Ken takes the lead over Boris

New poll puts Livingstone ahead of Johnson in London mayoral race by 45 per cent to 43.

Don't bet against Red Ken returning to City Hall in 2012. The latest YouGov poll on the London mayoral race puts the Labour candidate ahead of Boris on first preferences by 45 per cent to 43. By contrast, an earlier poll published in October showed Boris ahead by 46 per cent to 44.

The significant support for Livingstone suggests that his age (he will turn 67 in June 2012) and his political baggage aren't necessarily barriers to his re-election. There are still other candidates to come, not least from the Greens and the Lib Dems, who could cut into Ken's vote, but this poll will reassure Labour that it made the right choice.

As on previous occasions, the result is almost certain to be determined by second-preference votes. Asked who they would rather have as mayor – a question that aims to reflect second preferences – voters still favour Boris by 45 per cent to 42, although his lead has narrowed from 5 points in October.

In the coming months we can expect Boris to do even more to try to differentiate himself from Cameron and Osborne. As I noted last week, growing opposition to the speed and scale of the coalition's cuts means Labour's poll lead has widened from 3-5 points to 7-9 points. Boris's challenge is to achieve what Ken could not and prove that national unpopularity is no barrier to local success.

George Eaton is political editor of the New Statesman.

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“Trembling, shaking / Oh, my heart is aching”: the EU out campaign song will give you chills

But not in a good way.

You know the story. Some old guys with vague dreams of empire want Britain to leave the European Union. They’ve been kicking up such a big fuss over the past few years that the government is letting the public decide.

And what is it that sways a largely politically indifferent electorate? Strikes hope in their hearts for a mildly less bureaucratic yet dangerously human rights-free future? An anthem, of course!

Originally by Carly You’re so Vain Simon, this is the song the Leave.EU campaign (Nigel Farage’s chosen group) has chosen. It is performed by the singer Antonia Suñer, for whom freedom from the technofederalists couldn’t come any suñer.

Here are the lyrics, of which your mole has done a close reading. But essentially it’s just nature imagery with fascist undertones and some heartburn.

"Let the river run

"Let all the dreamers

"Wake the nation.

"Come, the new Jerusalem."

Don’t use a river metaphor in anything political, unless you actively want to evoke Enoch Powell. Also, Jerusalem? That’s a bit... strong, isn’t it? Heavy connotations of being a little bit too Englandy.

"Silver cities rise,

"The morning lights,

"The streets that meet them,

"And sirens call them on

"With a song."

Sirens and streets. Doesn’t sound like a wholly un-authoritarian view of the UK’s EU-free future to me.

"It’s asking for the taking,

"Trembling, shaking,

"Oh, my heart is aching."

A reference to the elderly nature of many of the UK’s eurosceptics, perhaps?

"We’re coming to the edge,

"Running on the water,

"Coming through the fog,

"Your sons and daughters."

I feel like this is something to do with the hosepipe ban.

"We the great and small,

"Stand on a star,

"And blaze a trail of desire,

"Through the dark’ning dawn."

Everyone will have to speak this kind of English in the new Jerusalem, m'lady, oft with shorten’d words which will leave you feeling cringéd.

"It’s asking for the taking.

"Come run with me now,

"The sky is the colour of blue,

"You’ve never even seen,

"In the eyes of your lover."

I think this means: no one has ever loved anyone with the same colour eyes as the EU flag.

I'm a mole, innit.