That cabinet spat in full

Chris Huhne: “People will draw their own conclusions about your failure to distance yourself from th

Hats off to the Spectator's James Forsyth for getting there first, and for that extra bit of colour: the George Osborne-attributed putdown of Chris Huhne and his "sub-Jeremy Paxman interview" style.

Now, thanks to a panel in today's Times (£), we have, in full, the alleged cabinet exchange between Huhne, Cameron and Osborne:

Chris Huhne [placing No campaign leaflets on the cabinet table] to David Cameron: Will you disassociate yourself from these leaflets? Will you sack any Tory official who produced them?

David Cameron: I'm not responsible for the No campaign, I can only talk for the Conservative No campaign

CH, turning to George Osborne: Will you disassociate yourself from them?

George Osborne: This was always going to be the most difficult time for the coalition

CH: But will you disassociate yourself from the way these leaflets attack Nick Clegg?

GO: This is cabinet, not some sub-Jeremy Paxman interview. This is not an appropriate subject for cabinet

CH: People will draw their own conclusions about your failure to distance yourself from these attacks on the Deputy Prime Minister.

For the Thunderer, "The discipline that has held the coalition together for a year was in tatters last night," while the Guardian talks of "extraordinary scenes in cabinet" and the Daily Telegraph elects to use that tabloid favourite, describing the events as a "bust-up".

Predictably, perhaps, Huhne has replaced Vince Cable as the most likely to exit the cabinet next – his price fell from 5/1 to 4/1 overnight on Smarkets. But, like Cable before him, Huhne will need to consider what influence he can hope to have from the back benches and may conclude that he is better off fighting from within. For now.

I suggested at the weekend that Huhne's attack on Margaret Thatcher in the pages of the Observer were part of a long game for the Energy Secretary, following his willingness to duel with both Sayeeda Warsi and Osborne over the tenor of the AV campaign. But the latest outburst, now that it is in the public domain, is high-risk, especially if the government can portray him as "semi-detached" and a serial troublemaker.

It's worth noting that Osborne's people – it seems – were quite happy for the exchange to get out. And, as Forsyth notes, Osborne "didn't try and defuse the conversation with a joke or anything like that".

Jon Bernstein, former deputy editor of New Statesman, is a digital strategist and editor. He tweets @Jon_Bernstein. 

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Who will win in Manchester Gorton?

Will Labour lose in Manchester Gorton?

The death of Gerald Kaufman will trigger a by-election in his Manchester Gorton seat, which has been Labour-held since 1935.

Coming so soon after the disappointing results in Copeland – where the seat was lost to the Tories – and Stoke – where the party lost vote share – some overly excitable commentators are talking up the possibility of an upset in the Manchester seat.

But Gorton is very different to Stoke-on-Trent and to Copeland. The Labour lead is 56 points, compared to 16.5 points in Stoke-on-Trent and 6.5 points in Copeland. (As I’ve written before and will doubtless write again, it’s much more instructive to talk about vote share rather than vote numbers in British elections. Most of the country tends to vote in the same way even if they vote at different volumes.)

That 47 per cent of the seat's residents come from a non-white background and that the Labour party holds every council seat in the constituency only adds to the party's strong position here. 

But that doesn’t mean that there is no interest to be had in the contest at all. That the seat voted heavily to remain in the European Union – around 65 per cent according to Chris Hanretty’s estimates – will provide a glimmer of hope to the Liberal Democrats that they can finish a strong second, as they did consistently from 1992 to 2010, before slumping to fifth in 2015.

How they do in second place will inform how jittery Labour MPs with smaller majorities and a history of Liberal Democrat activity are about Labour’s embrace of Brexit.

They also have a narrow chance of becoming competitive should Labour’s selection turn acrimonious. The seat has been in special measures since 2004, which means the selection will be run by the party’s national executive committee, though several local candidates are tipped to run, with Afzal Khan,  a local MEP, and Julie Reid, a local councillor, both expected to run for the vacant seats.

It’s highly unlikely but if the selection occurs in a way that irritates the local party or provokes serious local in-fighting, you can just about see how the Liberal Democrats give everyone a surprise. But it’s about as likely as the United States men landing on Mars any time soon – plausible, but far-fetched. 

Stephen Bush is special correspondent at the New Statesman. His daily briefing, Morning Call, provides a quick and essential guide to British politics.