The Staggers

The New Statesman’s rolling politics blog

Scotland won’t win the day for Yes to AV

Polls show that Scottish voters are also opposed to AV.

By George Eaton Published 15 April 2011 13:18

What if Scotland votes Yes but England votes No? That's the question posed today by the former Conservative Scottish secretary Lord Forsyth. He warns of a constitutional crisis if the Alternative Vote is secured by a majority of votes "north of the border".

The thinking goes like this: because the referendum is held on the same day as the Scottish Parliamentary elections and because the Scots already use a different voting system from Westminster (the proportional Additional Member System), they'll be more likely to vote for change. In Forsyth's view, the decision to hold the referendum on 5 May means it has been "rigged".

Echoing the Tory peer, a leader in the Daily Mail warns of the "deeply galling prospect of Scottish voters inflicting the incomprehensible, anti-democratic AV system on the rest of the UK". But the facts suggest otherwise. The latest YouGov poll, for instance, shows that support for AV is only marginally higher in Scotland than in the rest of the UK. In Scotland, 37 per cent would vote Yes to AV and 45 per cent would vote No.

The picture isn't much different in London, where 33 per cent would vote Yes and 45 per cent would vote No. Another YouGov poll, conducted a week earlier, actually showed that Scotland would split 42:36 in favour of first-past-the-post.

In any case, talk of a constitutional crisis is overwrought. If Scotland wins the day for the Yes camp (which it won't), we'll see something comparable to the upset after the 2005 election when the Tories won more votes in England than Labour. But there will be no significant political consequences. Britain, which is now neither a unitary nor a federal state, will muddle along as usual.

PS: As I've repeatedly pointed out, it is Labour votes that will determine the result of the referendum. The latest YouGov poll shows that while Lib Dem voters are overwhelmingly in favour of reform (69:21) and Conservative voters are overwhelmingly opposed (68:19), Labour voters are split 44:38 in favour of first-past-the-post.

Special Offer: Get 12 issues of New Statesman magazine for just £12

Tags: AV Electoral Reform

More from George Eaton

9 comments

Fri, 2011-04-15 14:35 — Arturo Bandini (not verified)

So, according to the Daily Mail, votes in Scotland are worth less than those of true-born Englishmen? Some democracy.

We've had plenty poured down our throats by right-wing English governments that appal our naturally social-democratic values, so maybe this will be just one in the eye for you lot for a change.

Fri, 2011-04-15 14:43 — Stuart Eels (not verified)

Get your facts right Arturo Bandini, We've had Scottish Prime Ministers since 1997, including the Great Leader who was unelected and left us a third world country.

Ehtch Tee, you should start writing Scottish songs but don't give up the day job.

Fri, 2011-04-15 16:17 — richy (not verified)

Stuart Eels "A third world country" - wouldn't be prone to a spot of hyperbole would we? A hardly call a large deficit in the context of a global recession a reversion from a G7 nation to third world status.

If anything, your illustrious Tory Prime Ministers created a welfare underclass in parts of England, Scotland and Wales for which we are still paying the price for to this day.

Fri, 2011-04-15 18:20 — James (not verified)

What a bizarre accusation to make. A constitutional crisis? Why should English votes have more weight than Scottish ones?

Equally idiotic is Stuart Eels tripe in the comments. Read a few books, things along the lines of politics and economics 101. You'll see that all prime ministers are unelected (many new PMs have come in the middle of parliamentary terms throughout history) and you'll probably shoot yourself when you find how thoroughly imbecilic your 'third world' comment is.

Tue, 2011-04-19 13:16 — Stuart Eels (not verified)

richy

I don't know which party you support and so would not make an assumption just to feed any views I may have on you. They are not my illustrious Tory Prime Ministers, wait a few months and see just how third world we are.

James,

No more tripe than the comments I've read from you on various topics, the Great Leader entered a poll of MPs for the leadership where there was only one candidate, him, rather third world I reckon.

Fri, 2011-04-22 16:48 — RedGreenInBlue (not verified)

À propos de nothing, seeing the Daily Mail calls a system as simple and intuitive as AV "incomprehensible" just confirms my long-standing opinion that they are a load of dunces.

As an Englishman, I'm hoping for a Yes to AV (won on the back of Scottish majority support), and another SNP minority administration at Holyrood with a more Green MSPs. The vitriol unleashed against Scotland by the reactionary elements in English politics, will finally convince the Scots that they're better off without us (and they are), and they will finally go for independence.

That (plus a significant number of English people moving to Scotland before the secession because it appears to give a damn about public services and democracy) will in turn cause such a shock in English politics that the government of the rump UK will disestablish the monarchy, scrap the House of Lords, adopt STV for Westminster elections, and agree to power of recall at any time for any reason MPs, in a desperate attempt to re-establish some credibility.

In my dreams, anyway... :-)

Tue, 2011-04-19 13:57 — Stuart Eels (not verified)

James

Sorry I am in a bit of a mood!

Fri, 2011-04-15 19:48 — Jock (not verified)

So Thatcher's former gauleiter in Scotland appears to think Scottish votes are worth less than English ones.

Well fancy that! Why not just let the people of Tunbridge Wells decide on AV.

And by the way the Scottish government protested immediately about the date set for the referendum since it clashed with the Scottish Parliamentary vote. Needless to say Forsyth's party ignored them.