Will the coalition listen to warnings over unemployment?

OECD warns that decision to scrap job schemes could lead to surge in unemployment.

When George Osborne's deputy, Danny Alexander, announced the abolition of a series of employment schemes last month there was understandable outrage from voters. David Cameron responded that the coalition would announce its own comprehensive employment scheme in time but we're yet to receive any more detail.

Either way, the OECD, Europe's leading economic think tank, isn't impressed. Here's what it had to say about the decision to axe the Future Jobs Fund, which subsidises job placements for 18-to-24-year-olds, and the Six Month Offer, which offers training to those who've been unemployed for longer than six months:

While the large fiscal deficit makes it essential to focus on cost-effective programmes and target the most disadvantaged groups, labour-market programmes should remain adequately funded. In this context, it may also be of concern that the new Budget ends funding for two crisis measures -- the Future Jobs Fund and the Six Month Offer.

The body added that the measures introduced by Labour had prevented unemployment from rising as fast as in previous recessions:

Considering that GDP fell by 6 per cent, the increase in unemployment in the United Kingdom is smaller than would have been predicted based on historical experience. For example, the unemployment rate rose nearly as sharply in the 1990-91 recession even though GDP fell by less than half as much.

It goes on:

Effective re-employment assistance has prevented an even sharper increase in UK joblessness and should be reinforced even in the current context of fiscal consolidation.

The lesson of the 1980s is that the costs of high unemployment -- increased mental illness, higher crime levels, wasted talent -- are too high for any government to bear. But the report warns that unemployment is set to remain at nearly 8 per cent until the end of 2011. Osborne, who is fond of citing the OECD when its findings agree with him, needs to provide some answers now.

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George Eaton is political editor of the New Statesman.

Ukip's Nigel Farage and Paul Nuttall. Photo: Getty
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Is the general election 2017 the end of Ukip?

Ukip led the way to Brexit, but now the party is on less than 10 per cent in the polls. 

Ukip could be finished. Ukip has only ever had two MPs, but it held an outside influence on politics: without it, we’d probably never have had the EU referendum. But Brexit has turned Ukip into a single-issue party without an issue. Ukip’s sole remaining MP, Douglas Carswell, left the party in March 2017, and told Sky News’ Adam Boulton that there was “no point” to the party anymore. 

Not everyone in Ukip has given up, though: Nigel Farage told Peston on Sunday that Ukip “will survive”, and current leader Paul Nuttall will be contesting a seat this year. But Ukip is standing in fewer constituencies than last time thanks to a shortage of both money and people. Who benefits if Ukip is finished? It’s likely to be the Tories. 

Is Ukip finished? 

What are Ukip's poll ratings?

Ukip’s poll ratings peaked in June 2016 at 16 per cent. Since the leave campaign’s success, that has steadily declined so that Ukip is going into the 2017 general election on 4 per cent, according to the latest polls. If the polls can be trusted, that’s a serious collapse.

Can Ukip get anymore MPs?

In the 2015 general election Ukip contested nearly every seat and got 13 per cent of the vote, making it the third biggest party (although is only returned one MP). Now Ukip is reportedly struggling to find candidates and could stand in as few as 100 seats. Ukip leader Paul Nuttall will stand in Boston and Skegness, but both ex-leader Nigel Farage and donor Arron Banks have ruled themselves out of running this time.

How many members does Ukip have?

Ukip’s membership declined from 45,994 at the 2015 general election to 39,000 in 2016. That’s a worrying sign for any political party, which relies on grassroots memberships to put in the campaigning legwork.

What does Ukip's decline mean for Labour and the Conservatives? 

The rise of Ukip took votes from both the Conservatives and Labour, with a nationalist message that appealed to disaffected voters from both right and left. But the decline of Ukip only seems to be helping the Conservatives. Stephen Bush has written about how in Wales voting Ukip seems to have been a gateway drug for traditional Labour voters who are now backing the mainstream right; so the voters Ukip took from the Conservatives are reverting to the Conservatives, and the ones they took from Labour are transferring to the Conservatives too.

Ukip might be finished as an electoral force, but its influence on the rest of British politics will be felt for many years yet. 

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