the ERM. It was the unifying theme of the speech. Of course it was. The ERM exit -- Black Wednesday -- was famously the moment the Tories lost credibility on the economy. David Cameron was an advisor to Lamont at the time. No wonder Balls wants the analogy to stick.
An aside: Balls had a relatively contrite line about Labour's fiscal record. "Of course we didn't spend all of the money wisely. No government does." When I asked him to specify where there had been a lack of wisdom he cited Labour's multiple and wasteful reorganisations in healthcare, in particular the fiddling around with the structure of Primary Care Trusts. It's a good one to own up to, for pretty obvious reasons.
The spending line was one of a few very last minute additions to the speech, tacked on this morning, apparently; recognition perhaps that Labour needs to sound a little more penitent about the past before it can be trusted to talk about the future?
Latest tweets
More from New Statesman
- Online writers:
- Steven Baxter
- Rowenna Davis
- David Allen Green
- Mehdi Hasan
- Nelson Jones
- Gavin Kelly
- Helen Lewis
- Laurie Penny
- The V Spot
- Alex Hern
- Martha Gill
- Alan White
- Samira Shackle
- Alex Andreou
- Nicky Woolf in America
- Bim Adewunmi
- Glosswitch
- Kate Mossman on pop
- Ryan Gilbey on Film
- Martin Robbins
- Rafael Behr
- Eleanor Margolis
- Tools and services:
- Polls
- Predictions
- Archive
- Magazine
- PDF edition
- RSS feeds
- Advertising
- Subscribe
- Special supplements
- Stockists




















8 comments
Hello everybody,
welcome to our website:
========== http://johnshop.org =====
Balls has done it again - saving the world by spending more. Cut VAT therefore decrease the treasury income and hope some of the money will come back in increased sales - I certainly wont rush to buy for 2% less than normal. He hasn't a clue.
A VAT cut would benefit the construction industry immensely and bring about much needed growth in an industry that has fallen the sharpest and the longest since the coalition came to power. Growth fell by 4% in the last quarter, 2.3% the quarter before that
Private sector based construction accounts for about 10% of GDP and continual falls in growth figures for the construction industry will have a considerable impact on the economy's growth overall and the slight growth last quarter will not be sustained and improved on without the help of the construction sector.
The Chartered Institute of Personnel and Development claimed in January 2011 the VAT rise would ultimately cost 250,000 jobs to the economy.
Reversing the VAT rise can only help the construction industry and the economy to grow again
I can't believe I've been going for years whtoiut knowing that.
A wider 50% percent tax band is called for, for cerain people not to spend their money on posh imported champagne and fine wines.
What is wrong with fine west country cider and beer flavoured by fine Kent hops instead? When needs must my dear man.
Unfortunately a VAT decrease will have no impact on higher food and utility prices which is the main reason for everyone feeling the pinch these days.
And if seeming to go soft on deficit reduction causes sterling to fall then the cost of imported oil and gas and food would go up even more. Thus negating any positive impact from the VAT cut.
The ERM is an odd thing for Balls to mention.
Gordon Brown (and therefore I assume Balls) was fully in support of Major's government's shadowing of the DM and entry into the ERM.
That the actual exit from the ERM was handled badly is probably true but the decision to enter the ERM had support across the political spectrum and in most of the media.
That it became untenable due to the consequences of German unification and the Bundesbank holding interest rates too high was unfortunate but didn't make the initial decision to enter the ERM the wrong one.