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Ministers lose the argument on "unaffordable" pensions

Francis Maude flounders as he fails to defend the claim that public sector pensions are "unaffordabl

The first mass strikes since the general election are officially underway. The Public and Commercial Services Union (PCS) and three teaching unions - the National Union of Teachers (NUT), the Association of Teachers and Lecturers (ATL) and the University and College Union (UCU) - have all taken industrial action over planned changes to public sector pensions. A third of schools are expected to close, with another third "partially affected", and two-thirds of universities have cancelled lectures.

Ministers are generally bullish, holding the line that the public "won't understand" the strikes, but on at least one key point - the alleged "unaffordability" of public sector pensions - they've lost the argument this morning. Confronted by the formidably articulate PCS general secretary Mark Serwotka (recently interviewed by Mehdi for the NS) on the Today programme, Francis Maude floundered. Asked to justify the government's repeated claim that public sector pensions are "unaffordable" (David Cameron claimed that the system was in danger of going "broke" in his speech on Monday), the Cabinet Office minister simply couldn't. And he couldn't because the data tells a different story.

As the graph below from the government-commissioned Hutton Report shows, public sector pension payments peaked at 1.9 per cent of GDP in 2010-11 and will gradually fall over the next fifty years to 1.4 per cent in 2059-60. The government's plan to ask employees to work longer and pay more is a political choice, not an economic necessity.

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As the Public Accounts Committee observed: "Officials appeared to define affordability on the basis of public perception rather than judgement on the cost in relation to either GDP or total public spending." In other words, the public have been misled and ministers are determined to keep misleading them. Unable to justify the myth that public sector pensions are "unaffordable", the desperate Maude fell back on the claim that they are "untenable", without having the decency to explain why this was so.

Continuing the cynical attempt to set public and private sector workers against each other, Maude commented: "not very many people in the private sector can still enjoy pensions like that." True, two-thirds of private-sector employees are not enrolled in a workplace pension scheme, compared to just 12 per cent of public-sector workers. But this is an argument for improving provision in the private sector, not for driving it down in the public sector. Ministers appear determined to fire the starting gun on a race to the bottom.

We can debate the merits of industrial action as a form of protest. But with public sector workers facing a triple crunch - higher contributions, a tougher inflation index and lower benefits - it's hardly surprising that they feel compelled to defend their rights. Even before any of the Hutton reforms are introduced, George Osborne's decision to uprate benefits in line with CPI, rather than the RPI, has already reduced the value of some pensions by 15 per cent.

Strip away the government's rhetoric ("unaffordable", "untenable") and the truth is that ministers are forcing workers to take another pay cut, forcing them to pick up the tab for a crisis that they did not cause. The public might be on the side of ministers, for now at least, but the facts are on the side of the unions.

34 comments

Luddite's picture

Hello!! Matthew, see you have nothing to say again, whats the matter son your four fingered widowed friend walked out on you again, have you ever thought about keeping sheep.

capt-price's picture

No one ever seems to metion the fact that a great number of private sector employees enjoy share options and generous yearly, quarterly, or in some cases monthly bonuses.

The public sector get none of that. Those who are keen to conribute to this obsurd attack on the public sector would do well to keep that in mind.

Luddite's picture

tacitus. Gordon Brown plundered the private pension prevision, he stole from Peter to pay Paul that political and financial gangster will enjoy his parliamentarian pension. I often wonder if he knows how fucking hated he is, I genuinely thought Thatcher would go down in social history being the most reviled prime minister in living memory until Gordon Brown came along that is.

Chris M's picture

I agree that the pensions are affordable but I don't believe that they are fair. The Hutton report found that there is no evidence that public sector staff were paid less than staff in the private sector to offset better pensions. Therefore the fact that they are receiving much better pensions than the majority of the private sector who are paying the taxes, which are essentially where the employers (the government/councils) contributions come from is clearly not fair.
Why should the public sector receive more (pay + pension) than the private sector, when the private sector is paying the tax that pays for the public sector's better renumeration? This is why there needs to be pensions reform.

Indu Pendent's picture

This is all a none argument.

The average public sector worker is over paid
> they receive on average 19% pension contribution vs private sector 4%
> job security that the rest of us can only dream about
> premium pay for those with less than 10 years service
> the priveledge of having a job that in many cases is a public good but does not does not create wealth

The issue is whether we can afford to spend money on public treats.

We need to shrink the state to the point where we can afford it without borrowing to pay for it.

Lets not forget, before 2008 Labour borrowed £350Bn and spent it on stroking voter and funding lifestyles back then. Labour's deficit reduction approach is to borrow £250Bn more than the coalition to again to bribe voters.

Most of the coalition deficit reduction plans is ultra soft and is funded by slowing (not stopping) the rate of recruitment into the public sector with very few real cuts or redundances except excessive pensions and culling management.

Can't wait for @Matt to say I'm stupid tory. In fact, the Labour elite are on the back foot with public sector pensions as they support the coalition actions as they are in the national interest but know it will damage their popularity if Labour openly support it.

The role of leaders is to lead and do the right thing even if unpopular. Labour should get some leaders.

Not Raving, But Frowning's picture

Hang on. The fact that pensions aren't going to go up in cost (and over a very long period will come down) doesn't make them more affordable if you accept - as the public mostly seems to - that public spending needs to come down as a matter of urgency.

I imagine the Tories would argue that they're 'unaffordable' in the way other aspects of pre-election public spending are 'unaffordable'. Just cause Maude can't articulate that doesn't make it false.

I suspect it *is* false, but this doesn't prove it. What this does prove is that public pensions are no more or less unaffordable than any other aspect of pre-election public spending

francescohyl13's picture

Luddite, please do not repeat personal. biased opinions time after time. You have already proved that you won't read or will ignore fact-based statements and documents that counter your views. Much like the Government in fact. You're not by any chance "a spokesperson"?

Tacitus's picture

@Luddite: *If* what you are saying about Brown and his so-called pension fund raid is correct, the government could restore the tax reliefs to private schemes. Perhaps not immediately given the economic circumstances, but they could at the very least make a statement of intent.

Instead they choose to decimate the public sector schemes, in the case of some schemes, to an extent that economics does not require them to do.

Unfortunately it is easier for them to demonise a group of workers than it is to engage in proper reasoned debate.

@IainBurnsHill: Yes you are right. There's very few facts in this debate, most of which is conducted at the average level of the saloon bar.

John M's picture

"Even if you accept the £5 billion figure, that's still only around 1/2 per cent of the money that were in pension funds at that time." Pensions Policy Institute. The Money Box pensions special is very good at debunking the idea that GB killed pensions, making it around the same as Lawson's (that no-one apparently has sufficient memory to recall), though Lawson's seems more significant to me in that by allowing companies to not pay in when times were good, their mentality towards pensions changed.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/console/b010r7c2

Seaman T's picture

The traditional strength of Public Service was its ability to attract reliable people who preferred to take the long view of life, all the way through a long career of servitude on average reward, to a very healthy retirement. The weakness of that view is that it was always based on a "Gentleman's Agreement" between the servant and his master, HMG.
Unfortunately, those halcyon days have gone. These are the cruel post Thatcher days of pre nuptual agreements, where Union is no longer a cool word and acrimonious litigation rules.
Better get pension rights written into your contract, blokes, but only believe the copy signed and witnessed by an unbiased minister, in blood.

andyg's picture

Indu Pendent.
"The issue is whether we can afford to spend money on public treats".
And what will your response be when the bin men, the street lighting, and others post a bill through your door?
Those in public service are less well paid than those in private equalivalance. From that poor pay they contribute to their pension, a double whammy. On retirement they can not claim benefits unlike the slightly better paid equal who did not save for their future.A treble whammy.

Eddy S's picture

as a fairness issue i feel the money we spend on public sector pensions should be shared equally between all people on lower incomes of pensionable age whether they have worked in the public or private sector.

we should not discriminate.

so that someone who has worked as a taxi driver all his life can share the pension of a public sector manager. this is real fairness between the public and private sector.

Iain M's picture

Chris M says "when the private sector is paying the tax that pays for the public sector's better renumeration"

Could you let HMRC know they've made a mistake, because I appear to have been paying tax for the last 30 years, and according to you only the private sector do that. When they're not avoiding/evading presumably.

stephenH's picture

IanM: indeed..me too.
Eddy S: Don't you realise that the taxpayer will be paying for all those poor people in the private sector who have been dumped from private pensions-- as they will be on top-up benefits when they retire.
Which is to say the taxpayer (including teachers binmen firemen etc) paying for crap employers.

Mr Danger's picture

Iain M, stephenH, so you pay more in taxes than you earn in salary? Then maybe you have a point.

Martybee's picture

I think that the government is assuming that GDP is on a downward spiral because if their "Defecit defying" policies

hugh markey's picture

On a couple of BBC Television political programmes, we were informed by Libdemocrat MPs that in 1926 there were approximately 9 wage-earners to every pensioner. Suspect, without any actuarial expertise, that somewhere close to 90% of these wage earners would have been fortunate to reach state pension age, 65 or 70.
Also suspect their taxes were utilised to support the occupational and private pensions of their social betters.
In those more tranquil days,Government ministers didn't have to explain matters to these very hard-working families. And they still voted for their betters.
Good, Good Old Times

Cempreepsyfet's picture

The sooner we do away with as many so-called public servants the better. And if they or anyone else doesn't like it they can just hop on the plane to Greece.

Kamadev Sargent's picture

The affordability thing was always a bit crude, but if you take it in the context that we have to have much better managed public spending to protect the economy than we've had then maybe you can make a case on affordability in part. http://www.homeimprovementfirm.com/

Tacitus's picture

This is not about affordability or, for that matter, whether it is tenable either in the eyes of Daily Mail readers or any other section of the community.

It's about reducing pension costs in order to pave the way for the privatisation of public services.

Allan Heron's picture

It is worth making the point that the graph shows the amount of pension estimated to be paid out in each year. This is NOT an indication of cos to either present or future generations of providing the benefits

Ultimately, anything is affordable if there is a will to devote the resources to it. But the fact that people are living longer does increase the costs of a pension scheme, all other things remainaing equal.

Sam's picture

Tacitus - If public services are going to be privatised then why go through all this bother? Obviously once a service is privatised they won't be needing public pensions anymore...

The affordability thing was always a bit crude, but if you take it in the context that we have to have much better managed public spending to protect the economy than we've had then maybe you can make a case on affordability in part.

I think the strongest argument though whether private sector employees should have to contribute so much when they're now being paid less on average and now have to contribute more to their own pensions.

It's interesting that Labour are not arguing against the pension reforms.

Luddite's picture

Mick D. Most public-sector workers are in defined benefit schemes that guarantee a pension equal to a certain proportion of their salary. Only 15% of the private sector workers enjoy such schemes, after Gordon Brown plundered theirs. Working longer and contributing more is simply unavoidable for all. This is about fairness, why should one worker have to work longer and receive less than another. It's alright saying that the private sector pension should be more generous, but where is the money coming from? The previous Labour government ran out of our money, as that departing Labour minster said in his pathetic little note. SORRY!! ALL THE MONEY BEING SPENT!!

AndrewM's picture

The interview has now been posted here:

http://news.bbc.co.uk/today/hi/today/newsid_9526000/9526631.stm

Tacitus's picture

@Sam: TUPE? I'm assuming that still applies.

AFAICT most of the teachers/university and local government funds are in surplus - they are in fact funded, which is why teacher friends of mine get an annual statement of the fund's investments.

OK I know about increased lifespan and so on, but I've not seen any convincing argument that these particular funds need to be decimated to the extent proposed. Some fairly modest adjustment to contributions and retirement age would probably cover it.

Why is it that nobody even tries to make the case that it's not public sector pensions that should be made worse, but private sector pensions that should be much, much, better than they currently
are.

Luddite's picture

Sam Labours not arguing against pension reform, because quite simply Labour if in government would be doing very much the same. No party can afford to ignore the “sandwich generation” read Rafael Behr well written and honesty piece. Labour should stop politicking and state their alternative to responsible government.

Allan Heron's picture

Surplus is a bit of an indeterminate phrase as well. Is that on a discontinuance basis only - i.e. if the scheme was wound up today benefits would be fully covered. Is that on the basis of some future date e.g. how well are benefits covered based on assumed salary and investment growth assumptions to cover benefits at a future date. The former is a baseline level of funding and if this is how fully funded is defined then that is a weak position to have. It would be excellent if they were fully funded on the other basis but I'd be extremely surprised if this was the case.

Private sector pensions would be much, much better than they are currently if Brown hadn't almost destroyed them by removing their tax reliefs. There's very few private schemes that are 100% funded on the discontinuance basis as a consequence,and rectifying that is a long, long term task.

Hannah Tildesley's picture

What is the source for the graph and the % of GDP data? I would be very curious to read it in it's entirety.

Luddite's picture

Tacitus most private pensions had surpluses before Gordon Brown plundered them. Government pension schemes are in surplus because they are backed by government. What the coalition government are proposing to do is close the inequity chasm between state and private sector schemes.

matthew fox's picture

Luddite seems to be struggling with the term " Affordable " in the same way he struggles to assemble the two-piece snooker cue, given to him.

He lost the assembly instructions, and it is gathering dust under his bed.

iainburnshill's picture

This has been the most fact-lite debate in many years. At last, a sane contribution. I as a beneficiary can speak only of the local government scheme, which is both funded and solvent. The truth: this government decided to reduce costs for its employer friends, started with the ununionised private sector, where it would meet least resistance, and then cynically orchestrated a campaign directed against public sector workers by portraying them as unfairly benefitting at the taxpayer's expense.

capt-price's picture

Luddite.... The question should be when are these very profittable and hugely successful private companies going to offer a better pension provision to their employees? and not support the decimation of public sector pensions.

damianneum's picture

Hi Hannah, the graph is from the government-commissioned Hutton Report (authored by former Labour cabinet minister John Hutton) you can read it online here:

http://www.hm-treasury.gov.uk/indreview_johnhutton_pensions.htm

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