Has David Miliband wrecked his brother's big day?

Miliband heard attacking Harman for applauding Ed's criticism of the Iraq war.

On Monday night I heard one of David Miliband's aides remark to him: "you will be guarded, won't you?", as he prepared to enter Labour's annual Diversity Nite. With an audible sigh, he replied: "oh, for God's sake". But her words proved prescient.

During the leader's speech, ITV news cameras picked up the elder Miliband, with a look of pure murder on his face, leaning towards Harriet Harman as she happily applauded his brother's condemnation of the Iraq war. According to the station's lipreaders, he said: "Why are you clapping? You voted for it." To which Harman is said to have replied: "I'm clapping because he's leader and, as you know, I'm supporting him."

The remark reveals more than Miliband's dislike of those who claim to be wise after the event. It betrays his intense frustration at the way Ed's opposition to the Iraq war (thanks to my colleague Mehdi Hasan, for instance, we now know that he lobbied Gordon Brown to oppose the war) helped give him the edge in the leadership contest.

Just as Cherie Blair's "liar" attack famously overshadowed all coverage of Brown's 2006 speech, I expect Miliband's words will do the same today.

David has now left the conference and headed back to London. And, whatever his response to tonight's news, it's looking even more unlikely that he'll serve in Ed's shadow cabinet.

George Eaton is political editor of the New Statesman.

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What are Len McCluskey's chances of re-election at Unite?

The union boss's re-election bid will have far-reaching consequences for the Labour party. 

Len McCluskey has stepped down early as general secretary of Unite, Britain’s largest trade union, in order to stand again for a third term. The contest has potentially far-reaching consequences for the Labour party. McCluskey was elected in 2013 to serve a five-year term; but his supporters hope that the move will allow him to stay in post until the next general election. 

Unite, as well as being Britain’s biggest trade union, is the largest affiliate to the Labour party. That makes it a power player in the party’s internal politics, although their reach and influence is often overstated. It is the GMB, a trade union from the party’s centre, which has dominated parliamentary selections so far in this parliament. “It’s easier for people who’ve met Lisa Johnson [the GMB’s political officer in charge of selection] once in the pub to get selected than it is for Len to get his favourites in,” jokes one trade union official.

That McCluskey is going now and not in 2018 is itself the result of events beyond his control. Assistant general secretary Steve Turner, long spoken of as McCluskey’s chosen successor, is judged not to have  the credibility with Unite’s left flank to win. McCluskey, who is 66, had been trying to overturn a rule barring him from standing again in 2018 due to his age. However, that plan has been mothballed after it became apparent that he does not have the necessary votes among the executive committee.

McCluskey has been dogged by the widespread perception – one that Unite’s press officers strongly deny – that his preference in the 2015 Labour leadership election was Andy Burnham, not Jeremy Corbyn. (In the end, Unite backed Corbyn.)  That matters because in 2013, McCluskey’s strongest opposition came from the left, in the shape of Jerry Hicks, a member of the Respect party who has tried for the top job three times. Since then, McCluskey has been a vocal supporter of Corbyn’s leadership and Unite underwrote much of the Islington MP's second leadership bid. But the perception that he is a fairweather friend of the Corbyn project still lingers in some circles.

However, McCluskey is unlikely to face a well-organised challenge from the left, which would potentially be fatal. 

Who might face him? Hicks is believed to be highly unlikely to mount a fourth bid for the job, while Sharon Graham, the director of organising, is “ambitious but will sit this one out”, say insiders. It is expected that someone from Unite Scotland will likely make a bid. The great hope for Labour’s Corbynsceptics is Gerard Coyne, the regional secretary in the west Midlands. Allies of McCluskey hoped he could be bought off with a parliamentary seat, but he is now all-but-certain to challenge McCluskey for the post.

McCluskey is well-prepared for his bid. Jennie Formby, a close aide and former political director, now serves as regional secretary in the South-East, in preparation for the crucial task of getting the vote out for her boss. He starts as the frontrunner, albeit a vulnerable one. Coyne, for his part, has the advantage of coming from the West Midlands, where the old Labour right – once the backbone of Amicus and its predecessor unions, now merged into Unite – is still strong and relatively well-organised.

But here's the question. Has McCluskey's friendliness with the Corbynite left alienated his members with high-paying industrial jobs, who are not enamoured with the current Labour leader? McCluskey’s allies hope that he has done enough in defending Labour’s policy commitment to Trident to offset his support for Corbyn, who is opposed to the nuclear deterrent. His opponents believe they can successfully link him to the Labour leadership’s opposition to fracking, pharmaceuticals and defence, all of which are industries whose members are represented by Unite.

This election matters within the Labour party because Unite has multiples votes on its ruling national executive committee, and on the conference floor. It is also keen to put forward Unite-backed parliamentary candidates. So whether Len McCluskey serves another term could change the direction of British politics. 

Stephen Bush is special correspondent at the New Statesman. His daily briefing, Morning Call, provides a quick and essential guide to British politics.