The Staggers

The New Statesman’s rolling politics blog

David Miliband boosted by new poll

Voters see Miliband as the most effective alternative to David Cameron.

By George Eaton Published 03 September 2010 11:37

There's some good news for David Miliband this morning, with a YouGov poll commissioned by his campaign suggesting that voters see him as the most effective alternative to David Cameron.

It found that 47 per cent of respondents believe the former foreign secretary is best placed to challenge Cameron, compared to 19 per cent for Ed Milband and 13 per cent for Ed Balls. Diane Abbott and Andy Burnham are on 11 per cent and 10 per cent, respectively.

But the finding which the Miliband campaign will trumpet is that their man has a strong lead among voters who abandoned Labour at the last election:

He has a 25 per cent lead over his brother among these voters on who would be the best alternative to Cameron, and a 27 per cent lead as the candidate most likely to persuade people to vote Labour.

As with any Labour leadership poll, it's important to add some significant qualifications. Miliband's lead may simply reflect the fact that he is the best known of the candidates; there is no reason to believe that Ed Miliband couldn't outperform him once established as leader.

Elsewhere, in a riposte to his brother's repeated warning that the party cannot remain in the "New Labour comfort zone", Miliband tells the Sun: "We need a majority strategy, not a minority strategy."

No one could argue with that, but the assumption made by too many of Miliband's supporters is that a "majority strategy" necessarily entails greater compromise with the right. The psephological reality is that Labour has lost five million votes since 1997, only a million of which went to the Tories.

The party's most popular policies, such as the 50p top tax rate and the bankers' bonus tax, have come when it has broken with Blairite tradition. The need to move beyond New Labour is no longer just a matter of ethics, but one of electoral necessity.

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Tags: David Miliband Labour leadership

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16 comments

Fri, 2010-09-03 11:54 — monkee (not verified)

He is the only possible alternative to Cameron - if any of the others win the leadership then it'll take a real disaster for the Tories not to win next time.
On a similar note - is there even any doubt in this contest? David is almost certain to win, or am I wrong?

Fri, 2010-09-03 11:54 — Mike S (not verified)

"Poll produces findings supporting poll's sponsor shock" Whatever next?

Fri, 2010-09-03 11:58 — Dave C (not verified)

You missed the big story in the Guardian article: Baldrick endorses Ed Miliband.

Fri, 2010-09-03 12:07 — Dorian (not verified)

Ed Miliband is the only real alternative to Cameron, is we get David he will be too similar, so much fighting over the centre ground. Labour needs to go back to the pre-foot days.

Fri, 2010-09-03 12:08 — ang (not verified)

Great news, we have a real chance to get rid of the Tories with David Miliband, he oozes sophistication, intelligence and heart, everything Cameron lacks.

Fri, 2010-09-03 12:11 — alan (not verified)

For me David M is the only choice but it was close in the end between him and Burnham who impressed me over the campaign.

Like it or not the next election will be won or lost in the centre not to the left or right but those people who waver every election i think David M can and will bring them back to us as well as giving Cameron a hard time every week.

Fri, 2010-09-03 12:49 — Nick (not verified)

Great news! I honestly think DM is our best hope, he'll take Cameron and Clegg on and make mincemeat of them when the real damage starts to be felt in October. I reckon this will all start to go badly wrong for the coalition in the early part of next year, it'll just be too much gloom and no growth. People will be craving for slower defict reduction and DM will show them the way. People have never given their mass approval of this lot, a credible alternative is what we need to see.

Fri, 2010-09-03 12:56 — Mike S (not verified)

@Nick But I thought DM was for faster deficit reduction than the other candidates as was his master Blair. DM's baggage from Iraq will continue to weigh heavily and be a distraction...

Fri, 2010-09-03 13:16 — Tim (not verified)

The Guardian report seems to me to be saying that, once the don't know figures are included, its "none of the above, thank you". If someone can crunch the numbers please do.

Fri, 2010-09-03 13:40 — Sam (not verified)

'As with any Labour leadership poll, it's important to add some major qualifications. Miliband's lead may simply reflect the fact that he is the best-known of the candidates, there's no reason to believe that Ed Miliband couldn't outperform him once established as leader.'

That's not a major qualification, that's a major assumption. Ed Miliband has had a lot of exposure in the last few years and Ed Balls is hardly an unknown. The other two maybe less well known.

Surely, if you're not an Ed Miliband fanboy, there are reasons to believe might not be a better leader than D Miliband?

Fri, 2010-09-03 13:54 — Terrible But True (not verified)

In terms of choices for the country, and heights of bars, I see little to be encouraged by from an colour of corner

Fri, 2010-09-03 14:36 — thinkov

blimey I didn't know posts could be removed

hence my cheeky four letterer

Come on Diane

Fri, 2010-09-03 14:43 — Clem the Gem

Vote Dianne number one, Ed m number two.
That all of them should be included in the next shadow cabinet should be self-evident.
Balls looks like the next shadow Chancellor without a doubt.

Fri, 2010-09-03 14:52 — swatantra nandanwar

Good news for DM but bad news for rank and file, grassroots and envelope stuffers. We really need a radical root and branch major overhaul but we won't get that with DM.

Fri, 2010-09-03 15:00 — Nick (not verified)

Mike S. When I mean slower deficit reduction, I mean slower than this lot and their determined wish to pay it back within no time at all. It's true about the Iraq baggage, but I think DM will score by insisting that distraction politics relating to the past are not the way of dealing with the present. I reckon he'll be good at putting Cameron in his place and highlighting his flawed policies by providing better and more viable alternatives.