Libya polls show that British public is divided

YouGov poll shows 45 per cent of people supporting action in Libya, while ComRes finds 43 per cent o

The first polls gauging British public support for military action have come out – and they show contradictory results.

A YouGov poll for the Sun shows 45 per cent of people supporting action by Britain, the US and France, and 36 per cent stating that it is wrong.

However, a ComRes/ITN poll shows almost exactly the opposite, with 35 per cent in favour of action and 43 per cent opposed to it.

Clearly, this shows that we mustn't be too hasty about declaring that the public is opposed to or in favour of the war, as many news outlets have been doing this morning.

Discussing the ComRes poll, John Rentoul declares that "it is not even as well supported by the British public as the Iraq invasion", citing a Guardian/ICM poll which showed 54 per cent support for Britain's role in the invasion of Iraq in the days after it started.

While it is true that all pollsters showed a boost in support for the 2003 Iraq war after it actually began, the comparison is slightly disingenuous, given the unique circumstances. Drilling down into the figures from Ipsos MORI (taken before the war started) shows that this support was highly conditional – while 74 per cent would support war with proof of WMDs and a UN resolution, just 26 per cent would support it without either of these two things.

It's also relevant that support for the Iraq war (and for Afghanistan) dropped substantially as they dragged on. Over at the Washington Post, Chris Cillizza suggests that the first Gulf war might be a better comparison, as public support started and stayed high:

The secret to that political success? The war was short – military actions lasted less than a month – and the US was widely perceived to be at the head of a broad international coalition that soundly defeated Iraqi dictator Saddam Hussein . . .

Given that history, it's no surprise that President Obama is focusing almost entirely on the planned brevity of the US's military involvement and the near-unanimity of the international community in support of the actions taken against Libya.

This would certainly be a better model for this action – though it's worth noting that neither of today's polls shows public support even approaching the levels seen in 1991, when 80 per cent of the British public thought military action was right.

All today's polls tell us is that the public is still unsure: there is no widespread opposition to it, but nor is there a swell of support.

Samira Shackle is a freelance journalist, who tweets @samirashackle. She was formerly a staff writer for the New Statesman.

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Brexit has transformed Nicola Sturgeon into a defender of the status quo

First Minister Nicola Sturgeon is saying the right things, but she may not be able to deliver.

Since 2014, Scotland has been split between "neverenders" who constantly agitate for another vote on independence, and those who complain of referendum fatigue.

This latter emotion appeared to be in the ascendancy during the EU referendum last week, when Scottish voters failed to turn out in large enough numbers to push the Remain vote over the 50% threshold. 

And First Minister Nicola Sturgeon has framed her arguments accordingly. 

Speaking on the Andrew Marr Show, the Scottish National Party leader portrayed herself as battling for the status quo and declared "independence is not my starting point". 

Describing the process of leaving the European Union as "deeply damaging", she said: "The status quo we voted for doesn't exist."

Sturgeon said there was "no vacuum of leadership in Scotland" and added: "My priority is to seek to protect Scotland's interests in uncharted territory."

As well as redefining Scottish independence, Sturgeon is attempting to redefine the rules of the debate. Quizzed on whether she could actually take a unilateral approach to negotiations, she claimed: "The reality is there are no rules, there is no precedent. What will happen from here on in is a matter of negotiation."

Batting away reports that Brussels would not want to sit down with her, she again outlined plans to meet with EU institutions over the coming weeks. 

There is no doubt the First Minister has captured the zeitgeist in Scotland, the most Europhile part of the UK. A full 62 per cent of voters opted to remain in the EU, compared to the UK average of 48.1 per cent. 

But even as she vows to protect the status quo, Sturgeon may find the practical details of "protecting Scotland's interests" are a stumbling block. 

She was unable to say much more about the currency question apart from suggesting it was a "moral issue", and that the borders question would affect Northern Ireland as well. 

During the Scottish referendum, Sturgeon and her colleagues tried to play down the prospect of land borders and an adoption of the euro. Whether Scottish voters' attachment to the EU could include such impositions remains to be seen.