The Staggers

The New Statesman’s rolling politics blog

Syndicate contentRSS

Is Trident New Labour’s shibboleth?

Fear of a return to the 1980s has prevented an open debate on nuclear weapons.

On 25 September, the next leader of the Labour Party will be announced. This is the person Labour believes should hold the keys to Britain's nuclear arsenal.

Yet, despite one of the longest leadership campaigns in memory, there has been no detailed debate about the role and scale of Trident, Britain's continuous at-sea nuclear deterrent.

The clearest positions have been adopted by Diane Abbott, who supports unilateral nuclear disarmament, and David Miliband, who argues that a full renewal of Trident is the only minimal deterrent option Britain has.

To many Labour observers, David Miliband's views represent the head and Abbott's the heart of their party's attitude to nuclear deterrence -- that Britain gets behind Trident or gets out of the nuclear game.

This is a missed opportunity, as a growing number of military experts are voicing scepticism about the current cost and strategic benefit of a defence system designed for the cold war era.

In July, the leading military think tank Rusi published the excellent report Continuous at Sea Deterrence: Costs and Alternatives (PDF). Written by Professor Malcolm Chalmers, one of Britain's foremost nuclear experts, the report lays out four clear options short of full renewal.

According to Chalmers, simply delaying the decision to renew fully for another five years could save as much as £5bn over the next decade. This at a time of severe government debt. Other options considered, such as reducing the number of submarines, could make even more savings while maintaining an appropriate deterrent.

In response to claims that anything less than the immediate renewal of Trident endangers Britain's ability to retaliate to a nuclear attack, Chalmers says it is a matter of "balancing the risk".

He makes the case that Britain's nuclear response is at present maintained in anticipation of a massive surprise attack, which could destroy that response outright. By contrast, the rest of Britain's armed forces are designed on the assumption that the UK would have a long warning period of threat to its homeland. This has allowed conventional forces to be designed primarily to fight expeditionary wars abroad.

Chalmers argues that if a cold-war-type threat to the UK re-emerged in the next 20 or 30 years, then Britain could re-equip as that threat began to loom on the horizon.

The failure to discuss the full range of options on Trident renewal properly suggests Labour leadership candidates are still defined by the battles of the 1980s. Eric Joyce MP, a former PPS to the defence secretary, has observed that Labour's "strict nuclear line" comes from the perception that advocating unilateral disarmament was a key failing in Labour's 1983 manifesto -- nicknamed the "longest suicide note in history".

Since then, Britain's nuclear deterrent has become a shibboleth for those in the party to define themselves against.

But it is easy to overemphasise the importance of this policy to Labour's wilderness years. Given issues such as the Falklands victory, the split that led to the creation of the Social Democratic Party and the miners' strikes, the role of nuclear disarmament in losing Labour elections was perhaps more emblematic than critical. When the policy was dropped after the 1987 defeat, Labour appeared no more electable for it in 1992.

It is also important to remember that Labour in the 1980s was not simply made up of a unilateral disarmament left and a pro-nuclear right. A third way was followed by a group of more than 60 Labour MPs who supported the European Nuclear Disarmament Campaign (END).

While END never captured the public consciousness in the manner of CND, it successfully built a broad coalition of unions, politicians and civil society groups across the continent in favour of a European nuclear-free zone "from Poland to Portugal" (PDF). The main focus was to rid Europe of short-range "battlefield" or tactical nuclear weapons, which were seen as increasing the chances of a nuclear exchange.

This was a multilateralist, pragmatic disarmament movement, mainly supported by left-leaning Labour MPs, such as Robin Cook. It could claim a tangible success in putting pressure on the superpowers for the eventual withdrawal of tactical nuclear weapons by the end of the 1980s from Europe.

Such a third way is missing from the debate, which is still split between backing a maximal deterrent or unilateral disarmament. There is an opportunity for Labour's next leader to support a cost-effective, credible nuclear weapons system, built to protect against the threats of today, not the ghosts of the past.

Alex Holland is a Labour councillor for Brixton Hill, Lambeth

14 comments

Martin L's picture

just because the septics have bailed us out twice, why would they do it again if we disarmed?

And if they did, at what cost? Bugger knows how many 1000's of Billions..........

Si vis pacem, para bellum

Alex Holland's picture

BF thank you for your comments. I was referring to the Intermediate Nuclear Forces Treaty of 1987. While it greatly reduced the amount of cruise and other missile-based tactical systems, it did indeed leave a number of other battlefield weapons scattered across Europe http://bit.ly/acxmAK. Yes, unilateral disarmament is not an extreme position - even TB was a CND member.

chris's picture

re dirty bombs:

us army studies have shown conclusively that dirty bombs are totally ineffective for radiological warfare even if the bombed city doesn't launch a massive cleanup operation. unfortunately the meeja loves the dirty bomb and has failed to mention that nobody uses dirty bombs because its a stupid idea that doesn't work.

http://www.thesamosa.co.uk/index.php/comment-and-analysis/politics/109-d...

"The threat posed by terrorists letting off a radioactive bomb is far less than dishonest politicans would have us believe, argues Sandy McNeill..."

Luddite's picture

Money well spent. Many on the political-left opposed Britain's Nuclear deterrent, because they wished to see Britain weak and defenceless and ripe for soviet invasion and occupation. Let's no make the same mistake.

Adam Dutton's picture

I am happy with a debate between maintaining trident or removing it entirely. The third ways I've heard described sound like an even bigger waste of money.

Simply because if we reduce our capacity to retaliate with nuclear weapons surely we basically subsume our capability to our allies.

If the French or Americans could respond immediately then nobody would wait for us to get our reduced nuclear capability 'fired up'...

I don't mind debating removing our nuclear deterrent (though I currently support reinstating Trident). And I may be wrong but doesn't it seem like a waste of money to seek a third way which would just see the USA's missiles fired instead if it came to it?

writeoff's picture

The problem is you're not allowed to sit at the table if you don't have the guns. The Establishment can't countenance that. We wouldn't be able to shove people around so much.

There is a fourth way - dirty bombs. If we're all supposed to be so very scared of a few fanatics with a bit of uranium, why can't we tosh together our own dirty bombs on existing missiles and save a few billion quid?

I'd like to see it debated because then we'd have to argue the merits of partial rather than total annihilation of 'enemy' civilians.

Roger Ferris's picture

Re: Adam

I would suggest reading the RUSI report that is linked to - I'm glad it's getting more press coverage, but it evaluates the options in more detail.

The central point is the system is currently designed to provide retaliation in the event of a massive surprise attack on Britain. This was sensible during the Cold War, but from whom does Britain face such a threat now? Perhaps China in twenty years, but as the article notes we could re-equip as the threat loomed on the time horizon.

In addition, it is not truly independent of American control (as Tony Blair tacitly admitted in his memoirs), so worrying about which flag is on the ICBM in the initial counter-strike is beside the point. (Admittedly, TB renewed because he was worried about 'downgrading our status as a nation').

BF's picture

Alex is right that there needs to be a far greater debate on nuclear disarmament in the Labour Party though I don't agree there is a need for a new centrist grouping between two poles.

Aside from those who are committed to full replacement, others of all opinions have worked together to widen the debate - from those who would scrap Trident now, to those who would maintain it but put off any replacement decision and those who wish to continue reducing warheads and operational capability. From Jeremy Corbyn to Jon Trickett, and the resignations of Nigel Griffiths, Chris Ruane and Stephen Pound before the Commons vote.

But it would be wrong to describe those who support disarmament now as extreme. Polling evidence repeatedly states the public are opposed to Trident replacement, the governments cuts agenda can only increase this opposition.

The issue needs to be taken much more seriously by the party who often appears to stand alone amongst sister parties on this issue.

This is notable when it comes to Europe. END did not succeed in having tactical nuclear weapons removed from the continent, the US maintains hundreds in NATO bases across the continent and this makes nuclear disarmament a key issue for progressive campaigners including Labour's sister parties in what are non-nuclear countries, who have campaigned for their removal in Germany, the Netherlands and Belgium. The disarmament goals of the NPT have a far greater importance at ECOSY and IUSY events.

Des Browne's recent intervention into the debate was significant and needs to be taken up within the party.

yoctobarryc's picture

The defence of the realm is the first priority of government.

What Labour members have got to realise is that this is best achieved with nuclear weapons - while it may seem absurd to consider it, nobody would dare invade Britain while we maintain a credible nuclear deterrent.

So long as we have our nukes, we don't need planes, aircraft carriers, troops on the ground, helicopters to defend our island.

That is, unless you want to on military escapades across the globe.

Andy King's picture

If 'defence of the realm is the first priority of government' yoctobarryc would presumably then support the right of Iran, or North Korea, or indeed any other state whatsoever, to arm itself with nuclear waepons so that nobody would dare invade

writeoff's picture

Iran and North Korea at least have a reasonable expectation that might happen Andy..

NotSeenNotHeard's picture

Isn't Dianne Abbott great? unilateral disarmament? And when exactly would she do this? in the next Labour Government when she is leader in 2015? Oh hang on we already have a replacement Trident that will see us into 2015. Unlucky. But well thought through Dianne. You have my vote. Not.

I cam across this the other day - pretty worthwhile look at trident replacement issues: http://openupthedebate.wordpress.com/

stevem1's picture

Why do we need to spend all this money on nuclear weapons? Other major European countries don't have them. They are all the better for not having them. Who ,pray is going to attack us? Don,t throw Iran at me for pity,s sake.China has no reason to attack us. They are winning economically quite easily.IT is enough to maintain sufficient materiel to defend these islands against a direct attack by conventional weapons. There is no need to act as a world policeman,no need to maintain expensive based abroad in Cyprus and Germany. I have listened to friends who have been in the forces and tell about the cushy postings in these places. I no longer wish to pay for their junkets. I suppose I shall hear arguments about not being invited to the top table. Who cares! Britain should not be there anyway given the current state of the country. Our greatness is past and good riddance to it. What is good enough for Germany,Sweden,Holland,Spain and other non nuclear countries is good enough for me.I say to the dessicated minds who still long for Empire to get real. We simply cannot afford war (don,t call it defence)spending.

Lox's picture

Luddite, I'm on the right, and I think it's a complete bloody waste of money. If you want nukes,buy a few ex-Soviet SS-20s, soup up the engines and guidance systems, and get ready to have a dozen or so driving around on trucks if you ever think you might need them-then you've got your deterrent. Alternatively, do what most other countries in Europe do-learn to live without them. Personally I prefer the latter.

Latest tweets