Osbornomics, part 94

George, say after me: Britain is not Portugal (or Greece or Ireland).

One thing you can say about George Osborne is that he's consistent (though of course consistency, as Emerson put it, is the "hobgoblin of little minds"). Since well before the general election last year, Osborne has been conjuring the spectre of Greece and its debt crisis to justify the Conservatives' accelerated deficit reduction programme. Sometimes the mantra varies slightly and Osborne adduces Portugal as an example, rather than Greece.

And he was at it again on The Andrew Marr Show on BBC1 this morning, saying that Britain enjoys "German interest rates despite a Portuguese deficit" because of the government's austerity measures. But, as my colleague George Eaton pointed out last month when the Chancellor was ruminating on Portugal's request for an EU bailout, "Britain, unlike Portugal, Greece and Ireland, can afford to meet its debts over a sustained period of time (even under his plans, debt will be 68.8 per cent of GDP in 2014-2015)."

To his credit, Marr reminded Osborne that demand in the British economy remains sluggish, a point that George (Eaton not Osborne) also made:

There is, however, one big similarity between Portugal and the UK. They were both among just five EU countries to suffer negative growth in the final quarter of 2010 (the others were Greece, Ireland and Denmark) . . . The Chancellor may claim that Labour lacks a "credible deficit reduction plan" but, without growth, so does he.

And the 0.5 per cent GDP growth recorded in the first quarter of 2011 didn't alter the picture: it merely partly corrected a contraction of the same size in the previous quarter.

Jonathan Derbyshire is Managing Editor of Prospect. He was formerly Culture Editor of the New Statesman.

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5 things Labour has blamed for the Copeland by-election defeat

Other than Labour, of course. 

In the early hours of Friday morning, Labour activists in Copeland received a crushing blow, when they lost a long-held constituency to the Tories

As the news sank in, everyone from the leadership down began sharing their views on what went wrong. 

Some Labour MPs who had done the door knock rounds acknowledged voters felt the party was divided, and were confused about its leadership.

But others had more imaginative reasons for defeat:

1. Tony Blair

Shadow Chancellor John McDonnell told Radio 4’s Today programme that: “I don’t think it’s about individuals”. But he then laid into Tony Blair, saying: “We can’t have a circumstance again where a week before the by-election a former leader of the party attacks the party itself.”

2. Marginal seats

In a flurry of tweets, shadow Justice secretary Richard Burgon wanted everyone to know that Copeland was a marginal seat and always had been since it was created in 1983.

Which might be true, but most commentators were rather more struck by the fact Labour MPs had managed to overcome that marginality and represent the area for eighty years. 

3. The nuclear industry

In response to the defeat, Corbyn loyalist Paul Flynn tweeted: “Copeland MP is pro-nuclear right winger. No change there.” He added that Copeland was a “unique pro-nuclear seat”. 

In fact, when The New Statesman visited Copeland, we found residents far more concerned about the jobs the nuclear industry provides than any evangelical fervour for splitting atoms.

4. The political establishment

Addressing journalists the day after the defeat, Corbyn said voters were “let down by the political establishment”. So let down, they voted for the party of government.

He also blamed the “corporate controlled media”. 

5. Brexit

Corbyn's erstwhile rival Owen Smith tweeted that the defeat was "more evidence of the electoral foolhardiness of Labour chasing Brexiteers down the rabbit hole". It's certainly the case that Brexit hasn't been kind to Labour's share of the vote in Remain-voting by-elections like Richmond. But more than 56 per cent of Cumbrians voted Leave, and in Copeland the percentage was the highest, at 62 per cent. That's an awful lot of Brexiteers not to chase...

I'm a mole, innit.