The Staggers

The New Statesman’s rolling politics blog

Labour support at three-year high

Latest poll gives Labour a 10-point lead over the Tories for the first time since 2007.

By Samira Shackle Published 27 January 2011 9:57

Support for Labour has surged to a three-year high, according to the latest Reuters/Ipsos-MORI poll.

The headline figures are 43 points for Labour (up 4 from the last Ipsos poll), 33 for Conservatives (down 5) and 13 for the Liberal Democrats (up 2).

This is the highest lead shown for Labour since the election that never was in 2007, and is significantly larger than the 4- or 5-point leads consistently shown by other pollsters.

While the temptation here is to attribute this big lead to the disastrous GDP figures that came out this week, it is worth noting that the research for this poll was conducted before the figures were released.

This could indicate that public faith in the government's programme of cuts was wavering even before the figures were announced. The poll appears to back this up: it also shows the most pessimistic outlook on the economy since March 2009, with 53 per cent of respondents saying they believed the economy would get worse in the next 12 months, and just 24 per cent saying they thought it would get better.

David Cameron's personal approval rating, though still higher than that of his party, is the lowest since he took office.

Although the poll seems to be doom and gloom for the Tories, there is some good news for their coalition partner – the small increase in Lib Dem support has been consistently reflected across the polls in recent weeks.

It is, of course, difficult to say how far this poll is an outlier. The true test will come in May with the local elections, when we will see whether this fall in Conservative support is reflected at the ballot box.

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Tags: Polls

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25 comments

Thu, 2011-01-27 10:31 — ang (not verified)

I don't understand why any ordinary working/middle-class person would vote Tory and especially now that they are proving to be the same old nasty Tories, who care little for people earning less than £150,000 and care very much for the very rich, big business and the royals.
I hope they will be given a 'good kicking' in May and that Clegg doesn't get his way on AV.
I think April's GDP figures will alienate many people, who once beleived the 'we're all in this together' lie.

Thu, 2011-01-27 10:33 — Robin37

Unbelievable the people of the UK must be dumber than I thought possible.

Illegal wars and more debt than the country has ever had in its history and the UK people like that - sheesh.

Thu, 2011-01-27 10:36 — Robin37

Gordon Brown + Ed Balls sold the UK Gold Bullion at US$200 per ounce because they said it was the right thing to do.

With Gold now at US$1340 per ounce and rising it shows that Labour has no idea no idea at all about investments and long term wealth creation just spend spend spend SPEND SPIN SPIN SPIN KILL KILL KILL

Mandelson Blair Beckett Blunkett etc etc etc Fill your boots with cash stuff the people

Thu, 2011-01-27 10:49 — Peter Henshall (not verified)

@Robin37 - Blah Blah Blah meaningless Blah.

Thu, 2011-01-27 10:59 — Robin37

obviously a product of Education Education Education - wow what a success that was innit pal

Thu, 2011-01-27 11:04 — ang (not verified)

@Robin37.
You sound like a yank, but I may be wrong.
No we are not dumb, otherwise we would have given the Tories a majority.
No we don't like debt, just like almost every other country, especially America.
Most Tories voted for the 'illegal' war, the now Chancellor urging many of his collegues to do so.
Labour has always put people first and has improved our public services, ie schools and hospitals, greatly. The Tories are now in the process of smashing it all to pieces and sending are growing economy back into recession. Sheesh!

Thu, 2011-01-27 11:06 — ang (not verified)

Typo/spelling. Our

Thu, 2011-01-27 11:12 — Kathy (not verified)

Labour Party should be a lot higher than this iun the polld. The reason we a not is down to the leadership of Ed Miliband.

The way I see it is this; Ed Milliband will follow in the footsteps of his mentors Kinnock & GBrown. Lord Kinnock consistently polled higher ratings but never won a general election. Gordon Brown equally has never won a general election.

In the interim, Labour will win seats in local elections & any bye elections that comes up; but will NEVER will a general election under Ed Miliband's leadership.

As for Robin' rants; pleae chag th record; the Country hs moved on and on the way to big destroyd by the coalition of ConDems.

Which is why I say the Labour Party need to change it leader as the British ppl will never vote Labour into Govt with Ed as our leader.

Thu, 2011-01-27 11:16 — Mike S (not verified)

Who should it be then Kathy?

Thu, 2011-01-27 11:20 — Clem the Gem

Kathy - even at the height of New Labours popularity, Tony Blair was not as popular as his party. As Mark Steel said, he was like the unwelcome guest at a party, who everyone else thought someone else had invited.
Ed has so far made a good start at building a new coalition in different circumstances to New Labour - and injected a tiny bit of radicalism back into the party.
This Coalition could very well run until 2015, so it is a wee bit early to write Ed off...
http://clemthegem.wordpress.com

Thu, 2011-01-27 11:25 — Stephen Camfield (not verified)

Vote Labour and get millions more immigrants. We are already on the way to becoming a minority race in our own country by 2015. Will the left ever learn? They will be the first in the firing line when and if the time comes, but let us hope we vote for a party that will save this country from the appalling state that it has become.
We have been in the grip of the left since 1968 where they have dominated Universities, schools, media and news outlets such as the BBC etc. This is leading to the destruction of our way of life and heritage, but because people have been brainwashed they have not realised what is happening. Just go to Brent and Newham areas in London, or Leicester, Birmingham, Luton, etc etc to see for yourselves.

Thu, 2011-01-27 12:35 — Graeme B (not verified)

Yet again an idiot lauds the gold sales as a 'failure'!

When they happened gold was at an all time low, lots of other western nations also offloaded their gold, and Brown & the BoE put them into long term investments that would bring returns of between 40 and 60%...

And if the government should have sold it when it was worth US$1340 per ounce, why didn't Geoffrey Howe sell it back in 1980 when it was worth US$850 per ounce?

BTW that's $2,655 per ounce in Real Terms (2009 prices)... nearly double what it's worth today...

Isn't economics wonderful - in 20/20 hindsight? ;-)

Thu, 2011-01-27 11:49 — Robert Taggart

Matters not... they still have four years to lose it !

Thu, 2011-01-27 11:52 — Dave C (not verified)

If you put the above poll results into the BBC Election seat calculator at: http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/election_2010/8609989.stm

you get:

Labour: 394 seats

Tories: 198

Lib Dems: 31

Others: 27

Labour majority of 138 seats.

That assumes current seats and voting system, of course.

Sun, 2011-01-30 15:28 — Eddy S (not verified)

the economy will surely improve and there is over 4 years for the next election.

we shouldn't get carried away and need a long term strategy. the worst thing we can do is get carried away with the latest statistics.

Sun, 2011-01-30 15:59 — Dave C (not verified)

Eddy S,

It's wise to be cautious. However consider the past, between the 1997 and 2002 General Elections, Labour lost 2.5% of its support and 6 seats.

Contrast that with today, the Coalition parties polled 59% in the 2010 General Election and now down to 46%.

Or more realistically, as they are separate parties, the Tories are down from 36% to 33% and the LapDogs are down from 23% to 13%.

That's a hell of a loss in just a few months.

Thu, 2011-01-27 12:14 — scandalousbill (not verified)

The recent Labour gain and perhaps more significantly, Tory losses in the opinion polls are likely to become more dramatic as the VAT rise and spending cuts begin to take hold. The Libdems are becoming less of a Tory shield. IMHO, AV reform, if it happens by May, will not alter their increasing irrelevance and the upcoming local and regional elections could put them under considerable pressure which their coalition loyalty will have caused. The party will fragment much further than at present, but they would dare not bring down the coalition.

Ed Miliband, in focusing upon both the social impacts and Cameron's arrogance will stand a good chance of future dividends. It is not necessary to play the class bias card if the negative trend in GDP leads to additional decline. The “out of touch” nature of the Conservative led coalition in the mismanagement of the economy will become self evident should the GDP decline persist and inflation takes a greater hold. The monetary tools of MPC, i.e. an increase in interest rates, will fan the flames of the real economy under fire. I do not believe that the March budget will offer a substantial change of course. The laddies are not for turning.

The best case scenario likely is a near flat lined growth of a jobless recovery, the worst, risks a prolonged double dip recession. If this outcome occurs, the massive changes to be introduced in the organizational structures of local government, DWP, education and the NHS, to name a few, and most particularly, their front-loaded costs, will come under real pressure to complete. The disarray will provide big time the pain that Mr. King says we must endure but I feel generate a resentment that will last and carry forward. Labour may be sowing the seeds for an Obama style call for change.

Sun, 2011-01-30 16:14 — swatantra nandanwar

This is 'armchair politics'. We haven't actually done anything yet, not even inflicted the proverbial left hook on the Tories.In fact its the students and unions and the afflicted public that have put the boot into the solar plexus. A double dip followed by the protests seen on the streets of Cairo and Tunis against oppressive Govts, is what is making the polls turn against the Tory Coalition. When Balls and Burnham and Cooper step up the pressure, Labour should be at least 15 points ahead. Happy days are here again.

Thu, 2011-01-27 13:05 — Mulligrubs (not verified)

This is truly incredible - and runs completely against events and logic - How the devil did the Lib Dems get two additional points? Did the Tories donate them? I demand a recount!

Tue, 2011-02-01 12:19 — Union Steve

It will all end in tears for this victorian government. The people who voted for them are loosing thier jobs. But who cares when they loose the election they will just return to their stately homes and buy bigger dogs to keep us all out!!

Thu, 2011-01-27 13:49 — Dark Heart of Toryland (not verified)

Stephen Camfield: How can Britain possibly be described as 'in the grip of the left', when every government since 1979 has followed a fundamentalist free-market agenda, resulting in a massive increase in levels of inequality?

Sun, 2011-01-30 21:27 — Reginald-Fah-fah

According to a poll in today's Sunday Express, Labour has got 11 point lead over the Tories. Amazing when Ed ' nothing man' Miliband is holding blank sheets of paper. A folk of Sheep ...I say! Ed...meet the Folkers!

It don't really matter because the next General Election is so far off!

My hero David Cameron will get Great Britain well on it's feet by 2015!

Fri, 2011-01-28 14:13 — thinkov (not verified)

keep up those tactical vote chats you blue/yellow tossers

more seats for us

Thu, 2011-01-27 12:21 — ang (not verified)

@Dave C.
This looks really good for Labour, but the Tories are in the process of gerrymandering the system.
But because the Tories are making the 'Mother of all mistakes' with the economy, it probably won't make much difference. The shame is though, by the time the Tories have finished, it will be very hard to pull it back. They need to be ousted sooner, for the sake of the country.