The coalition’s growth gamble is about to become clear

New figures expected to show sharp slowdown in growth.

If last week was dominated by the cuts debate, this week will be dominated by the growth debate. Both David Cameron and Ed Miliband are addressing the CBI's annual conference today, the latter making his first speech to business leaders since his election.

The data will speak for itself on Tuesday when the growth figures for the third quarter of this year are published – the first to account solely for the coalition's time in office. As today's FT reports, the consensus forecast is for the data to show that the economy grew at 0.4 per cent in the third quarter, down from 1.2 per cent in the second quarter. But, since conventional economic wisdom is rarely right, it's worth pointing out that the forecasts range from a quarterly contraction of 0.2 per cent to growth of 0.8 per cent.

In recent weeks Ed Miliband and Alan Johnson have avoided talk of a double-dip recession, instead predicting that the coalition's cuts will push Britain into an "L-shaped recession". But with the cuts and the VAT rise yet to come, we can expect growth of 0.4 per cent or lower to spark new talk of a double dip.

Here, for instance, is the verdict of Samuel Tombs at Capital Economics: "With the fiscal squeeze not yet fully under way, a figure in this region [0.4 per cent] would clearly cast further doubt on the ability of the coalition to force through a painful fiscal tightening without throwing the economy back into recession".

In addition, it's worth remembering (as few did last week) that George Osborne's room for manoeuvre is extremely limited. Interest rates are already at record lows and the exchange rate has fallen sharply since the crisis began. By contrast, as Robert Skidelsky points out in this week's issue, after the savage cuts of the 1981 Budget, Geoffrey Howe was able to cut rates by 2 per cent and prevent a precipitous economic decline.

Should growth turn negative, Osborne's only option (other than "reprofiling" the cuts) is further quantitative easing by the Bank of England. By the end of this week, the scale of the coalition's economic gamble will become clear to all.

George Eaton is political editor of the New Statesman.

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Theresa May’s stage-managed election campaign keeps the public at bay

Jeremy Corbyn’s approach may be chaotic, but at least it’s more authentic.

The worst part about running an election campaign for a politician? Having to meet the general public. Those ordinary folk can be a tricky lot, with their lack of regard for being on-message, and their pesky real-life concerns.

But it looks like Theresa May has decided to avoid this inconvenience altogether during this snap general election campaign, as it turns out her visit to Leeds last night was so stage-managed that she barely had to face the public.

Accusations have been whizzing around online that at a campaign event at the Shine building in Leeds, the Prime Minister spoke to a room full of guests invited by the party, rather than local people or people who work in the building’s office space.

The Telegraph’s Chris Hope tweeted a picture of the room in which May was addressing her audience yesterday evening a little before 7pm. He pointed out that, being in Leeds, she was in “Labour territory”:

But a few locals who spied this picture online claimed that the audience did not look like who you’d expect to see congregated at Shine – a grade II-listed Victorian school that has been renovated into a community project housing office space and meeting rooms.

“Ask why she didn’t meet any of the people at the business who work in that beautiful building. Everyone there was an invite-only Tory,” tweeted Rik Kendell, a Leeds-based developer and designer who says he works in the Shine building. “She didn’t arrive until we’d all left for the day. Everyone in the building past 6pm was invite-only . . . They seemed to seek out the most clinical corner for their PR photos. Such a beautiful building to work in.”

Other tweeters also found the snapshot jarring:

Shine’s founders have pointed out that they didn’t host or invite Theresa May – rather the party hired out the space for a private event: “All visitors pay for meeting space in Shine and we do not seek out, bid for, or otherwise host any political parties,” wrote managing director Dawn O'Keefe. The guestlist was not down to Shine, but to the Tory party.

The audience consisted of journalists and around 150 Tory activists, according to the Guardian. This was instead of employees from the 16 offices housed in the building. I have asked the Conservative Party for clarification of who was in the audience and whether it was invite-only and am awaiting its response.

Jeremy Corbyn accused May of “hiding from the public”, and local Labour MP Richard Burgon commented that, “like a medieval monarch, she simply briefly relocated her travelling court of admirers to town and then moved on without so much as a nod to the people she considers to be her lowly subjects”.

But it doesn’t look like the Tories’ painstaking stage-management is a fool-proof plan. Having uniform audiences of the party faithful on the campaign trail seems to be confusing the Prime Minister somewhat. During a visit to a (rather sparsely populated) factory in Clay Cross, Derbyshire, yesterday, she appeared to forget where exactly on the campaign trail she was:

The management of Corbyn’s campaign has also resulted in gaffes – but for opposite reasons. A slightly more chaotic approach has led to him facing the wrong way, with his back to the cameras.

Corbyn’s blunder is born out of his instinct to address the crowd rather than the cameras – May’s problem is the other way round. Both, however, seem far more comfortable talking to the party faithful, even if they are venturing out of safe seat territory.

Anoosh Chakelian is senior writer at the New Statesman.

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