Will Cameron soon be the leader under pressure?

As Labour opens up an 8-point lead over the Tories, the narrative could soon change.

It may just be one poll, but this morning's ComRes/Independent survey putting Labour 8 points ahead of the Conservatives is a big boost for Ed Miliband. The poll puts Labour up 2 points to 42 per cent, with the Tories down 2 points to 34 per cent and the Lib Dems unchanged on 12 per cent.

The 8-point lead is the largest Labour has recorded since 2007 and the Tories haven't been as low as 34 per cent since May.

While support for the Lib Dems has plummeted since the general election (to as little as 7 per cent), support for the Tories has remained surprisingly robust, until now. With Labour also likely to triumph in the Oldham East and Saddleworth by-election on Thursday, Miliband will win some of the breathing space he needs.

Should the Conservatives either outperform or underperform expectations, Cameron will come under pressure. If the Tories do worse than expected in the by-election, he will be attacked for giving the Lib Dems a virtual free ride. If they do better than expected, he will be attacked for missing out on a seat the Tories could have won (they were just 2,413 votes behind Labour at the general election).

Yesterday I suggested that a little bit of populism on bankers' bonuses would do Ed Miliband no harm. Today we learn that the Conservatives fear as much. The Telegraph's Benedict Brogan writes:

Tory high command wories that if it goes soft on the banks the numbers will get worse. Those who have pressed the coalition and specifically the Chancellor to speak out against banker-bashing are told each time that the coalition has to keep public attitudes in mind. Mr Osborne believes voters loathe the banks and blame them for the financial crisis.

Despite his status as one of the least electorally successful Tory prime ministers in history, Cameron has come under little pressure since the election. Instead, it is Nick Clegg and Ed Miliband who have attracted the greatest media criticism. But if, as seems likely, the Conservatives enter a period of sustained unpopularity, the narrative could soon change.

George Eaton is political editor of the New Statesman.

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Tory Brexiter Daniel Hannan: Leave campaign never promised "radical decline" in immigration

The voters might not agree...

BBC Newsnight on Twitter

It was the Leave campaign's pledge to reduce EU immigration that won it the referendum. But Daniel Hannan struck a rather different tone on last night's Newsnight. "It means free movement of labour," the Conservative MEP said of the post-Brexit model he envisaged. An exasperated Evan Davis replied: “I’m sorry we’ve just been through three months of agony on the issue of immigration. The public have been led to believe that what they have voted for is an end to free movement." 

Hannan protested that EU migrants would lose "legal entitlements to live in other countries, to vote in other countries and to claim welfare and to have the same university tuition". But Davis wasn't backing down. "Why didn't you say this in the campaign? Why didn't you say in the campaign that you were wanting a scheme where we have free movement of labour? Come on, that's completely at odds with what the public think they have just voted for." 

Hannan concluded: "We never said there was going to be some radical decline ... we want a measure of control". Your Mole suspects many voters assumed otherwise. If immigration is barely changed, Hannan and others will soon be burned by the very fires they stoked. 

I'm a mole, innit.