New poll shows Ed Miliband taking the lead
A poll of party members and trade unionists shows the younger Miliband benefiting from second preferences.
By Samira Shackle Published 12 September 2010 11:27
A new poll of Labour Party members and trade union activists has shown Ed Miliband in the lead.
The YouGov/Sunday Times poll (£) puts Ed Miliband on 51 per cent, with David on 49 per cent, once second preference votes are taken into account. On the basis of first-round votes only, David was four points ahead of Ed with 36 to his brother's 32.
Supporters of the former foreign secretary have been fairly confident of his victory for several weeks. An endorsement last week by the influential left-winger Dennis Skinner was a boost to his campaign, as it negated Ed's claim to support among the left of the party.
However, this poll suggests that the contest is still incredibly close. It seems that Ed may well emerge as the "compromise candidate", benefitting from second and third preferences in Labour's complex electoral college system. As long ago as June, a poll for LabourList showed that this could be the case.
The poll also shows a split in areas of support, with David being strongly favoured by MPs and MEPs -- gaining 41 per cent of their support to Ed's 29. However, the former climate change secretary leads among trade union members, gaining 36 points to his older brother's 29.
Interestingly, a separate YouGov poll for the Sunday Times of ordinary voters suggests greater public support for David, with 30 per cent saying that he would make the best leader, compared with 16 per cent for Ed. This is in keeping with the view expressed by many MPs that David is best equipped to take the fight to the Tories.
For the Miliband brothers, there is still everything to play for.
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17 comments
Rearranging the deckchairs on the Weymouth Belle. It's complete irrelevance as to who leads this bunch of war-mongering Marxists. The UK is doomed to years of Beiruit-style conflict with the Muslims. My family now lives and works abroad. Good luck UK, you're going to need it.
@Stan Mason
Your evidence that the "warmongering" Tony Blair was a "Marxist" is what?
Oh dear Rose. "Family values" are usually an attempt to impose archaic, pre-medieval, immoral values on our bedrooms and on our living arrangements. I'll have children (or not) with whomsoever I choose, sleep (or not) with whoever I want to (so long as he/she/they all consent), and as for marriage/divorce/civil partnership/cohabitation/living separately... I'm not going to come round and ask you before I finalise my living arrangements. If you have any interest on imposing your absurd "moral" codes on me (lets bet, you got yours from your imaginary invisible friend? The one who wrote that book about 2000 years ago but hasn't popped back to say hi since?) then I have no idea why you have any interest in the Labour leadership election at all - the Tories might even be too left-wing for you these days, have you thought about the BNP?
Now Ed is trying to lean on his brothers brains to know how to runt he party. He is also kicking the unions in the teeth.'I am my own man' he says to the very unions and union members who sewed him in David's job. warned you. I hope David keeps his mouth shut
Seems like Ed M has no hang ups about challenging anyone for the Leadership, something which his brother David M had much difficulty in facing up to 2 years ago. Opportunities only come once, and you have to seize the moment.
But whoever wins, there will be a place for either brother in the Shadow Cabinet. Burnham could give David the Shadow HO and Ed the Shadow Leader of the House and perhaps Deputy Leader in the course of time.
Well if Ed does win it will be party time at Conservative Central Office.
...and with the majority of the labour electorate
funny I can think of a decent second best role for all the other candidates ecept david
....he's the most likely to fade away if he doesn't get the main prize...worryingly insubstantial
No need to shout Rose.
Ever since the start of the leadership contest, Ed Miliband has been obsessed about Iraq, despite the fact the last of the British troops left Iraq last year. I want to see a leader who can provide strong opposition to David Cameron, how on earth can we expect Ed Miliband to provide strong opposition when his favourite subject (Iraq) is:
(i) No longer an issue.
(ii) An issue which David Cameron was not involved in.
Jock, the wrong Ed or Miliband for the pre-arranged party at Conservative Central Office!
Ed Miliband SEEMS TO DESTROY family values. HE DID IT USING HIS MANIFESTO TO LOSE THE ELECTION AND NOW HE IS DOING IT TO HIS OWN BROTHER. I DON'T HAVE ANY CONFIDENCE IN HIS STYLE WHATSOEVER. HE IS A SMOOTH TALKER THAT DELIVERS BROKEN PROMISES. I DONT WANT HIM TO BE LEADER FOR THESE REASONS AND IF HE IS WILL VOTE TORY IN FUTURE. I WOULD RATHER HAVE DAVID CAMERON EVEN THOUGH I AM LABOUR. I REALLY HOPE DAVID MILIBAND WINS. DAVID MILIBAND IS NOT A BLAIRITE. HE HAS MOVED ON FROM BLAIR DAYS. HE DID THE BEST IN THE LEADERSHIP DEBATE AND HE COMES ACROSS MORE AS THE ONE WHO UNITES THE PARTIES AND A PRIME MINISTER IN WAITING..
IT WAS ED MILIBAND WHO WAS THE CHIEF ADVISOR TO GORDON BROWN NOT DAVID MILIBAND. GORDON BROWN AND ED MILIBAND CAUSED US TO LOSE THE ELECTION. COME ON PARTY MEMBERS WAKE UP AND SMELL THE COFFEE. ED MILIBAND IS JUST SHOWING FAMILY MEMBERS HOW TO BETRAY THEIR LOVED ONES IN PUBLIC. HIS RUTHLESSNESS IS WORTHLESS AND A CON. HE MAY STAB LABOUR VOTERS IN THE BACK IF HE GETS IN.
I AM ASTONISHED TO HEAR HOW LABOUR VOTERS SUPPORT SOMEONE LIKE ED MILIBAND WHO DESTROYS FAMILY VALUES. IF THEY VOTE ED MILIBAND IN THEN DAVID CAMERON WILL ENJOY CHEWING HIM UP .
VOTE FOR THE PERSON WITH REAL VALUES AND VISION AND WHO WILL ACTUALLY DELIVER, SMART ENOUGH TO DEFEAT THE TORIES AND RESTORE BRITAIN TO BE A WORLD LEADER.
THAT IS DAVID MILIBAND FOR LEADER AND PRIME MINISTER.
Good evening to you Rose,
As a loyal Tory myself, David Miliband ('Tony Blair wannabe') will be more chewable for the Tories and Nick Clegg!
Honestly hand on heart, Ed Balls is the only one who has the experience, and if, everyone else is correct about the 'Slasher' plans and 'cuts', then Ed Balls has been right along!
ED BALLS FOR PRIME MINISTER!!!!
Rose - Something wrong with your Caps lock, or are you just shouting at us?
The fact that you're considering voting Tory in future is already sustained by your odd preoccupation with "family values". Perhaps your political affiliations were more naturally suited to the Conservative Party all along?
Ed`s world climate knowledge makes him the one best equipped to deal with the major crisi of our time .. global warming.
Rose you've just added a fair few votes to whoever you're not voting for,
you're a little bit mad
CAP LOCK OFF!
I will vote for Tory in the next election if Ed Miliband becomes Leader and shatters his brother though humiliation. I found Ed to be too scheming throughout the whole election and labour voters are blinded by his charm. I can see right through him. So I don't think Labour is fit to govern the country on those morals. We don't need Ed or Sadam Hussain or Bin Ladin or any other inconsiderate Leader.
Po
I could not vote for Ed Miliband or Labour under that basis.
I can't stand the 'electoral system of labour' and all the expensive bureaucracy that labour uses.
I was hoping David Miliband would use his brains to bring labour on the mend towards a better party. The party that I elected for years ago.
in response to the above comments about family values... I am just hoping that David locks his front door at night... because Ed Miliband might go for his wife next..in his 'moving on from labour' style.
All us middle left voters I urge you to vote middle Tory values...you will be better off under Tory or Liberal.Do keep your friends AND enemies close. I keep my fingers crossed that David Miliband takes his skills to American job in six months time if he loses. I really president Obama.
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