Why Oldham boosts the case for electoral reform

The Alternative Vote would have eliminated the need for tactical voting by Tory supporters.

For many Lib Dems, last night's by-election defeat feels like a victory. They may have finished 3,558 votes behind Labour (having been just 103 behind at the general election) but their share of the vote rose to 31.9 per cent. That is of significant comfort to a party that has been as low as 7 per cent in recent national opinion polls. The fall in the Tories' share of the vote from 26.4 per cent to 12.8 per cent suggests that it was tactical voting by Conservatives that compensated for Lib Dem defections to Labour.

David Cameron's decision to wish the Lib Dems well and the Tories' half-hearted campaign undoubtedly persuaded many Conservatives to back Nick Clegg's party. A pre-election Populus poll showed 22 per cent of 2010 Tory voters defecting to the Lib Dems and, given the collapse in the Conservative vote, the actual figure is likely to have been higher.

What few have noted is how this affair bolsters the case for electoral reform. Had the Alternative Vote been used last night, Tory supporters would have been free to vote for the Conservatives as their first preference, safe in the knowledge that their second-preference votes would be redistributed to the Lib Dems.

The conservative case for AV has been made by few outside of Phillip Blond's ResPublica, but I'd expect this to change as the referendum draws closer. Others, like Boris Johnson, who declined an invitation to join the No to AV campaign, have become agnostic about reform. Rather than any formal pact between the Tories and the Lib Dems, AV may yet offer the coalition its best chance of sticking together.

George Eaton is political editor of the New Statesman.

Ukip's Nigel Farage and Paul Nuttall. Photo: Getty
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Is the general election 2017 the end of Ukip?

Ukip led the way to Brexit, but now the party is on less than 10 per cent in the polls. 

Ukip could be finished. Ukip has only ever had two MPs, but it held an outside influence on politics: without it, we’d probably never have had the EU referendum. But Brexit has turned Ukip into a single-issue party without an issue. Ukip’s sole remaining MP, Douglas Carswell, left the party in March 2017, and told Sky News’ Adam Boulton that there was “no point” to the party anymore. 

Not everyone in Ukip has given up, though: Nigel Farage told Peston on Sunday that Ukip “will survive”, and current leader Paul Nuttall will be contesting a seat this year. But Ukip is standing in fewer constituencies than last time thanks to a shortage of both money and people. Who benefits if Ukip is finished? It’s likely to be the Tories. 

Is Ukip finished? 

What are Ukip's poll ratings?

Ukip’s poll ratings peaked in June 2016 at 16 per cent. Since the leave campaign’s success, that has steadily declined so that Ukip is going into the 2017 general election on 4 per cent, according to the latest polls. If the polls can be trusted, that’s a serious collapse.

Can Ukip get anymore MPs?

In the 2015 general election Ukip contested nearly every seat and got 13 per cent of the vote, making it the third biggest party (although is only returned one MP). Now Ukip is reportedly struggling to find candidates and could stand in as few as 100 seats. Ukip leader Paul Nuttall will stand in Boston and Skegness, but both ex-leader Nigel Farage and donor Arron Banks have ruled themselves out of running this time.

How many members does Ukip have?

Ukip’s membership declined from 45,994 at the 2015 general election to 39,000 in 2016. That’s a worrying sign for any political party, which relies on grassroots memberships to put in the campaigning legwork.

What does Ukip's decline mean for Labour and the Conservatives? 

The rise of Ukip took votes from both the Conservatives and Labour, with a nationalist message that appealed to disaffected voters from both right and left. But the decline of Ukip only seems to be helping the Conservatives. Stephen Bush has written about how in Wales voting Ukip seems to have been a gateway drug for traditional Labour voters who are now backing the mainstream right; so the voters Ukip took from the Conservatives are reverting to the Conservatives, and the ones they took from Labour are transferring to the Conservatives too.

Ukip might be finished as an electoral force, but its influence on the rest of British politics will be felt for many years yet. 

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