Tories hit 2010 poll high as Lib Dems flatline

But how long will the honeymoon last?

The latest daily YouGov/Sun poll is notable for the Conservatives hitting a 2010 high of 43 per cent, while the Lib Dems continue to flatline on 15 per cent. The Tories will be relieved that, despite Labour's best efforts, the row over Michael Gove's botched schools list has failed to dent their popularity.

With the coalition still in its honeymoon period, perhaps it's not surprising that the Tories are polling well, but unless the Lib Dems' ratings improve, we can expect tensions to grow in the run-up to the conference season. Fears that Nick Clegg's party are the convenient fall guys for George Osborne's cuts are growing by the day.

Reporting the poll on Twitter last night, the Sun's politics team chose to run with the line: "what chance a snap election now to dump the Libs?" This may just be mischievous speculation, but it ignores that in recent weeks David Cameron has signalled that he views the coalition not as an alliance of convenience, but as a vehicle for realigning British politics. There is no chance of Cameron calling an early election.

New Statesman Poll of Polls

Polls

Conservative majority of 14.

Many expect the coalition to become rapidly unpopular once the cuts begin to bite, although there is some psephological evidence to suggest that this need not be case.

Tory MPs point to a recent study by Ben Broadbent and Adrian Paul of Goldman Sachs which looked at the relationship between fiscal tightening and electoral support. The results suggested that, if anything, fiscal rentrenchment increases support for the governing party.

As Broadbent and Paul write: "The three governments that have executed the most high-profile expenditure-based deficit reductions -- Ireland in 1987, Sweden in 1994 and Canada in 1994 -- were all re-elected."

But I'm still confident that the rise in VAT to 20 per cent from next year will hit the government hard. As in the case of the abolition of the 10p tax rate, it's the sort of measure people notice only once it's implemented. For political as well as economic reasons, George Osborne would be wise to call off this regressive tax rise.

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George Eaton is political editor of the New Statesman.

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Sadiq Khan is the radical Mayor that Londoners need

I've lived and worked in this city all my life. Sadiq is the mayor we need, says Andy Slaughter MP.

I have lived and worked in London all my life and for the past 20 years, as council leader or MP, represented one of its most politically fought over and eclectic parts, Hammersmith & Fulham.

I do not exaggerate in saying much of what makes London communities work is on the line in next year’s Mayoral election.

My constituents, already facing five more years of a Tory Government, need a champion in City Hall.

The current mayor has not proven capable, siding with vested interests over the needs of Londoners.

Whether it is destroying the 100 year-old Shepherds Bush Market or demolishing 750 good quality council houses in West Kensington to make way for high-rise luxury flats, Boris Johnson used his planning and regeneration powers against the wishes of residents and small businesses alike.

Boris was keen to take control of the London NHS but silent in speaking out against hospital service closures at Charing Cross, Ealing or Lewisham.

Another Tory Mayor, however presented, will be no different.

We must win to prevent the hollowing out and social cleansing of London, but we must win for positive reasons too.

That’s why we need a Mayor with a radical and bold agenda for a progressive city. For me, that person is Sadiq Khan.

The son of a bus driver and immigrant parents who moved to London for the opportunities many take for granted, he is a Londoner born and bred.

His family gave the young Sadiq the platform on which he built a career as a leading human rights lawyer, campaigning Member of Parliament and now a frontrunner for the Mayoralty.

That track record of standing up for the rule of law, universal human rights and access to justice is why so many leading figures from the legal world are today supporting Sadiq’s campaign.

Writing yesterday, in a letter to the Solicitors Journal, Michael Mansfield QC, Imran Khan and Matthew Ryder - part of the legal team who secured justice for the Lawrence family - add their support, stating that Sadiq as Mayor would “represent the very best of modern, tolerant and diverse London".

Shadow Attorney General Willy Bach and Shadow Solicitor General Karl Turner, former Director of Public Prosecutions Sir Keir Starmer, former Shadow Attorney General Emily Thornberry MP and leading human rights lawyers Baroness Helena Kennedy and Ben Emerson, are all supporting Sadiq.

What unites Sadiq’s supporters is a desire to see London governed by a dynamic and modern Mayor, suited to represent this vibrant and diverse city.  That person has to be Sadiq Khan. He can be the champion that Londoners need.