The Staggers

The New Statesman’s rolling politics blog

Lib Dems hit a new poll low

Support for Clegg’s party falls to just 8 per cent – the lowest level in 20 years.

By George Eaton Published 09 December 2010 12:20

There's no chance of the coalition's tuition fees bill being defeated in the Commons this afternoon, but Nick Clegg's big day hasn't got off to a good start. The latest YouGov poll puts the Lib Dems on just 8 per cent, their lowest level of support in any survey since 1990.

As ever, one should add the caveat that this could be an outlier, but it will certainly concentrate MPs' minds ahead of the vote. Several have majorities smaller than the number of students and prospective students in their constituencies. If repeated at an election on a uniform swing, the latest figures would reduce Clegg's party to a rump of just ten seats.

Latest poll (YouGov/Sun): Labour majority of 2

It's the sense that the Lib Dems played fast and loose with the voters, rather than the decision to raise tuition fees itself, that is proving truly toxic for the party. The memory of Clegg's more-pious-than-thou act is still fresh enough for voters to be outraged by his policy reversal. As the FT's Alex Barker noted recently, the Lib Dem leader missed multiple opportunities to avoid this fate.

New Statesman poll of polls

Hung parliament, Labour 9 seats short

The Lib Dems must have known that their manifesto promise to phase out tuition fees would not survive a hung parliament. Indeed, there was every possibility that they would be forced to raise them. But still they chose to sign a specific (and highly publicised) NUS pledge for crude electoral purposes.

Clegg's subsequent decision to take "full ownership" of the coalition programme (perhaps his greatest mistake) meant that abstention was no longer a credible option. And, don't forget, a mass abstention would still have broken the election pledge to vote against any increase in fees.

The dizzying range of justifications since offered for the party's U-turn (the Greek crisis, the state of the public finances, the coalition agreement, the "progressive" nature of the new policy) has only further antagonised voters. The Lib Dems have alieanted swaths of their natural supporters. As things stand, there's little to suggest they'll win them back.

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Tags: tuition fees Liberal Democrats Nick Clegg Polls Guide

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41 comments

Fri, 2010-12-10 21:24 — slightlyiratecouncillor

Now that the LibDems are being overtaken by 'Others', it is time we heard more about who those Others are. Will we start to see the Green Party rivalling the LDs in the polls, as we did in 1989/1990?....

Sun, 2010-12-12 10:58 — gerry (not verified)

Matthew - all the pollsters agree that Britain as a whole has had a numerical electoral right wing majority since about 1951.

Conservatives usually get between 31%-43% of the vote (in 2010 it was 36%)

Lib Dems, 60% of whom describe themselves as right wing, get 18%-23. In 2010 right wing Lib Dems accounted for appx 14% of the vote

UKIP, BNP, UUP and DUP and other independent right wing candidates combined usually get about 7-8% of the vote

That makes - in 2010- appx 57/58% of the electorate who voted were broadly right wing.

Only Blair in 1997 and 2001 has ever managed to construct a numerical electoral non-right wing majority: he won 42% of the vote, and combined with the left wing Lib Dems and Greens, SDLP, and some of the Nationalists, made a non-right majority of appx 57%.

But since 2001, the right has once again returned to its majority position.

The facts are clear -even today when the Lib Dems are unpopular because of their massive tuition fee hikes, you gov say that 49% of the votes still back them and the Cons..add to that those who back UKIP, BNP, DUP, UUP etc and you get well over 55% of voters...thats a right wing majority in anyone's book!

Fri, 2010-12-10 21:46 — Barny

ha ha ha

Sat, 2010-12-11 16:15 — gerry (not verified)

Lib Dems on 8 per cent, Tories on 41, put that together and even in this week when they voted to treble tuition fees, thats 49% support for the coalition, down from 59% in May but still a remarkable figure.

There has always been a broad right wing majority in the UK as a whole, and only in 1997 and 2001 elections when Blair won nearly 42% has this right majority been overturned.

You see, approx 60% of Lib Dem voters (or Liberals before them) are broadly on the right of the political spectrum, and if their party did not exist, those that voted would plump at least 60-40 for the Tories.

Add to this UKIP and the BNP who make up 4 to 5% of the electorate at least, and you get a numerical right wing majority, somewhere in the region of 58-63&, which has been the case since 1951, with the exceptions mentioned.

It is the reaaon why the Tories have been the most successful politicsl party in any democracy except Japan's Liberal Democratic Party - at least until Blair came along.

The coalition, as John Major has pointed out, is an exercise in a final realignment of this right wing majority in the UK, with (he hopes) Lib Dems and Cons in permanent alliance, and in permanent government.

It will take a Blair-like Labour leader who can somehow peel off a sizeable % of majority right wing Lib Dems and others, to stop Major's vision coming true...somehow I dont think Ed Miliband is it.

Fri, 2010-12-10 13:54 — Luddite (not verified)

Let's not forget, if it wasn't for Mr Clegg. We would now have a Tory majority, and lets be honest here. The coalition are stronger for this political victory than before, think about it?

Thu, 2010-12-09 20:44 — matthew fox (not verified)

Lib Dems have done a lot to send disaffected Labour voters back to Labour.

Nick Clegg thinks there is votes in being to the right of Labour, but he will soon work out, that piece of political space is very narrow.

Thu, 2010-12-09 21:53 — Lewis B (not verified)

Thank goodness I live in Scotland where we at least have the alternative of voting SNP. Not perfect, I grant you, but better than tweedledum, tweedledee, tweedledems...

Sun, 2010-12-12 17:14 — Rhys (not verified)

The LibDems' actions in going against their very specific manifesto pledge are not merely a PERCEIVED act of treachery : they are a real act of 'trahison des clercs' against the plebs who took them at their word.
Ditto Tory ditching of their very specific pledges to get tough on crime ( see esp the pledge on knife carriers ).
What these actions do is totally destroy any residual faith amongst the electorate ( and in the case of the student fees issue the young and upcoming electorate in particular ) that politicians' commitments at election time mean anything.

What can Tories or LibDems possibly say next time round which can possibly evoke any trust whatsoever ?

Destruction of trust in the democratic process ( and following so quickly on all the mea culpas and promises to do better after the expenses scandals ) is a far more important issue than is the comparatively technical point about fees.
The alleged savings from the new fees arrangement will not even kick in till after the election after next ( when some paltry re-payments of loans start trickling in ) so all that trust has been squandered for very little.

Sun, 2010-12-12 17:33 — Nick9

I don't think, come the next, GE that people will, by default vote Tory instead of Liberal. The vast majority of Liberals did so because they didn't want the Tories. We'll see in May what people make of the referendum vote. Labour should be talking to disgruntled Liberals, Tories and other fringe parties. But on the other hand, whoever wants another coalition again? I'd like to see a constitutional change on coalitions so that all parties have to work together in a percentage of votes reflected in what they polled.

Mon, 2010-12-13 23:32 — Mulligrubs (not verified)

Perhaps the truth can be seen clearly now the bloom has gone off the rose garden love-in. Clegg is indeed the best political Joke that Cameron knows - and that includes Boris

Mon, 2010-12-13 23:34 — Mulligrubs (not verified)

Perhaps the truth can be seen clearly now the bloom has gone off the rose garden love-in. Clegg is indeed the best political Joke that Cameron knows - and that includes Boris

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Sat, 2010-12-11 20:37 — matthew fox (not verified)

Right wing Majority?

When has the Conservative Party ever polled 50%?

John Major promised an golden age of prosperity, remember that gag.

Thu, 2010-12-09 12:45 — mcquade

And regional analysis of the poll leaves them at 3% in the North - wipped out.

Thu, 2010-12-09 12:47 — swatantra nandanwar

Maybe its a price worth paying for actual experience in Govt.
Of course things could dramatically improve in the economy, thanks to the measures put in by Brown, for which unfairly the Coalition will get the credit, but thats the calculated risk Clegg is taking. If growth and employment improve by next year the Lib Dems will be laughing.
The problem for Labour is that they have to show a radical change and a charasmatic leader. Its unlikely that Labour will ever consider aligning itself with the Lib Dems again, since the Lib Dems have their natural partners in the Tories.
Labour must not also be seen as 'talking the economy down', although if a double dip recession occurs because of Tory measures, it could kill off the Coalition for good.

Sat, 2010-12-11 22:12 — Loftustiger

Clegg sold his soul to grab a piece of power and is now paying the price he better try to get his PR pushed thru before it's to late !

Thu, 2010-12-09 12:54 — zahidf (not verified)

'The problem for Labour is that they have to show a radical change and a charasmatic leader. Its unlikely that Labour will ever consider aligning itself with the Lib Dems again, since the Lib Dems have their natural partners in the Tories.'

Please. All the Lib Dems have to do is get rid off clegg and cable, and they could easily go into coalition with Labour

Fri, 2010-12-10 03:57 — ellieban (not verified)

Bucking against the trend, I know, but I think Clegg is doing a good job. It was inevitable that support would crumble, I doubt there's anything he could have done that would have avoided it (short of delivering on every pledge in the manifesto and probably not even that) and, as the minor party in a coalition, that was never going to happen.

There's a long time between now and the next election so let's wait and see what the polls say then shall we?

I confess there is only one place I feel Nick Clegg has performed under par, and that is getting the truth out there. In particular, the tuition fee hike is a Tory policy. Key Lib Dems are supporting it because they have managed to make significant changes that make it fairer and more accessible than the current system and because they have exerted their influence to make it much better than whatever rubbish we would have had foisted upon us by a 100% Tory government, but it is manifestly NOT what they would be doing if they were completely in control.

I get quite frustrated and angry at the blame laid at the feet of the Lib Dems. This is a majority Tory Government with majority Tory policies and yet Nick Clegg is getting all the blame for every policy that the population don't like, as if they didn't vote in the tories in the first place! Compromise is the reality of a coalition, if you don't like it, if you think Nick Clegg should have been able to deliver on all his manifesto promises, then you should have voted Lib Dem!

Fri, 2010-12-10 03:59 — ellieban (not verified)

Oh, and people are still voting 41% Tory because, for some reason, they are blaming the Lib Dems for the gathering storm and not the Conservatives. It baffles me, but go figure!

Fri, 2010-12-10 04:29 — keith gerrard

The Lib Dems low standing in the polls is due to their political opportunism, and lack of political principle. In the Coalition they support many policies they have in the past strongly opposed.

Sat, 2010-12-11 22:24 — Aleph1 (not verified)

So, basically the Libs or rather Clegg has committed suicide to strengthen Cameron - nice move! Let's hope the residents of Sheffield Hallam see sense at the next general election

Sat, 2010-12-11 22:27 — Loftustiger

I bet the Tories back track on PR voting reform now they see how weak the Libs are

Fri, 2010-12-10 05:40 — dgbhfgjfkgfh (not verified)

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Thu, 2010-12-09 13:34 — Dave C (not verified)

George wrote, "... this could be an outlier ..." As the graph line at http://today.yougov.co.uk/politics/govt-trackers-update-8th-dec shows, YouGov haven't had the Lib Dems much above 12& since the beginning of October.

What's more unusual is the gap between YouGov and the others:

ICM 14% (21/11)

Populus 15% (24/10)

Ipsos-MORI 14% (14/11)

ComRes 12% (29/11)

YouGov seems to be always consistently lower than the others. As YouGov publishes more frequently than the others, it weights the rolling average, I'd imagine.

So is YouGov consistently better than the others or consistently worse? For now, I'm going to be a pessimist.

Thu, 2010-12-09 13:40 — Tom Maguire (not verified)

No surprise that the public don't trust the Lib-Dems. We can't trust a party that makes a pledge and then reneges on it at the first opportunity.

Thu, 2010-12-09 13:45 — Jamie1

By claiming that they can't afford not to go through with this stupid new idea shows they are weak-willed; they know the Coalition will fail the second they stop nodding their heads and stand up for their alleged 'priority' policies.

Sun, 2010-12-12 00:47 — Ivan Miletitch

This is pretty well deserved! How can any politician make a solemn pledge & break it within weeks of the election results! For the Lib-dems, this I'm afraid will be the price to pay for their leader's political ambition! The urge to be in government was too great ...& the electorate have just discovered than 'whiter than white' was just the same - probably worse - than the average politician, at least we knew what to expect of the 'old guard'....

Thu, 2010-12-09 14:10 — Trevor (not verified)

Mendacity, hypocrisy and treachery are all the electorate can expect from our venal, amoral "representatives". Is anyone dumb enough to think things whould be any different under "Red Ed" and his crypto-Tory chums?

Thu, 2010-12-09 14:15 — yuccuplant (not verified)

I think the tories will win the next election but i fear the libdems will be all but wiped out in the process i see no other way for them.

People cant and wont trust them after this,they're the bad guys because,and say what you like about Dave he's used them wonderfully well to shield the tories from most if not all of the harshest criticism that's come along.

And Clegg has let them do it,

Thu, 2010-12-09 14:43 — Jamie1

Clegg has been a fool- Cameron could be writing articles to newspapers about why Clegg is right to side with the Tories, but the Tories are letting the Lib Dems appear meek and misguided, despite actually agreeing with them.

Basically, the Lib Dems are thoughtless and misguided in their policy, but we are blameless. Although we came up with the idea, the Lib Dems agreed so we HAD to stop the poor from getting into higher education.

Fri, 2010-12-10 10:23 — writeoff (not verified)

Hilarious.

Fri, 2010-12-10 10:43 — Corcaighrebel

Clegg and the boys got played like a fiddle by the Conservatives, to the fore on university fees. Political amateurs. Vince Cable is unrecognisable while Clegg has become the invisible man. Lib Dem party spilt down the middle. Totally predicatable, big party eating the small one, happens everytime in coalitions, should never have gone in with the Conservatives.

Sat, 2011-01-01 19:44 — Andy (not verified)

Clegg is causing irreparable damage to the Lib Dems. The only thing that will save the Lib Dems now is restoration of integrity, something not achievable with Clegg at the helm.

Tue, 2010-12-14 20:33 — matthew fox (not verified)

Glad to know you don't have to poll 50% inorder to be a majority.

Thu, 2010-12-09 15:26 — clearhead? (not verified)

Why are people actually still voting for the Conservatives? 41% ?! Haven't the people learnt from the last general election and the merciless austerity measures that ensued- or are they waiting for the Tories to pull the plug on the dignity of their entire existence?

Thu, 2010-12-09 16:53 — Jamie1

Some people just vote Tory, read the odd article in the Daily Telegraph and have absolutely no political understanding whatsoever. It was only after I ripped his tenuously simple argument apart that my father realised that Gordon Brown did not in fact cause the global financial crisis. :P

Mon, 2010-12-13 05:59 — Loftustiger

don't be surprised if this doesn't bring down the coalition, the "leftie" libs will start to panic and offer to team up with Labour as they know Clegg doesn't have the backbone to stand up to Cameron.

Thu, 2010-12-09 17:20 — saltyseadog1

Let us see how these polls are in the first three months of next year when VAT goes up to 20% and a whole host of cuts and rising unemployment figures start to hit home.

Thu, 2010-12-09 17:28 — Dave C (not verified)

Why are people actually still voting for the Conservatives? 41% ?!

Part of the Liberal Democrat decline is about 4% of the population voted Liberal Democrat in the General Election but have now switched to the Tories.

It's the "Why vote for the monkey when you can vote for the organ grinder?" principle.