Why AV might not happen even if the vote is Yes

The Alternative Vote will only be used if the new boundaries are implemented.

Even if the Yes camp wins the electoral reform referendum, there's no guarantee that the Alternative Vote will be used at the next election. As the Electoral Commission's guide to the referendum points out, it depends on the successful completion of the boundary review.

The booklet notes:

The "alternative vote" system will be used after a review of the boundaries of the area that each MP represents (known as their constituency) is completed. This is due to happen between 2011 and 2013. The review will happen regardless of the outcome of this referendum.

At the end of the review, the UK parliament will vote on implementing the new boundaries. If the new boundaries are implemented, the "alternative vote" system will be used for all future elections to the House of Commons.

In other words, if, for whatever reason, the boundary review is not approved by parliament in time for the next election, the Alternative Vote will not be used.

The Electoral Commission press office confirmed that if there's an election between now and 2013, it will be fought under first-past-the-post.

Among other things, this provides the Lib Dems with a clear incentive to remain in the coalition until 2015.

George Eaton is political editor of the New Statesman.

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Theresa May takes early lead in the Conservative leadership race

The first poll of the Tory contest puts the Home Secretary well out in front

Theresa May, the Home Secretary is well ahead among Conservative members according to a new YouGov poll for the Times

She is both the preferred first choice of a plurality of members from an open field (she secures 37 per cent of the vote, with her nearest rival, Boris Johnson, 10 points behind) and roundly trounces Johnson with 55 per cent to 38 per cent. In all other head-to-heads, Johnson wins comfortably.

Although YouGov have a patchy recent record in national contests - they predicted the London mayoral victory but failed to foresee the Conservative majority or the Brexit vote - they are four for four as far as internal party contests are concerned, having accurately predicted both the result and the final vote share of the 2015 and 2010 Labour leadership contests and the 2005 and 2001 Conservative contests. 

Stephen Bush is special correspondent at the New Statesman. He usually writes about politics.