It’s Miliband v Miliband

Ed Miliband now certain to run for the leadership.

The Sun reports that Ed Miliband is certain to stand against his brother for the Labour leadership. It looks like the pair have decided that a Granita-style pact would create more problems than it solves.

They are almost certainly right. Much of the angst of the New Labour years could have been avoided if Gordon Brown had simply been beaten by Tony Blair (and possibly John Prescott) in an open and democratic leadership election.

The media will be determined to portray this as a left v right contest, but the reality is far more complex. David Miliband, as Charlie Falconer reminded us on last night's Question Time (where he was joined by our own Mehdi Hasan), does not consider himself as a Blairite.

Many know that David served as head of the No 10 policy unit during the Blair years, far fewer that he left because he was considered insufficiently reformist. His commitment to social justice should not be doubted: in an interview with the NS editor, Jason Cowley, he memorably spoke of the "red thread" that should run through both domestic and foreign policy.

Yet Ed remains a more unambiguously left-wing figure, at ease with the party's history and traditions in a way few others are. He is also exceptionally popular with the grass roots of the party, as evidenced by the creation of an unofficial site urging him to stand. With the thoughtful Jon Cruddas also expected to enter the race shortly, this promises to be a fascinating contest.

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George Eaton is political editor of the New Statesman.

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Will Jeremy Corbyn stand down if Labour loses the general election?

Defeat at the polls might not be the end of Corbyn’s leadership.

The latest polls suggest that Labour is headed for heavy defeat in the June general election. Usually a general election loss would be the trigger for a leader to quit: Michael Foot, Gordon Brown and Ed Miliband all stood down after their first defeat, although Neil Kinnock saw out two losses before resigning in 1992.

It’s possible, if unlikely, that Corbyn could become prime minister. If that prospect doesn’t materialise, however, the question is: will Corbyn follow the majority of his predecessors and resign, or will he hang on in office?

Will Corbyn stand down? The rules

There is no formal process for the parliamentary Labour party to oust its leader, as it discovered in the 2016 leadership challenge. Even after a majority of his MPs had voted no confidence in him, Corbyn stayed on, ultimately winning his second leadership contest after it was decided that the current leader should be automatically included on the ballot.

This year’s conference will vote on to reform the leadership selection process that would make it easier for a left-wing candidate to get on the ballot (nicknamed the “McDonnell amendment” by centrists): Corbyn could be waiting for this motion to pass before he resigns.

Will Corbyn stand down? The membership

Corbyn’s support in the membership is still strong. Without an equally compelling candidate to put before the party, Corbyn’s opponents in the PLP are unlikely to initiate another leadership battle they’re likely to lose.

That said, a general election loss could change that. Polling from March suggests that half of Labour members wanted Corbyn to stand down either immediately or before the general election.

Will Corbyn stand down? The rumours

Sources close to Corbyn have said that he might not stand down, even if he leads Labour to a crushing defeat this June. They mention Kinnock’s survival after the 1987 general election as a precedent (although at the 1987 election, Labour did gain seats).

Will Corbyn stand down? The verdict

Given his struggles to manage his own MPs and the example of other leaders, it would be remarkable if Corbyn did not stand down should Labour lose the general election. However, staying on after a vote of no-confidence in 2016 was also remarkable, and the mooted changes to the leadership election process give him a reason to hold on until September in order to secure a left-wing succession.

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