Nigel Farage claims that Ukip is a “British Tea Party”

But could the party gain the same level of popular support as the US movement?

Commentators across the board have been hailing the "British Tea Party" for at least a year. Daniel Hannan, the Tory MEP, has even tried to launch one, without much success.

The latest to ride on the coat-tails of the popular US movement is Nigel Farage, newly re-elected as UK Independence Party leader. Speaking on Sky News, he said that his party shared the feeling of being "overtaxed, overgoverned, not being listened to". He claimed that this gave the party a "bigger political opportunity than ever before" to recruit Tories dissatisfied with David Cameron's EU-friendly policies.

Could Ukip be the British Tea Party? The two movements do have quite a lot in common: the anti-establishment flavour, the emphasis on small government, the nationalism. They also share a – how do I put this? – certain nuttiness, both groups containing some pretty extreme and off-centre elements.

But, crucially, does it have a capacity to gain mass appeal akin to that of the US group? It is worth remembering that the party did gain a million votes in this year's general election. Some even suggested that this small but significant tally could have cost Cameron his overall majority in the Commons.

Given Britain's electoral system, it is unlikely that Ukip will gain any seats in parliament, even if its share of the vote were to double. However, if it were to grow in support, it could influence public debate by pressuring the Conservatives from the right.

It's also worth noting that the Tea Party is a wing of the Republican Party, and so can pressurise traditionalists from within. Ukip is even more on the edges of mainstream political debate.

At the moment, it remains a fringe group. But as the US Tea Party shows, you write off the "nutters" at your peril. Stranger things have happened.

Samira Shackle is a freelance journalist, who tweets @samirashackle. She was formerly a staff writer for the New Statesman.

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Donald Trump's healthcare failure could be to his advantage

The appearance of weakness is less electorally damaging than actually removing healthcare from millions of people.

Good morning. Is it all over for Donald Trump? His approval ratings have cratered to below 40%. Now his attempt to dismantle Barack Obama's healthcare reforms have hit serious resistance from within the Republican Party, adding to the failures and retreats of his early days in office.

The problem for the GOP is that their opposition to Obamacare had more to do with the word "Obama" than the word "care". The previous President opted for a right-wing solution to the problem of the uninsured in a doomed attempt to secure bipartisan support for his healthcare reform. The politician with the biggest impact on the structures of the Affordable Care Act is Mitt Romney.

But now that the Republicans control all three branches of government they are left in a situation where they have no alternative to Obamacare that wouldn't either a) shred conservative orthodoxies on healthcare or b) create numerous and angry losers in their constituencies. The difficulties for Trump's proposal is that it does a bit of both.

Now the man who ran on his ability to cut a deal has been forced to make a take it or leave plea to Republicans in the House of Representatives: vote for this plan or say goodbye to any chance of repealing Obamacare.

But that's probably good news for Trump. The appearance of weakness and failure is less electorally damaging than actually succeeding in removing healthcare from millions of people, including people who voted for Trump.

Trump won his first term because his own negatives as a candidate weren't quite enough to drag him down on a night when he underperformed Republican candidates across the country. The historical trends all make it hard for a first-term incumbent to lose. So far, Trump's administration is largely being frustrated by the Republican establishment though he is succeeding in leveraging the Presidency for the benefit of his business empire.

But it may be that in the failure to get anything done he succeeds in once again riding Republican coattails to victory in 2020.

Stephen Bush is special correspondent at the New Statesman. His daily briefing, Morning Call, provides a quick and essential guide to British politics.