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RSSFive most likely to exit Cameron’s cabinet
Too early to discuss such things?
By Jon Bernstein Published 14 May 2010 16:31
Perhaps, in this era of "new politics", it's the wrong subject at the wrong time. And with the love-in in the Downing Street garden still fresh in the memory, and a honeymoon that will surely take us into the summer, it will seem churlish to some to dwell on departures, splits and ruptures.
Fortunately, the betting markets don't care for such sentimentality. This is who they think will be first out of the door:
- Vince Cable: 25 per cent
- Nick Clegg: 20 per cent
- Theresa May: 18 per cent
- Chris Huhne: 16.67 per cent
- Lord Strathclyde: 11 per cent
(Odds courtesy of Smarkets, as of 3pm, 14 May)
Theresa May's presence on the list -- sandwiched by three Lib Dems -- has nothing to do with her getting disillusioned by this marriage of convenience. Rather, it's the reality of the role. David Cameron gave her what is known on the terraces as a "hospital pass" when he appointed her to the Home Office.
Between 1997 and 2010, Labour home secretaries lasted barely two years each on average. In fact, during the last parliament, the average stay as was just 15 months.
Even so, the punters have Vince and Nick getting out of there even earlier.
Tags: Vince Cable
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Jon Bernstein is digital director of Progressive Media International, publisher of the New Statesman
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17 comments
lets not do what the tories did lets not see labour decend in to infighting it serves no purpose . yes we made mistakes , we cant change that , lets apologise and move on . who ever the new leader is lets unite behind them and fight the enimys the libcin coalition .its only a small swing we need and labours the biggest party again dont forget that.
It was enouraging to watch Newsnight last night and to see Michael Crick and Gavin Esler tearing into the coalition. They were very impressive in sowing doubt in the minds of those who would support it.
It's obvious that the BBC is leading the opposition to Cameron and Clegg, and I hope the left will get behind the state broadcaster.
I predict that the BBC will be able to destroy the coalition within six months. The new Labour leader should be ready for action.
All the above sound very very sour grapes.
I think the first out will be Ken Clarke.
I imagine the Lib Dems will be loving the attention and the power too much to want to leave.
The only two i see as being potential quitters are Huhne through ideological reasons and maybe Clegg, should he find his ballooning ego too big to manage the number two role.
Good luck to all of them. Lets get behind them for the sake of the country!
I get the feeling that the population are generally speaking getting fed up of being dragged down by negativity.
The Brown years are over, the sun is out and we have blueish skies. Lets rejoice at that!
Seriously, I'm tired of these "sour grapes" or "your just annoyed you lost" comments. The fact remains The New Statesman is a left wing newspaper, i.e. they are not supposed to support the tories because they disagree with their policies and everything they stand for.
No matter how bad Labour have become it is out duty as the centre left to support them and get them back to their former glories, comments like the one of above serve no purpose other then to whine.
I think Aneurin Bevan said it best, "No attempt at ethical or social seduction can eradicate from my heart a deep burning hatred for the Tory Party. So far as I am concerned they are lower than vermin."
Yeah Labour made mistakes, mainly the middle east wars (That Cameron supported and is likely to carry on) but now we have to get them back to the top
Vince Cable is way over-rated anyway and his "knowledge" of economics was shown up as hopelessly hollow during the campaign debates with Andrew Neil.
He is a just an ineffectual ex-Labour councillor posing as a financial guru. Nick Clegg is fed up to the back teeth with him.
What makes you think that Cameron doesn't like Cable's and Huhne's stances on banking and the environment?
Cameron isn't a conservative. I suspect he's a Trojan Horse.
I think Cable's "knowledge" of economics is helped by his BA and Phd in the subject. And that he was a lecturer on the subject. I'm not sure it's possible to call his knowledge into doubt.
I can see Theresa May going first, her woeful record on equality should push her out the door along with the poisoned chalice of the Home Office.
Theresa May will most likely be the first through the door.With more financial difficulty ahead crime will rise.With the economic problems in Greece and very soon Spain and Portugal the UK will receive an influx of more EU economic migrants.
I agree with most of this list apart from Clegg.
The coalition is often seen as being between the two parties. In reality it is as much between Clegg and Cameron.
If this Government lasts five years (doubt it) then Clegg will have a semi-vice presidential role. Due to his position as Lib Dem leader he is in effect unsackable.
The two biggest mistakes the Lib Dems have made is -
1. Clegg has no Department. Clegg may be Deputy PM and unsackable but like the Vice President he is a non-job. With no department he has no powerbase within Government. Something he will come to rue.
2. The Lib Dems have no Great Office of State. The Liberals as part of the deal should have demanded that Clegg or some other Lib Dem be appointed Home Secretary, Foreign Secretary or even Defence Secretary. Osbourne was always going to be Chancellor so that was never going to happen. The jobs the Lib Dems have got are at best middle ranking. The big jobs have all gone to Tories and in time the Lib Dems will be marginalised.
I doubt any Lib Dems will resign in the first year.
Cable may be reshuffled but don't forget that Cable is Deputy Lib Dem leader and will be as difficult to get rid of as Clegg.
Vince might leave, not about competence, but might find odious George too much to cope with. Incidentally his popularity rating must be falling sharply already.
That "Vermin" statement by Nye Bevan was bad.
One of the objects of political effort is to persuade those with differing views of the soundness of one's own.
Calling those whom one seeks to convert "Vermin" isn't especially helpful.
Bevan was speaking in the context of Appeasement and the Conservative's response to the Depression.
The modern Conservative Party pretty much stands for the same things as it did in the 1940's.
The class system, people knowing their place, tax breaks for the rich, the Monarchy, Capitalism and it's related evils.
As to Robert's comments. I don't want Tories to vote Labour and neither did Bevan. I want swing voters to vote Labour as they are under FPTP the people who decide elections.
The day committed Conservatives vote Labour would be an unfortunate day indeed,vermin or not.
On the other hand.The last one out will be Nick Clegg. He has the smell of power in his nostrils and nothing, no party, no activists,no other Lib Dems are going to take it away from him....well except maybe the electorate.
http://redrag1.blogspot.com/2010/05/red-rag-spin-this-one-tomorrow-nick....
red rag clegg is a tory mate , thats were he came from , he never left they infiltrated the lib dems at the top .nick cleggs never stopped being a tory .any way as they say we gotta move on , lock an load there targets all the place to shoot . just so long as we dont do what the cons did in opposition well be alright , we dont need that much of a swing to beat the tories at the next election .
Clegg can't be sacked and won't resign.
If either were to happen the coalition would collapse and there would have to be an new election.
IF I WAS LABOUR LEADER ID BE THINKING TO THE FUTURE , OPEN DIALONG WITH THE GREENS , THEY HAVE PROVEN A STABLE LONG TERM PARTNER FOR LAB IN NZ AND AUS , IN AND OUT OF GOVENMENT. CLEGG SOLD OUT THE LOT PR VOTEING ASK ROY JENKINS WHAT HE THOUGHT OF AV , ITS WORSE THAN FIRST PASSED THE POST . just do the opposite of what the tories did in opposition and all should be ok .38% of libs apose the coalition now , defections will be sure to come .