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Tories hit 2010 poll high as Lib Dems flatline

But how long will the honeymoon last?

The latest daily YouGov/Sun poll is notable for the Conservatives hitting a 2010 high of 43 per cent, while the Lib Dems continue to flatline on 15 per cent. The Tories will be relieved that, despite Labour's best efforts, the row over Michael Gove's botched schools list has failed to dent their popularity.

With the coalition still in its honeymoon period, perhaps it's not surprising that the Tories are polling well, but unless the Lib Dems' ratings improve, we can expect tensions to grow in the run-up to the conference season. Fears that Nick Clegg's party are the convenient fall guys for George Osborne's cuts are growing by the day.

Reporting the poll on Twitter last night, the Sun's politics team chose to run with the line: "what chance a snap election now to dump the Libs?" This may just be mischievous speculation, but it ignores that in recent weeks David Cameron has signalled that he views the coalition not as an alliance of convenience, but as a vehicle for realigning British politics. There is no chance of Cameron calling an early election.

New Statesman Poll of Polls

Polls

Conservative majority of 14.

Many expect the coalition to become rapidly unpopular once the cuts begin to bite, although there is some psephological evidence to suggest that this need not be case.

Tory MPs point to a recent study by Ben Broadbent and Adrian Paul of Goldman Sachs which looked at the relationship between fiscal tightening and electoral support. The results suggested that, if anything, fiscal rentrenchment increases support for the governing party.

As Broadbent and Paul write: "The three governments that have executed the most high-profile expenditure-based deficit reductions -- Ireland in 1987, Sweden in 1994 and Canada in 1994 -- were all re-elected."

But I'm still confident that the rise in VAT to 20 per cent from next year will hit the government hard. As in the case of the abolition of the 10p tax rate, it's the sort of measure people notice only once it's implemented. For political as well as economic reasons, George Osborne would be wise to call off this regressive tax rise.

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18 comments

ang's picture

i am surprised the lib dems still have any support, as they are allowing the tories, to make ordinary, hardworking people, pay for the bankers greed. Most of the cabinet are so wealthy that they don't even take their salaries, and a whip round would probably reduce the defecit significantly. Once the tories are done, their popularity will be on a par with the lib dems.

swatantra's picture

I feel rather sorry for the Lib Dems. They are in a no win situation, being squeezed from left right and centre. And this is the problem Lib Dems have: they are a ragbag of people that don't really know who or where they are. But in time will settle for a rump of a Party polling no more than 15% and winning no more than 20 seats. But thats enough to hold the balance in a hung Parliament.

Dave C's picture

@Greg asked "Where's the evidence that the VAT reduction had any stimulating effect?"

Centre for Economics and Business Research study 26 December 2009

“… the often criticised VAT cut has also had a significant impact on households’ finances. Lowering the standard VAT rate by 250 basis points is the equivalent of an additional £300 disposable income for each household in 2009 –if most firms passed on the cut, that is. The latest consumer price data suggest they actually did so. … This is broadly consistent with our estimate that the VAT cut increased disposable income by 1.2per cent –a noticeable boost to household finances.”

“…we calculate that the VAT cut boosted consumer spending by some £6.8 billion. Given this increase, the VAT reduction boosted gross domestic product by some 0.5 percent in 2009.”

http://bit.ly/943XLQ

Richard's picture

When the Conservative poll starts to come down (say 5 points) where will those votes go?
It would seem unlikely to to the Lib Dems as the same factors deflating the Conservatives vote would apply to the Liberals.
so Labour up 5 to 39, Cons down 5 to 38 and Liberals down ?
Why would the LD's want to jump ship if the prospect is wildernes again?
We are in for 5 years what ever happens. If the AV vote goes the wrong way for the LD's then we will be in for fptp and two party politics again.

Kathryn MacPherson's picture

The Condem alliance is clearly taxing the people's politician, Vince Cable. When in the wilderness Vince had a voice and he was heard 'now does he feel his title hang loose about him,like a giant's robe upon a dwarfish thief' Macbeth stole power and felt it hang about his shoulders, Vince needs to regain integrity and conVince us all again.What cost power?

factual correction's picture

Well Ben broadbent and Adrian Paul clearly don't know what they are talking about.

Fianna Fail had their worst ever result (to then) in Ireland in 1992 (after the 87 government).

The fact that they continued in government does not mean the government itself was re-elected - it was not.

A cmpletely new coalition was formed with Labour.

Ricardo1's picture

Shame the Lib Dems don't have 15% of seats!

Dave C's picture

I've found the Broadbent and Paul study rather elusive, but it appears to be called "Fiscal Tightening Need Not Be Electorally Costly, But It Will Test Government Unity."

Therein lies the problem for the Suicide Pact. When you read headlines such as "Budget cuts 'threaten 60,000 police jobs'" http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-10639938 you wonder how long it'll be before Lib Dems remember the ideals that made then come into politics in the first place.

Charliechops1's picture

One swallow does not a summer make. It is the trend that matters, statistically and politically. We are still in the honeymoon period.

Greg's picture

@ Dave C

Where's the evidence that the VAT reduction had any stimulating effect at the cost of £12 billion? The Tories wouldn't of had to raise VAT to 20% then in order to raise.... yes £12 billion.

Irish in England's picture

The facutal correction above is, itself, incorrect. Following the 1987 fiscal retrenchment in Ireland there was an election in 1989. Fianna Fails vote remained at 44% (as in '87) but they lost 4 seats (81 to 77) and formed a coalition with the Centre Right Progressive Democrats.

factual correction's picture

Irish in England is of course correct - I fogot about Charlie's little gamble.

But the point is even stronger - FF went from single party government (in a minority as many times before) to coalition.

Natalie H's picture

I think its appalling how drastically they have cut public funding and have not issued what will be put in place because of the extreme cuts.

The graduate tax takes the biscuit - graduates are striggling tofind jobs yet apparentley it seems a 'marvellous' idea to impose a tax when it is a difficult job market for many especially those from lower backgrounds.

What is clear from the cuts is how transparent the divide between the social classes will become and again as a 'civilised' and 'developed' nation we seem to be sliding back into primitive and territorial means between the rich of the poor.
We need progress not division.

Tom's picture

"But I'm still confident that the rise in VAT to 20 per cent from next year will hit the government hard"

Why' that then ? Is it because it was a really progressive measure that hit the rich when Labour put VAT up from 15% to 17.5% in January, whereas an increase to 20% next January would be regressive ? Or is it because if Labour had won and put VAT up to 19% or 20% as Mandelson says they would have, that too would have been progressive ? Or is it cos you hope that voters have memories like the proverbial goldfish and won't remember why VAT and other taxes are going up at all?

Tessa's picture

I sincerely hope that the Lib Dems will continue to see their support decline and that as a result there will be a resounding no to the their campaign on AV. This party campaigned on a number of issues such as the pace of deficit reduction and then after the formation of the coalition agreed to a faster pace. Obviously Clegg is far too young to remember the 1980s and early 1990s and the devastation caused to our manufacturing industry and the lost generation of young people unable to find gainful employment. I really do wonder if some of our leading politicians have the intellectual capacity to understand the implications of the policies which they are promulgating. It is obvious that Danny Alexander is completely out of his depth at the Treasury, I suggest he needs to study some texts on economics - Stiglitz would be a good place to start.

alan's picture

I'm sure there will be a snap election becuase once the cuts start hitting people in the pccket things will turn for the tories its now about timing thats all VAT in itself wont do the trick but when say 2 years time the waiting lists to see doctors, the services that we rely on are hit,thats when the shoot will fly so i'm sure there will have been another election by then if not i'd be frankly amazed.

Its still very much the honeymoon for them and given i seem to recal yougov seemingly constantly got the polls wrong during the election i wont be relying on it too much.

Dave C's picture

@Tom

"Labour put VAT up from 15% to 17.5%"

Rather a selective memory there. Labour reduced VAT up from 17.5% to 15% in a (successful) attempt to stimulate the economy and stop the recession getting worse. After a year, they restored it, as planned, to its previous rate.

frances smith's picture

examples of governments in canada and elsewhere that were re-elected after high profile cuts need to be looked at in context. in canada, for example, the federal government had limited responsibilities and the provincial governments were responsible for health and education, and the poorer provinces were protected. but i cant go on with this explanation of the differences for ever. but just because something was the case at some time in some place doesnt mean it will happen again.

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