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“No campaign used made-up figures”, says David Blunkett

The former home secretary admits that the £250m figure was invented, as coalition tensions run high.

 

By tomorrow, the AV referendum will be a thing of the past. However, the same cannot be said of the splits it has opened up in the coalition.

Today's Times (£) quotes David Blunkett, the former Labour home secretary, admitting that the No campaign's figure putting the cost of AV at £250m was "made up". He said:

We are in the middle of an election campaign. People in elections use made-up figures. I have never used the £250m figure. It [AV] would undoubtedly cost more but I have used an extra £90m.

Given that the only cost of which we can be certain is the £82m spent on the referendum (as Full Fact reported in April), the figure is even more misleading than Blunkett claims.

This open admission that the figure is "made up" will put fuel on the fire of furious Liberal Democrats. Chris Huhne's anger over the claim that costly electronic voting machines would be introduced even boiled over to cabinet this week, when he challenged David Cameron and George Osborne to disown the claims. And, lest we forget, he threatened legal action last month, saying:

It is frankly worrying if you have colleagues, [whom] you have respected and who you have worked well with, who are making claims which have no foundation in truth whatsoever. If they don't come clean on this I am sure the law courts will.

The Electoral Commission said at the time that it was powerless to do anything, as electoral law covers false claims against candidates, but referendums have none. It will be interesting to see if Huhne finds another way to make good his threat. Either way, Blunkett's comments will add insult to injury, confirming as it does the sense that the No campaign did not play fair. An admission from a senior politician that the campaign – and, by extension, the senior Tories running it – lied is potentially explosive to coalition relations.

Anger in Nick Clegg's party at the way that the No camp directed its campaign will certainly be running high after last-minute polls suggested a resounding defeat for AV. A Guardian/ICM poll gives the No to AV campaign a 36 per cent lead, while a Sun/YouGov survey gives it a 20-point margin.

The Lib Dems are also expected to take a hammering in the local elections happening at the same time.

At the moment, it looks unlikely that anyone within the party will challenge Clegg's leadership after today's drumming – but the door is wide open if anyone should decide to.

57 comments

Tim Longman's picture

Well the No campaign have proved yet again that it's easy to make Labour Turkeys vote for Christmas........ Though telephone canvassing yesterday I did get to speak to one voter who told me "I'm Labour to the core so if David Cameron says NO I say YES". At least he had his head screwed on.

richie263's picture

it was a crap campaign from both sides over a crap voting system. who cares

richie263's picture

@theoldbrewer

"Nick, It's 50% + 1 vote of the ballot papers/votes/preferences at the last round of counting. If some voters have not expressed all the preferences that they are entitled to their ballot papers are deemed to have expired"

i don't agree at all with what you are saying people can get elected on way under the 50% mark if peoples later preferences have already been removed from the selections their votes are not counted. you might aswell have your vote, all who finish 3rd or less get binned and the remaining 2 work out what % each has and claim we have a winner over the 50% of remaining votes left.

FintonStack's picture

@Nick

Voting machines aren't used in Scottish elections. And since Scottish elections don't use AV, what would the relevance be, even if they were?

OldBiddie's picture

The answer, sadly, would appear to be: Not Enough.

Willp's picture

Australia’s elections under AV cost three times more than ours do. When preferential voting systems were introduced in Scotland and London, expensive vote counting machines were bought in at a cost of millions. That’s without even counting the need for more polling stations and election staff because AV ballots take longer to complete. An AV system would cost more than FPTP if only because multiple counts would cost more in the wages of those doing the counting.

OldBiddie's picture

Sorry, the above was in answer to "who cares?"

sb8's picture

To me it seemed like the only argument of the no campaign was that it was expensive and we're not in a great financial situation, not that they actually opposed the AV system (I can't see any reason why FPTP would be better), which makes it so ridiculous that they lied about the one reason not to change. It's pretty sad that these people are more concerned with making sure their jobs are easy instead of doing what's right for all of the citizens they supposedly represent.

mittfh's picture

Courtesy of Channel 4's FactCheck, currently 50 countries / 2.3bn people use FPTP. 43 of those countries are former British colonies and half those people are in India. No other country in Europe uses FPTP. 71 countries use List PR, including 7 of the top 10 democracies. Oh, and 2.5bn people aren't in democracies at all - most of those in China.

AV was probably chosen for the referendum precisely because it is a "miserable little compromise", however, the voter-facing side (ranking candidates in preferential order) is the basis for more representative forms of voting, so it is quite rightly a step in the right direction.

I have to wonder why the No campaign claims machines are needed - after all, the effort involved should be less than performing a full recount if the votes are too close to call in FPTP, and as far as I know, no-one's considered using vote counting machines for FPTP elections (after all, they haven't exactly been a huge unmitigated success in the USA!)

Sophia's picture

When you think about it, is it so surprising that the 'No' campaign lied? Led by the conservatives, who were not exactly very truthful in their manifesto, it could have been read two ways and I certainly didn't see the damning cuts to the NHS. Anyway, people or should i say politicians always tend to mislead the public on figures in our 'democracy', so should we really be so surprised?
On the coming AV vote, there is no wonder that the YES campaign may be defeated as there has hardly been any publication about the event in most areas of the country. There should have been more information on the news, more publications sent to homes etc. I'm not talking about for or against material. I'm talking about truthful facts, a list of pro's AND con's so that the public could adequately make up its mind over AV. How can a public, of whom at least 40% don't vote in general elections, whom are ill informed don't necessarily understand the system make a proper decision? The play that the No campaign have used about money is petty when really this vote is about true democracy, surely Conservatives and Labour should look at it from the democracy side of things, not how many seats they may potentially lose? Surely it's about how much more choice the public should gain, and therefore how much more democratic our country could become.

Zoe's picture

Well I feel stupid now
I believed in the £250 million myth and now I look like a right dumbo in front of my friends
Surely they should be punished for this?

northofwatford's picture

The London Mayoral Election uses the Supplementary Vote system, not AV. It counts about 2.25 million votes, the average parlimentary consituency counts about 60,000. That's why it needs machines, parlimentaries using AV DO NOT, its a lie.

Denis Cooper's picture

Machines will not be used for the Scottish elections this time:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-12849105

and the use of machines for next year's London elections has been criticised by the Electoral Commission because the GLA's own study showed that it would actually be more expensive that a manual count:

http://www.guardian.co.uk/technology/2009/oct/02/voting-ecounting?INTCMP...

as well as being no faster, less reliable and potentially a lot less secure:

http://www.guardian.co.uk/technology/2009/sep/30/electronic-vote-counting

The difficulties of carrying out a manual AV count in each of the 600 parliamentary constituencies have been vastly exaggerated.

The Irish manage manual counts for the much more complex STV used for general elections, let alone the simpler AV used for parliamentary by-elections such as this one:

http://electionsireland.org/counts.cfm?election=2007B&cons=85&ref

The use of voting and vote counting machines should be strenuously opposed, as the accuracy of the count can no longer be effectively checked by laymen and when it's in the hands of just a few technicians it invites corruption and ballot rigging.

Incidentally the cost of the actual count for a general election is only about £6 million, about 5% of the total cost of the election.

DBirkin's picture

Bernard, as you would see if u were at an AV count, the only votes recounted and distributed are from the eliminated...why would they waste time recounting ballots that can't change?

tom's picture

does anyone find it ironic that probably the best way of voting on which electoral reform which should be adopted should have been an AV on the different types of voting system?

sb8's picture

The fact that it counts some peoples' second preference doesn't make it unfair to others, it makes it fair to everyone, since everyone can then vote for whoever they think truly represents them, instead of having to vote against what represents them the least. It's not like those whose first preference remains are getting their votes discounted, it's just changing the vote of those whose vote wouldn't have counted because they voted for a less popular party.

swatantra's picture

Huhne should not let it drop. Challenge them in Court and if found to have been deceitful, have a re-run of the Referendum next year.
Blunkett is a disgrace.

Actionfitz's picture

I second that.
Blunkett and his ilk - career politicians more concerned about their own perceived rather than their duty to the electorate - ALL of the electorate, not just the 30% or so of each constituency that keeps returning them to parliament under FTTP.

Actionfitz's picture

hmm. my spell check turned 'Priveledge' into 'perceived' :/

Marc's picture

If either machines or humans have to count between 3 and 10 times as many votes, how can AV not cost more?

The arithmetic is completely indisputable. It MUST COST MORE TO COUNT MORE VOTES WHETHER PEOPLE DO IT OR MACHINES ARE PURCHASED.

Which raises the question: If someone disputes this, are they being truthful and factual?

John's picture

Willpo - you shouldn't believe everything the Conservative Research Dept puts out: Australian elections cost so much more per head because their parliamentary term is 3 years, not 5 (so more elections!), they elect two houses of parliament, not one, and the country is bigger than the whole of western Europe.

A few people on this blog also ought to find out the difference between voting and counting machines, because they seem to think they are the same.

John's picture

Marc - the No campaign said voting machines would cost £130m. There is no need for voting machines, so that is untrue. If they'd said that AV would cost a bit more in overtime for counters you might have a point. But they didn't and you haven't.

Marat Sade's picture

As if the 'NO to AV' campaign funded by Conservative Party money and clearly backed and inspired by Cameron were ever likely to tell the truth about AV. Their whole campaign is a series of lies and disinformation.

Barny's picture

I'll third support for a legal challenge should the Noes have it as looks likely. Perhaps we can then campaign to include PR as an option which it should have been all along.

MD1500's picture

If the result is No, then I hope everyone demands that NO2AV pay out the "saved" £250 million for Maternity Wards, Soldier's uniforms etc.

northofwatford's picture

Marc, have you ever been at a count? Do you understand how AV works. If candidate A has 35% and B 25% you only have to recont a possible 40% until A or B (or maybe C) passes 51% and you still have your full team of counters only counting the 40%; it's much faster. In most cases you'll only get a 20% to 30% increase in count time. Count time is not total cost of count, call it 50%. Total GE count cost £6m today, it will be less than £7m under AV. Peanuts. The cost argument is fantasy.

Barny's picture

hmm. my spell check turned 'w@nkers' into 'Noes' :/

Phil Ruse's picture

So, what do you do when you don't know the actual figures - because let's face it, none of us do, though some of us think there will be an increased cost.

You make a guess, or an estimate, you make up some numbers and (here's the contentious bit) hope that they're accurate.

Hasson's picture

The NO campaign has been so dishonest, it has dragged our democracy to even lower depths, showing more than ever why we need change. http://bit.ly/jockhi

Shinsei67's picture

All figures in election campaigns are "made up" as no one knows exactly how much policy commitments will end up costing.

It is clear that there is a strong possibility voting machines (as they are already used in Scottish and London mayoral elections) will be adopted and this will entail a cost.

Huhne doesn't have a leg to stand on.

He'd have been far smarter to have said that whatever minor cost was required to fund voting machines was a small price to pay for democracy.

mcquade's picture

Is that the same David Blunkett who is a well-paid advisor to News International whose media outlets were putting out the made-up figures?

gerob's picture

I hope Nick Clegg will be treated a little more sympathetically now we can all see what lying toads he is having to deal with. Bet he wishes he had coalesced with Labour in retrospect.

Hugh's picture

In all recently changed voting systems they have used voting machines. It is only fair to state the cost of them as there would be an impact in using them.

Just because one person doesn't use a certain figure doesn't mean it's fictional. People use different figures all the time, but one thing is clear....

The Yes2AV camp jump on every little comment as they know that as a whole, they will lose the referendum because the MAJORITY of the country don't want it. The question then is, will they ever shut up about it?

Collins's picture

The No campaign was never going to play fair as the Tories only care about themselves, if they cared anything about our electorate system then they'd have pushed for PR! The most fair voting system we could have! If ANY politician worth their spit cared they would have pushed for it and have countered the Tories on everything they've done so fair...and that does include all of the Lib Dems...if they had a back bone!

Eddy C's picture

In the arguments on misleading Paddy Ashdown has not been challenged on his statements about other countries using AV.
Australia- who brought it in to avoid always having a Labour Prime Minister which worked with Howard. As opposed to the states where 70% of the parliament are labour-union.

Figi who have tried it, do not like it and are trying to get rid of it.

Papua who in the main do not know about it.
That is the lot.

Lies, damned lies and politicians.

Mark Wilson's picture

I am amazed that people would believe anything an MP says.
We should all know by now that they are not good with figures!
They only tell us what they want us to hear and what will feather their own nest.
Has anyone got the bottle to make it compulsory to vote? This would address the poor turnouts and we would then have a party who would be in government because they received the most votes - even if they were not our choice.

Gibbo's picture

Collins, you may want to think carefully about PR, as you will get the same career politicians at the top of the party lists to become MP's. We will never be able to vote them out whatever they do!!

swatantra's picture

Its a good point. The only way to get round that is to have Open Primaries so that Party supporters, not necessarily Party members, choose who to have as their representative. Otherwise its jobs for the boys and jobs for life again.

TheOldBrewer's picture

Double page ad in today's Metro included the cost disinformation. I have to agree with Collins (05 May, at 11:19)

TheOldBrewer's picture

Hugh (05 May, at 11:18) points out that machines have been used to counts where new voting systems have been introduced. There use has to be questioned, however, as they have not been overly reliable. They may not be appropriate for election of MPs

Tom's picture

What a disgrace.

They ran all of those misleading adverts "He needs body armour not AV" and such. All fabricated.

I agree with the idea that if the result is "no" then the No campaign be made to answer to their campaign strategies in court and re-run the referendum with all adverts pre-approved and using actual facts.

gahks's picture

Whatever you think about AV, this is a staggering and frankly appalling admission from David Blunkett.

Peter English's picture

I agree with swatantra nandanwar (first respondent).

mdwh's picture

Barny: But you can't have a referendum with more than two choices, otherwise we then have to decide what voting system to use for the referendum... would you really want a FPTP vote between FPTP, AV and a PR system, and then see the anti-FPTP vote split between the latter two options?

Gibbo: You can vote for candidates under open list PR systems, as well as top up systems like Additional Member System (used in Scotland, Wales and London).

Nick: But why do Scotland/London use machines? They use AMS, but that's not a preferential system. If they've started to use machines, that's gone nothing to do with AV. (Indeed, Australia has AV but no machines; and the USA has FPTP with primaries, each round is counted by machines.)

Collins: There was no way the Tories (or Labour, come to that) would offer PR. The Lib Dems having "a back bone" would simply mean the only alternative is no coalition, and no AV referendum. By all means, one might argue whether they should have entered a coalition or not, but there's no way they could have got a PR referendum simply by better negotiations.

The only way we'd have got (or will ever get) PR is if they had or get more seats. (Though now with people seemingly wanting to punish the Lib Dems the most, you can kiss goodbye to that - and if No wins today, we'll be set back to two party politics, between the Tories, and Labour who have despicable MPs like Blunkett.)

centreedge's picture

"Collins, you may want to think carefully about PR, as you will get the same career politicians at the top of the party lists to become MP's. We will never be able to vote them out whatever they do!!" Beg to differ using the Single Transferable Vote system voters do their own ranking of the candidates and if they choose not rank the top nomination of a particular party but give a high rank to other candidates for that party there's nothing the party machine can do about it.

Hamish's picture

The worst part is how long he waited to say this. Clearly letting it slide as a referendum tactic but trying to come off as honest despite that. Disgraceful.

iainburnshill's picture

Surely the answer is for a respected figure - government statistician or professor from Oxbridge - to appear and say the PM was factually wrong in his exchange with Humphrys. In the longer term, it should concern us deeply that a prime minister either does not understand school-level arithmetic, or that he should stoop so low as to mislead the public.

Steve Sole's picture

Why do we need machines to vote on when we all have internet access and an individual National Insurance number that we could login to our 'Facebook' (lol) Voting page and vote there! Saving massive costs of polling stations, machines etc etc...

RJD's picture

Oh well I voted yes because I thought it would be an improvement. But the switch to AV would have been welcome in a 3 party system and let's face it - the Lib Dems are dead. They were dead before this poll. This referendum is simply the death knell of a party that committed suicide. Clegg gambled that he could lie down with dogs and not get up with any fleas. The first big flea he picked up was the complete and utter decimation of his reputation to the extent that the Lib Dems have a leader whose image is utterly toxic to the party. The second big flea they've picked up is the loss of an opportunity to get more seats in parliament under a fairer voting system.

So we're back to the 2 party ding dong and under FPTP which probably suits a 2 party ding dong. I'd have been upset with the result if there really was a credible 3rd party. I like the greens but, let's face it, they are 50 yrs away from any real traction.

The Lib Dems have been executed. I don't like the way it was done (the filthy and dishonest Tory campaign) but they got what they deserved.

Bernard Disken's picture

When John Humfryes interviewed David Cameron, the PM misleadingly said some people's votes are counted twice under AV and accused Humfryes of being wrong, In fact in the second round everyone's vote is counted again. I thought Cameron had done a good deal to detoxify the Tories but he showed himself up badly here.

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