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Osbornomics, part 94

George, say after me: Britain is not Portugal (or Greece or Ireland).

One thing you can say about George Osborne is that he's consistent (though of course consistency, as Emerson put it, is the "hobgoblin of little minds"). Since well before the general election last year, Osborne has been conjuring the spectre of Greece and its debt crisis to justify the Conservatives' accelerated deficit reduction programme. Sometimes the mantra varies slightly and Osborne adduces Portugal as an example, rather than Greece.

And he was at it again on The Andrew Marr Show on BBC1 this morning, saying that Britain enjoys "German interest rates despite a Portuguese deficit" because of the government's austerity measures. But, as my colleague George Eaton pointed out last month when the Chancellor was ruminating on Portugal's request for an EU bailout, "Britain, unlike Portugal, Greece and Ireland, can afford to meet its debts over a sustained period of time (even under his plans, debt will be 68.8 per cent of GDP in 2014-2015)."

To his credit, Marr reminded Osborne that demand in the British economy remains sluggish, a point that George (Eaton not Osborne) also made:

There is, however, one big similarity between Portugal and the UK. They were both among just five EU countries to suffer negative growth in the final quarter of 2010 (the others were Greece, Ireland and Denmark) . . . The Chancellor may claim that Labour lacks a "credible deficit reduction plan" but, without growth, so does he.

And the 0.5 per cent GDP growth recorded in the first quarter of 2011 didn't alter the picture: it merely partly corrected a contraction of the same size in the previous quarter.

32 comments

Eddy S's picture

@Gracie. the fact is that during the last decade we gained significant tax revenue through booming finance and property sectors. the problem was that gordon was smart enough to devise the golden rules and not sticking to them has led to the current problems being worse than they should be.

we relied too much on booming finance and property sectors for our tax revenues and booms in those sectors were never going to last forever, and when those booms ended it had an obvious impact on our tax revenues. the fact is we should have never put all eggs in one basket (we had been happy to enjoy lower inflation through cheap chinese imports but our manufacturing suffered signficantly and obviously increase in debt increased our feel good factor) but we should have put much more money aside and followed gordons golden rules. the best thing gordon done was make the bank of england independent, but made mistakes on regulation which meant he went further trying to protect banks from his own country (RBS and HBOS).

btw - the easy fixes of near zero rates, printing money and even more debt will lead to near meltdown in the global economy within the next few years and those same fixes will no longer work - as debt will begin to get a whole lot more expensive (as the chinese are no longer willing to finance the west's debts).

Mike S's picture

When is Labour (and the Lib Dems) going to challenge this absurd narrative? Will Hutton's piece in today's Observer is a sustained lament that Osborne's economic analysis is just not being challenged adequately. It should be Miliband's most urgent priority.

Shinsei67's picture

"Britain, unlike Portugal, Greece and Ireland, can afford to meet its debts over a sustained period of time (even under his plans, debt will be 68.8 per cent of GDP in 2014-2015)."

Of course we can afford to fund a national debt of 70%. We can afford to fund a debt of 100%, or 130%.

But we can't afford to fund this level of debt AND also fund the current level of expenditure on health, education, welfare, police etc.

£70bn of interest payments annually by 2015 even on Osborne's deficit reduction projections.

If you want to spend £100bn on interest every year where are you going to find £30bn of cuts or raise £30bn of extra tax ?

Alastair's picture

We may have to agree to disagree about the pace or extent of debt reduction. But there are two parts of the narrative that Labour should have attacked far more convincingly and the LibDems should never have bought into. Before the sky fell in, the Tories were committed to the same levels of public expenditure (and therefore the same structural deficit) as Labour and wanted less, not more, banking regulation. And would, if in power, probably have felt just as obliged to bail out the banks.

But the mud has been allowed to stick.

Mathew's picture

I'm sorry you simply fail to understand the basic economic premise that you need growth to grow.

How would you counter the reduced consumer confidence that is leading to reduced business output?

You do realise that if people lose their jobs tax goes down and benefit payments go up.

Warren's picture

It is essential that Labour needs to urgently challenge the Tories and Clegg's erroneous claims that the UK was on the edge of an economic precipice last May, and that the too deep, too fast spending cuts have brought us back from the brink. If this argument is not defeated quickly then all is lost for Miliband and Labour. Ed Balls can't do it alone, a united and concerted fight back is required by all Labour Party representatives on this most important point.

Mike S's picture

No one is denying the deficit needs to be tackled, Nick. The argument is about how to go about it.

Shinsei67's picture

"No one is denying the deficit needs to be tackled, Nick. The argument is about how to go about it."

So why the continual daily criticism of the whole premise of Osborne's policies from the left ?

No one would deny that, say, trying to eliminate the deficit in one year would be "too far, too fast".

The Tory plan is really only marginally deeper and really no slower than Darling's plan and yet the left seems to claim that it is entirely misguided.

Shinsei67's picture

Alastair:

"Before the sky fell in, the Tories were committed to the same levels of public expenditure (and therefore the same structural deficit) as Labour and wanted less, not more, banking regulation."

Whether this is true or not it is largely irrelevant.

Gordon Brown was fully supportive of the policy of shadowing the Deutschmark that led to the embarrassment of Black Wednesday.

Did Brown ever take any of the flak for being wrong about this ? No, the Tories took all the blame as they were the ones in charge.

Saying that the opposition would have done the same, or done something even worse, just doesn't work.

Luddite's picture

Hopefully the Coalition will collapse and we'll have Labour back asap. Osborne knows nothing about economics.

DK's picture

Nick: I see your point that saying that the opposition would have done the same or worse is politically ineffective, even when it's true (like now). But the fact is that the current government is not using its power to take ANY steps to prevent a repeat bubble-and-burst scenario, quite the contrary. I agree that they're only marginally different from Labour, but that's a critique of the latter more than anything else. Finance and speculation need to be reined in, public services protected--above all the NHS, transport, and schools and universities. The money is there: it simply needs to be raised through changes to tax policy. Extremist free-market doctrine, instigated by Thatcher and Reagan and intensified after the fall of the USSR, hasn't served us well, and New Labour is to blame for buying into it. It's time for new ideas, even if they seem old.

Dave C's picture

Nick,

The Tories took the UK into the ERM without consulting France and Germany properly and at an exchange rate that they were unprepared to defend.

As I recall, had Kinnock won the 1992 election, chancellor John Smith was set to renegotiate the rate to something more realistic.

Black Wednesday was to a large extent a self-inflicted wound. The financial crisis of 2007-8 was foreseen by very few people, least of all the bankers.

Shinsei67's picture

DK "The money is there: it simply needs to be raised through changes to tax policy."

What are these tax policy changes ? We currently have pretty much the highest top tax rate in the developed world. Tax evasion is being dealt with via things like the recently signed banking disclosure with Switzerland. VAT is at EU norms. Sin taxes are high by world standards.

What's left ?

Mike S's picture

'The Tory plan is really only marginally deeper and really no slower than Darling's plan and yet the left seems to claim that it is entirely misguided.'

Part of the reason for this, Nick, if that Labour repudiated Darling's plan some while ago. It is another misrepresentation peddled by Cameron and Osborne that Darling's plan remains Labour policy. In fairness, the same figures are regularly trotted out by Clegg too - but they are still inaccurate.

The claim (for example, that Labour cuts would only be 2bn less than Tory cuts) ignores these changes that Ed Miliband has made to the Darling plan. Labour would still halve the structural deficit over four years but it would do so through a 60:40 ratio of spending cuts to tax rises, rather than the planned 70:30 split. As a result, the difference between Labour's cuts and the coalition's would be greater than the claimed £2bn this year. The switch to a 60:40 ratio means that total departmental cuts have fallen from £44bn to £34bn, compared to the coalition's cuts of £61bn.

Even if we accept the claim, the coalition's decision to cut spending by £6.2bn in 2010/2011 (when Labour would have made no cuts), means that the true gap between the parties' spending plans is £8.2bn, not £2bn.

Rather like Cameron at PMQs each week, the country is basing its prejudices on a whole host of lies.

Mike S's picture

Oh - and the banking disclosure agreements will do very little to deal with the matter of tax evasion.

Mike S's picture

In relation to tax avaoidance, read 'Out of sight' and illuminating article by Richard Murphy in the London Review of Books of April 14th of this year. His opening paragraph reads:

'In his budget last month George Osborne announced that if in the future a UK company runs its internal banking arrangements through a tax haven subsidiary it will benefit from a special tax rate of just 5.75 per cent of the resulting profits. The rate is exceptionally low: the same activity undertaken in the UK is taxed at 23 per cent. It is a change that will delight corporate tax avoiders everywhere: the UK will now condone the use of tax havens in locations such as the Cayman Islands, Jersey and the Isle of Man. It is expected that by 2016 more than one sixth of corporation tax will come from such offshore activities.'

Shinsei67's picture

@ MikeS

The changes to the taxation of UK-based companies overseas activities is to stop these companies moving offshore permanently.

The alternative would be just an even bigger hole in the Treasury's tax take.

And the recent Swiss bank disclosure agreement is expected to raise billions.

Similar arrangements, under Darling's regime, with the Channel Islands raised billions.

DK's picture

Nick, First, UK taxes, if I'm not mistaken, are lower than in many European countries. Second, taxes are too low everywhere in the world. We need less income inequality in the UK and throughout the world, and we need higher taxes and more regulation to accomplish this. What we have right now is a regime of legalised theft and extorsion, profiting banks, cartels, and speculators. It's time for the productive majority to flex its muscles, and get a fair deal.

Clive Wolfe's picture

Why are the left so idiotic to think that spending cuts were not needed. Only in their minds would the UK not go bankrupt... After 13 years of scoialist economic mis-managment finaly we have the chance to get the country back on track.

Also if Brown hadn't sold off gold reserves at a apalingly low rate, then the cuts would not have needed to be so low.

Dave C's picture

Clive Wolfe,

Now the price is high (for another few weeks at least) why not sell off the UK gold reserves? It would raise $13.8 billion.

The cost of rescuing the banks was £850 billion but the $13.8 billion would still come in handy.

Mike S's picture

I see Nick - problem is, Osborne is also making it easier for companies to move offshore. Indeed, his own family trust is an offshore fund.

Cunning plan indeed - but all rather transparent really.

matthew fox's picture

I take it conservatives are aware 4000 businesses went bust for the first quarter of 2011, a 4% increase on Q4 2010.

Clive Wolfe's picture

Dave C,

$13.8 billion would still be a welcome boost, just a shame that socialist/unionist mismanagment got us into this mess.

Hopefully we can get ourselves out and the socialists will finally learn that it doesn't work... I doubit though.

As soon as Labour come back into power its spend, spend, spend on its Union lackies

Mike S's picture

'socialist/unionist mismanagment got us into this mess'

LOL - the banks had nothing to do with it of course.....

Presumably the same 'socialist/unionist' mismanagement was responsible for the financial crisis in the US and elsewhere as well?

Extraordinary nonsense.

hugh markey's picture

Hopefully, George is still mastering Lord Hume's matchbox of economic formulae; or is it magic spells? Gordon Brown, everybody's favourite uncle, also authored a book with many proposed solutions to the globe's economic turmoil. Let's hope George is not cribbing.

Matchstick Men

DK's picture

Clive: if austerity economics leads the global economy to a second massive crash--something many non-socialist economists find likely--then Socialism will very possibly recover its role as a major political force, to the benefit of all. Given your values, I'd advise you to get Keynesian before it's too late. That's your best hope!

Mike S's picture

Hugh - I guess you're having trouble spelling your surname.

I think you'll find it is Malarkey.

Eddy S's picture

debt will start to get seriously expensive when we start to see some major defaults (this will surely happen) and rates will shoot up.

the UK enjoyed bouyant tax revenues from booming finance and property sectors, this is when we should have ran a budget surplus according to gordons golden rules - we all know this did not happen.

the US fed is technically bankrupt too - so expect gold to rise further, the chinese don't want to buy western debt anymore - with less buyers out there expect the price of debt to rise - and one more thing we shouldn't expect banks to buy government debt either as the one holding the debt baby will surely suffer.

whatever happens expect the domino effect from government debt exposures to explode western economies. the 2008 crisis was averted with printing money, low interest rates and more debt but we won't have these options next time!

Eddy S's picture

one very important aspect worth noting is that with rising inflation lower government spending is a major factor keeping interest rates lower for longer - this will help a debt based economy such as ours - as we pay less interest on our debts.

this will mean that our mortgage rates will stay lower for longer - this has been the most significant factor in keeping most households solvent and this is why there is less repossesions in the UK (higher government spending would mean more home reposessions!).

Clive Wolfe's picture

Mike S: yes the banking colapse happened, but if it were not for the 'socialist/unionist mismanagment' we would not be in an almost imposible amount of debt and then we could have re-invested money into the economey - alas there was no money as it had been all spent on public sector workers to try and provide Labour with a core of voters now that the working man has turned away from the fat cat unions

DK: austerity economics is much less likley to lead to a second slump, and would not have been neccessary if not for the hediout waste and mismanagment of the economey in the 'boom years'

Gracie's picture

@ Mike S 08 May 2011 at 11:55

Mike I really cannot say how much I agree with this, we must challenge this absurd nonsense of Osborne's and expose him for what he is and the mess he is now in the process of making the British economy. Labour ran that ridiculously long leadership campaign and literally allowed the Tories to cement their lies about the economy in people's minds, I don't know if we can ever change those minds now, but you are right this should be Ed Miliband's top priority, he and Ed Balls need to hammer this home.

Gracie's picture

Clive Wolfe I see you have fallen for the Tory line. Yaaaawwwnn. It was not socialist/unions mismanagement, how on earth do you work that one out?

Right up until the crash Cameron and Osborne were pledging to match Labour's spending, pound for pound, when Gordon Brown said he wanted more regulation in the financial markets, Cameron jumped in screaming we needed LESS not more regulation, when the banking crisis came, Osborne was like a bunny caught in the headlamps, hadn't a clue what to do about it and Cameron started c screaming that we needed 'more' banking regulation, there is a film of him doing just this. Cameron and Osborne would NOT have bailed the British banks out, they would have let businesses fail, bankruptcies, home repossessions, job losses, pension losses and savings losses. Strange how Osborne's policy had changed when it came to the UK BORROWING £10bn to LOAN (which will never be repaid) to Ireland to bail thier banks out though! Duplicitous or what? Osborne's preferred economy (he said) was the "Celtic tiger" he was off to Eire to listen and learn about how to run an economy. All I can say thank God he was not in power at the time or we will now be with Ireland on the economic scrap heap. Apart from that I would just like to reiterate:

GLOBAL financial Crisis...INTERNATIONAL Banking crisis.GLOBAL financial Crisis...INTERNATIONAL Banking crisis.GLOBAL financial Crisis...INTERNATIONAL Banking crisis.GLOBAL financial Crisis...INTERNATIONAL Banking crisis.GLOBAL financial Crisis...INTERNATIONAL Banking crisis.GLOBAL financial Crisis...INTERNATIONAL Banking crisis.GLOBAL financial Crisis...INTERNATIONAL Banking crisis.

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