Tories will make no gains in Scotland, poll shows

YouGov survey suggests Tories will fail to improve on single Scottish seat.

There's a new Scottish poll from YouGov in the Scotsman this morning which suggests that the Tories will struggle to improve on the solitary seat they gained in 2005.

The poll puts Labour on 37 per cent, down just 2 points since the last election, with the Lib Dems down 1 to 22 per cent, the Scottish National Party up 3 to 21 per cent and the Tories up 1 to just 17 per cent.

If repeated on a uniform swing, the figures would allow Labour to regain Glasgow East from the SNP and Dunfermline West from the Lib Dems. Meanwhile, Nick Clegg's party would gain Edinburgh South and the SNP would take Ochil and South Perthshire from Labour.

Here's a full breakdown:

Labour 39 (+2)
Lib Dems 12 (+1)
SNP 7 (+1)
Conservatives 1 (nc)

Based on the Tories' current poll lead, the minute swing to them in Scotland implies, however, that they're performing disproportionately well in other regions such as the Midlands and the south of England.

All the same, presented with the poll finding by a Scotsman journalist, Cameron replied:

Poll . . . poll shmole. We have got a big one on Thursday. What's the point of worrying about polls now? Everyone has got a chance to vote on Thursday.

That Cameron has been forced to resort to the line "There's only one poll that counts" is sign of diminished confidence in the party. The Tories are neither where they wanted to be, nor where they expected to be.

The weeks that Cameron hoped to spend leading a majority government will now be spent desperately trying to win support from the Democratic Unionist Party and others.

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George Eaton is political editor of the New Statesman.

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Jeremy Corbyn sat down on train he claimed was full, Virgin says

The train company has pushed back against a viral video starring the Labour leader, in which he sat on the floor.

Seats were available on the train where Jeremy Corbyn was filmed sitting on the floor, Virgin Trains has said.

On 16 August, a freelance film-maker who has been following the Labour leader released a video which showed Corbyn talking about the problems of overcrowded trains.

“This is a problem that many passengers face every day, commuters and long-distance travellers. Today this train is completely ram-packed,” he said. Is it fair that I should upgrade my ticket whilst others who might not be able to afford such a luxury should have to sit on the floor? It’s their money I would be spending after all.”

Commentators quickly pointed out that he would not have been able to claim for a first-class upgrade, as expenses rules only permit standard-class travel. Also, campaign expenses cannot be claimed back from the taxpayer. 

Today, Virgin Trains released footage of the Labour leader walking past empty unreserved seats to film his video, which took half an hour, before walking back to take another unreserved seat.

"CCTV footage taken from the train on August 11 shows Mr Corbyn and his team walked past empty, unreserved seats in coach H before walking through the rest of the train to the far end, where his team sat on the floor and started filming.

"The same footage then shows Mr Corbyn returning to coach H and taking a seat there, with the help of the onboard crew, around 45 minutes into the journey and over two hours before the train reached Newcastle.

"Mr Corbyn’s team carried out their filming around 30 minutes into the journey. There were also additional empty seats on the train (the 11am departure from King’s Cross) which appear from CCTV to have been reserved but not taken, so they were also available for other passengers to sit on."

A Virgin spokesperson commented: “We have to take issue with the idea that Mr Corbyn wasn’t able to be seated on the service, as this clearly wasn’t the case.

A spokesman for the Corbyn campaign told BuzzFeed News that the footage was a “lie”, and that Corbyn had given up his seat for a woman to take his place, and that “other people” had also sat in the aisles.

Owen Smith, Corbyn's leadership rival, tried a joke:

But a passenger on the train supported Corbyn's version of events.

Both Virgin Trains and the Corbyn campaign have been contacted for further comment.

UPDATE 17:07

A spokesperson for the Jeremy for Labour campaign commented:

“When Jeremy boarded the train he was unable to find unreserved seats, so he sat with other passengers in the corridor who were also unable to find a seat. 

"Later in the journey, seats became available after a family were upgraded to first class, and Jeremy and the team he was travelling with were offered the seats by a very helpful member of staff.

"Passengers across Britain will have been in similar situations on overcrowded, expensive trains. That is why our policy to bring the trains back into public ownership, as part of a plan to rebuild and transform Britain, is so popular with passengers and rail workers.”

A few testimonies from passengers who had their photos taken with Corbyn on the floor can be found here