The four big tests for Nick Clegg

And tuition fees is not among them.

No sooner had the Conservative / Liberal Democrat coalition been created on 11 May than people start asking how long would it last -- and how long would Nick Clegg be part of it?

Ladbrokes, at least, believes that the current Lib Dem leader is likely to be there at the next general election, nominally on 7 May 2015. The bookmaker is offering a less-than-generous 1/3 that he will still be in place, and 2/1 that he will have been replaced.

All of which prompts Mike Smithson over at PoliticalBetting to ask what would prompt -- or force -- Clegg to stand down before 2015. For starters, Smithson identifies four upcoming tests over the next six months:

For Clegg a lot could depend on three elections in the next six months - the [Oldham and Saddleworth] by election, the English locals and the Scottish and Welsh votes on May 5th and, of course, the AV referendum on the same day.

And concludes:

If the yellows beat expectations in just one of those then I think that he's safe.

An October YouGov poll put the Lib Dems on 8 per cent among the Holyrood electorate, while just a third of UK voters are in favour of the alternative vote. So perhaps expectations are already being managed downwards, albeit inadvertently. A heroic failure to see the AV referendum through or something less than wipeout in any of the array of forthcoming elections will strengthen, not weaken, the Lib Dem leader. Perhaps.

One area that Smithson doesn't touch on directly, but that has tested Clegg's authority, is university funding -- and likely for good reason. Last Wednesday's protests and those at 30 Millbank on 10 November offer a measure of the disquiet out there, but do nothing to change the parliamentary arithmetic.

It's true that some 31 Lib Dem MPs -- all of whom have significant numbers of student voters in their constituencies -- may rebel against plans to allow universities to charge up to £9,000 per year. However, in order to defeat the government a rump of Tory backbenchers would need to join them -- and that is not going to happen.

So, tuition fees don't present an immediate danger to Clegg and the coalition but they have made him public enemy number one among a significant constituency of voters. Writing in the Sunday Telegraph, Tim Montgomerie notes:

There is also anger about U-turns on nuclear power and the pace of deficit reduction. [Clegg] needs to remind voters that he forced Tory concessions, too - a voting system referendum and dropped commitments to cut inheritance tax, reform human rights laws and upgrade the Trident nuclear deterrent.

But those hoping that Labour can capitalise on Clegg's woes are likely to be disappointed. As Montgomerie rightly points out, Labour's attack has been blunted by divisions between leader Ed Miliband and "enforcer" Alan Johnson:

Ed Miliband should be facing an open goal - but standing between the posts is Alan Johnson. The Labour leader wants a graduate tax - an extra levy on those with a degree - to which his shadow chancellor is completely opposed. In an open letter to Mr Miliband, shortly before accepting his new role, he wrote: "For goodness' sake, don't pursue a graduate tax. We should be proud of our brave and correct decision to introduce tuition fees."

 

Jon Bernstein, former deputy editor of New Statesman, is a digital strategist and editor. He tweets @Jon_Bernstein. 

Coders for Corbyn
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Can emojis win elections?

Jeremy Corbyn has claimed his campaign's use of technology would be the "path to victory" in 2020. But can emojis play a meaningful part? 

When photographic campaign badges were first unleashed in 1860, a Facebook commenter posted on Abraham Lincoln’s wall: “What is this? Today’s youth are doomed” and then, a moment later, “You call this news?”*

It might be tempting to react in a similar way to the fact that Jeremy Corbyn emoji – or rather, Jeremoji – are now a thing. Small digital stickers of the flat-capped Labour leader expressing joy and sadness might seem like the End Of Serious Political Campaigning As We Know It, but are they really that different from the multitude of deft and daft political campaign buttons throughout history?

Well, yes. Because there will be a marrow.

Beyond the marrow, however, Jeremoji aren’t actually that revolutionary. Before Kim Kardashian crashed the App Store with the 9,000 downloads a second of her Kimoji in December 2015, we here at the New Statesman created a much-needed Yvette Cooper emoji. Around the same time, Bernie Sanders supporters released BerniemojiThe slightly-less pleasing to the ear Hillarymoji were also unveiled by Hillary Clinton campaigners two months ago, though none of these apps were officially endorsed by their respective candidates.

“We’re not affiliated, we’re totally independent,” says Gregory Dash from Coders for Corbyn, the group behind Jeremoji, and a wider online volunteer toolkit for Corbyn supporters. “A lot of us have social links with the campaign and we ran ideas past them and got feedback but as an organisation we’re totally independent and all volunteers.”

Dash reveals that a variety of professional and amateur artists contributed to the emoji and that unfortunately, as the marrow design is currently being finalised, it won’t be in the first version of the app. Once the app has been approved by Google Play and the App Store, it should be available to the public in the coming weeks.

“Mainly they’re just fun but we’re also hoping we’ll be able to communicate some of the main message of Jeremy’s campaign,” says Dash.

But are Dash and other developers misguided in their attempts to promote sexagenarian politicians via a communication tool favoured by teens? Hillary Clinton has already been mocked for her attempts to capture the youth vote via memes, and has proven on multiple occasions that trying to be “down with the kids” can backfire. Corbyn’s own digital manifesto was met with scorn by some yesterday.

“To be very honest, the emojis are pretty cringy,” says Max Rutter, a 17-year-old from Oxford. “I know that they are targeted towards teens but politics isn't something most teens talk about on social media, and these emojis could only be used in a political conversation. Corbyn doesn't need emojis to get teens on his side, he just needs to stick to his guns and keep telling it like it is.”

A 2013 London School of Economics study on Youth Participation In Democratic Life supports Max’s assertions. The final report found that although in theory young people wanted politicians to use social media more, in practice it led to more negative perceptions of politicians and “an increased perception of the gap between political elites and the young.” Moreover, teens exposed to a social media campaign were less likely to vote than those who only received political flyers.

Jeremoji, then, may not ultimately capture the youth vote, and nor are they likely to make lifelong Conservatives pause and say, “On second thoughts, yes. This Corbyn chap is the man for me.” So what will they achieve?

“We’re hoping to do some emojis around Corbyn’s ten pledges and allow people to share them that way,” says Dash. The app already contains emojis affiliated with the Orgreave Truth and Justice Campaign, a society seeking justice for miners after the Battle of Orgreave in June 1984. Dash also hopes to get emojis supporting the No More Blacklisting campaign and Save Our Steel.

“We want to have it so you go to the Orgreave campaign and you click the emoji and it will give you a little bit of information about the campaign as well,” Dash says. “Emojis then become a tool to communicate all these different campaigns that are going on. There are amazing things going on that the wider Labour membership may not know about.”

Coders for Corbyn seek the approval of each of these campaigns before creating the emoji, as they don’t want to seem as if they’re exploiting campaigns to make themselves look better “like Owen Smith did”. But despite their current affiliation with Corbyn, the group plan to rebrand as Coders for Labour after the leadership election.

“I’m not sure there would be the same demand for Owen Smith emojis, but we'd definitely still be producing Labour themed emojis for people to use,” says Dash, when I ask what he’d do if Smith won.

Dash tells me when iOS10 launches in the autumn, emojis will be available at three times their current size, and will be more like stickers. This means they can communicate complicated messages from various campaigns, and may also lose any potential stigma associated with the word “emoji”. In the late 20th century, campaign buttons like Lincoln’s were replaced by cheaper disposable label stickers. It makes sense for these in turn to be replaced by digital stickers. Even if emoji can’t win elections, they may still prove powerful in raising awareness.

The UK’s currently most used emoji is the despairing crying face. Personally, I see no problem with it becoming a marrow.

*May not strictly be true 

Amelia Tait is a technology and digital culture writer at the New Statesman.