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Alex Salmond’s dilemma

Does the election result in Scotland threaten the Union?

That Alex Salmond "bestrides the Scottish political world like a colossus", as the novelist and historian Allan Massie puts it in the Times this morning (£), is indisputable. Massie describes Thursday's elections for the devolved Scottish parliament, in which the Scottish National Party won a clear majority, the "most extraordinary" in his lifetime.

Indeed, he goes so far as to say that the Union looks "far shakier" today than it did a fortnight ago. Yet the implications of the SNP victory (and the routing of Scottish Labour in seats it previously regarded as safe) are nevertheless ambiguous.

Massie reminds us that the election was, in effect, a referendum on Salmond's leadership (and the SNP ran an unabashedly presidential campaign that left the hapless Labour leader, Iain Gray, without a prayer), not on independence. Salmond's dilemma is this: "He is on top of the Scottish political world, yet opinion polls consistently show that only about a third of Scots want independence."

Salmond has a delicate calculation to make, therefore, though some of his colleagues clearly see the result as a mandate for a referendum on independence in the near future. The SNP justice minister, Kenny McAskill, declared in his victory speech in Edinburgh East that: "It is time for Scotland to take responsibility and become a nation once again." Salmond, though, is too canny a politician not to recognise the seductions of hubris.

But whatever timetable for a referendum the SNP ultimately decides upon, the election in Scotland has merely emphasised something that we knew already: the United Kingdom's constitutional settlement is a botched job. Shortly after the formation of the Tory-Lib Dem coalition government last year, David Runciman wrote an excellent piece in the London Review of Books mulling the likely consequences of an election in which Labour had lost England to the Conservatives but held its end up in Scotland.

"What no coalition of any stripe can change," Runciman wrote, "is the underlying reality of the situation: at present Labour can only govern England from Scotland, and the Tories can only govern Scotland from England."

The question we now have to ask, as Salmond luxuriates in an overall majority in the devolved parliament north of the border, is whether, at the next general election, Labour will be capable even of doing that. "The one result that could have signalled the end of the United Kingdom", Runciman argued, was "if Tory dominance in England had been matched by SNP dominance in Scotland, leading to a deal on independence which would have squeezed Labour out in both". The outcome of the Scottish election might just have made such a result in 2015 more likely.

35 comments

greg's picture

@Tom. Scotland independence groups tend to look at toward Scandinavian small population high resource nations as inspiration. Scotland does after all have a lot of oil

Bob's picture

Can we have Berwick upon Tweed back now?

jie4v7i14's picture

Somehow, in a referendum, I think Scotland will vote to stay in the union, but that depends on how much austerity they suffer in the next few years.

And Labour will lose out in a big way if Scotland leaves, but that is how it goes. They will have to be stiff upper-lipped about it and chew the bullet. Only worry is if Cameron thinks Scotland leaving will be good for his party, and promote it subliminally with certain policies.

AliG's picture

@Tom

The main difference between Scotland and Quebec is that Scotland has substantially more in terms of natural resources. The big three include: -

- Oil and Gas revenue from the north sea
- revenue from whisky exports
- Renewables

It is a more accurate to compare Scotland to Norway. Two countries, similar population, similar resources. The difference is that Norway actually has control of its own resources.

Also, to address a myth, as a result of these revenues Scotland pays more into the UK treasury than what it gets back via the Barnett Formula (the pocket money for the Scottish Parliament).

Scotland would and could flourish as an independent nation. However, the facts are so obscured by the scaremongering and fear tactics employed by those who vehemently oppose it, you would think Scotland would become a post apocalyptic abyss if independence happened! It reminds me of the Goebells quote “If you tell a big enough Lie, and keep on repeating it, in the end people will come to believe it.”

Lox's picture

Swatandra, I've yet to read a post from you that's within shouting distance of being informed.

Tom, this whole debate about who pays for who is completely sterile. One type of scot nat will claim that england is sunk without scotland, an english unionist will claim that england keeps us afloat. We're both developed countries with educated populations, developed infrastructures, and an industrial culture. Don't worry, we'll both do better once the whole redundant political structure of the UK is put to sleep.

Henrik's picture

Given the extreme self-hatred of the guilt ridden British "intellectual" there will hardly be any UK in the future, nor any England, just some "Celtic"homelands performing folk "traditions" (i.e. 19th century imports from various parts of Europe) and an urban waste land, probably governed by some fascist troglodytes.

branseer's picture

british anti scottish racist dominance of scotland is over.many comments ive read are exactly why scotland voted for the snp, scotland has been treated as a northern beggar colony by the british establishment egged on by the thieving corrupt quislinq lackey scots labour servile mass murdering cohorts such as brown and blair,wake up and smell the haggis,you all have short memories.the reality is the uk has been drinking from the scottish quaich.the nectar has stopped flowing.no more.if engurland is so great with the finest minds.then why dont you go it alone??????????

Boyd's picture

@Alig and Tom
In a global world facing climate change European trade to and from the emerging markets of the Far East will go through container ports in the deep water ports of the North of Scotland and Norway.

The Artic route is 6,000km shorter, saves time and money and has no pirates. The Chinese and Koreans are already building the new generation of ice breaking container ships.

While the British-Westminster-Military Establishment builds aircraft carriers with nae planes. How smart is that. In Scotland we are envisioning an entirely different economy. Salmond is not just a canny politician but his previous trade was an energy economist.

In the 21st century Scottish INDEPENDENCE is all about the ECONOMY and GEOGRAPHY and what your nation aspires to do in the future.

Westminster can keep its economy of wars, Royal weddings, hedge fund casinos, credit cards and filling new houses with stuff. Where's the country's aspiration and future economy it that.

swatantra's picture

Salmond has drawn on his vast cosmopolitan experience whilst serving as a Westminster MP nd brought that to Holyrood. Thats why he is so adept. In the same way that Dewar was before him. Same could be said of Alun Michael and Rodric Morgan in Cardif and Peter Robinson and Paisly in Stormont. All these leaders had personality and charisma.
If the Scots break the Union then they will become lesser States like Iceland Denmark and Papua New Guinea. The Scots need to be told the truth. But there is an argument to move towards a Federal Stucture for the Union, and I support that.

Stuart Eels's picture

My DAVE aren't you the big boy, you can blog in capital letters well done.

Why is it that embittered people like you constantly come on here complaining about the "Majority" who do not want an independent Scotland and who I assume "Live mainly south of the border." to quote your words.

The vast majority of the English who come on here are a damn sight more polite than you and the chip on shoulder brigade, see Ehtch Tee post above yours, who see us as some sort of oppressors. The sure fire way to Inderendence for you Scots is to allow the English to take part in the referendum, you would win by a landslide!

I would go further, let's have a nationwide referendum for the complete breakup of this past it UK!

branseer's picture

swatantra swatantra.grow up wake up.everything you think about scotland is wrong your mind is in default mode.the brit propaganda machine has poisoned your mind.come to scotland make up your on mind dont believe the british media its colonial racist and predjudiced run by fat greedy sweaty men.

Mulligrubs's picture

Collosus is overdoing the post election gush a bit - but the man does have a mandate. So Alex - Scotland has spoken - let's have the referendum now. The Union? W'ere modernising (AKA destroying) the NHS - what's so sacred about an outdated Union? We'll still all be Europeans together and there's at least an element of democracy in that. What's your plan to keep the Union together Dave? "Silence" - came the stern reply

Stuart Eels's picture

branseer, you are the type of Scot that makes me long for "your independence" I take it that you have documented evidenece that we have been drinking from the Scottish Quaich. If you haven't then you will of course prove my point. We would willingly go it alone if only we were given the chance!

Why don't you try just the once to be polite in your arguements, you might find people more willing to debate with you.

Lox

You will never get a meaningful response from swatandra nandanwar, who seems to have an opinion on everything. I've tried and it's a waste of time.

Lox's picture

Swatandra, what the hell is wrong with becoming like Denmark? How are we going to become like Papua New Guinea? Is our physical and social infrastructure going to disappear overnight?

"The scots need to be told the truth". What truth is that: that we need to be looked after by someone else?
Go on, defend your statement-for once. Otherwise, you're tacitly admitting that your posts are, for the most part, pompous noise.

Stu's picture

so does this mean that if Scotland go for independence then Labour would be squeezed in to a smaller party?

jie4v7i14's picture

Alex Samond, and SNP. fuck England, and then go from there. Redivert oil wealth to a new Aberdeen oil exchnage that you should set up, with advice from the norwegians how they run things. ENGLISH ARE BLOOD SUCKING Sunts. Song,
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7ajHezlJq-A

Alan Collis's picture

Alex Salmond "bestrides the Scottish political world like a colossus",
Really? More an over-sizes Lilliputian.

Lox's picture

You sound like a bitter wee man, Alan.

Keir's picture

If Labour in England is effectively disfranchised, it is an act of war.

Fucking sort it.

Iain's picture

Try coming at it from another angle. The Union is merely a piece of broken, worn out software. England as well as Scotland (but not apparently Cameron) can see its in ruins.

Alex Salmond may relish the idea of a battle for independence, but he will never win it if pitted against the forces of the establishment, their media allies, and all of those, like the BBC, who profit from keeping the sinking hulk afloat a little longer..

What is more likely to happen is that the union will fall apart of it's own accord, and all sides will come to the table to negotiate something better, a new federation of sovereign countries who voluntarily decide how much, if any, of their powers to pool to the common advantage.

What Cameron wants to resist with every fibre of his being is the redundancy of the Westminster boss class, with it's post imperialist delusions. We can do without any of these.

iainburnshill's picture

Sorry about the grammatical errors. They are not mine, but from some defective correction facility used by NS.

Lox's picture

Thanks for the advice, Stuart Eels. I've challenged Swatandra a couple of times to justify his ill-informed ramblings, but no response, alas. The law of probability says that he must get something right sometime, though. Maybe tomorrow, Swatandra.

swatantra's picture

After the triumph comes the collapse. Salmond should be preparing for the time when the honeymoon ends. Its bound to come, for any Party, because stuff happens. It happened to Blair Brown and Cameron. I give him 6 to 18 months when he'll be wondering where it all went wrong.
He needs a court jester to occasionally knock him on the head and warn him of the tough times ahead.

swatantra's picture

What Labour needs are some really big hitters in Holyroode, if it is ever to recover its strength. People like Alastair Darling or Jim Murphy or even Gordon Brown. If seats can be found for them there then they would make a substantial impact in Scotland and better serve Labour there than at Westminster.

Am Firinn's picture

First up, It's Holyrood, without the "e". However, why would they make a substantial impact in Scotland? What makes you think we would have voted for them? Gordon Brown was out campaigning in Kirkcaldy and look what happened!

Tom's picture

Not to sound like an evil rightwing talkradio preseneter. But if Scotland was independent, how would they function? What's the strongest part of their economy?

Isn't this a bit like Quebec wanting independence from the rest of Canada? It's one thing to have Sean Connery doing adverts for Scottish independence. But that doesn't exactly pay the bills once and if you get that.

Herbert's picture

England could donate the Queen (and her successors) to an independent Scotland so they could benefit from the tourism.

stevem1's picture

There is fight brewing between the Scots and this Tory led coalition. If the Scots see that they are being stuffed as they were under Thatcher then opinions will change and they will go for independence. As net contributors to the UK economy they can make it work. There are small nations like the Swedes who do OK and the Scots can as well. I would love to see a nation run on social democratic lines on our northern borders. A nation that rejects nuclear weapons and wars without end.

grinningjohnson's picture

How is this a dilemma for Salmond?

DAVE a real natter's picture

TO THE "MAJORITY" WHO DO NOT WANT AN INDEPENDANT SCOTLAND AND WHO I ASSUME "LIVE MAINLY SOUTH OF THE BORDER" I WOULD ASK A SHORT QUESTION, WHICH IS...........IF WE ARE SUCH A POOR NEIGHBOURS, GETTING MORE THAN OUR FAIR SHARE OF THE "CAKE" WHY ARE THE SO DESPERATE FOR US TO REMAIN IN THE UNION AND TO CARRY ON SUBSIDISING US ??.

Arthur Williamson's picture

Labour are the ones who have a dilemma here. They usually acquire about 50 MPs from Scotland at a General Election, therefore if Scotland became independent, Labour`s prospects for a return to Downing Street are severely dented.

REPAY's picture

I am sentimental about the Union, however, Scotland is now a lala land living off an unsustainable public sector economy (ditto some of northern England & Wales.) It seems to have escaped the laws of economics that apply to the rest of us. It could be viable as a separate unit, although a lot poorer without the Barnet formula, and safely within the euro I am sure the EU would turn it into a northern Greece with small subsidies and draconian spending reforms. Overrepresented in Westminster and with its own assembly its removal would bring about some much needed equity in the British polity.

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