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Five most likely to exit Cameron’s cabinet

Too early to discuss such things?

Perhaps, in this era of "new politics", it's the wrong subject at the wrong time. And with the love-in in the Downing Street garden still fresh in the memory, and a honeymoon that will surely take us into the summer, it will seem churlish to some to dwell on departures, splits and ruptures.

Fortunately, the betting markets don't care for such sentimentality. This is who they think will be first out of the door:

  1. Vince Cable: 25 per cent
  2. Nick Clegg: 20 per cent
  3. Theresa May: 18 per cent
  4. Chris Huhne: 16.67 per cent
  5. Lord Strathclyde: 11 per cent

(Odds courtesy of Smarkets, as of 3pm, 14 May)

Theresa May's presence on the list -- sandwiched by three Lib Dems -- has nothing to do with her getting disillusioned by this marriage of convenience. Rather, it's the reality of the role. David Cameron gave her what is known on the terraces as a "hospital pass" when he appointed her to the Home Office.

Between 1997 and 2010, Labour home secretaries lasted barely two years each on average. In fact, during the last parliament, the average stay as was just 15 months.

Even so, the punters have Vince and Nick getting out of there even earlier.

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