Tory gay support collapses to nine per cent

Support falls thirty points to nine per cent in wake of Grayling affair and new EU alliance.

One of the early aims of David Cameron's leadership was to alter the perception (and the reality) that the Conservative Party was homophobic.

So presumably he'll be dismayed to learn that, according to a new Pink News poll, gay support for the Tories has plummeted from 39 per cent in June 2009 to just nine per cent today. That's lower than the 17 per cent recorded by Michael Howard in 2005.

Under our electoral system, small swings such as this could hurt the Tories in just the sort of Lib Dem marginals they need to win to secure an overall majority.

Unsurprisingly, a significant number of voters have been put off by Chris Grayling's extraordinary defence of the right of B&B owners to turn away gay couples and by Cameron's subsequent refusal to condemn him.

More recently, the decision of Anastasia Beaumont-Bott, the founder of LGBTory, to defect to Labour and to accuse the Conservatives of an "elaborately executed deception" on gay policy has also damaged the party.

But the slide in gay support can be traced back further, to Cameron's shameful decision to form a new EU alliance with several homophobic Eastern European parties

Elsewhere, the poll shows that the Lib Dems have replaced Labour as the party of choice for gay voters. Support for Nick Clegg's party has increased from 20 per cent in 2005 to 58 per cent today, while support for Labour has dropped from 29 per cent to 21 per cent today.

As for the Tories, it looks like Cameron will have to "detoxify" his party all over again.

 

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George Eaton is political editor of the New Statesman.

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Will Jeremy Corbyn stand down if Labour loses the general election?

Defeat at the polls might not be the end of Corbyn’s leadership.

The latest polls suggest that Labour is headed for heavy defeat in the June general election. Usually a general election loss would be the trigger for a leader to quit: Michael Foot, Gordon Brown and Ed Miliband all stood down after their first defeat, although Neil Kinnock saw out two losses before resigning in 1992.

It’s possible, if unlikely, that Corbyn could become prime minister. If that prospect doesn’t materialise, however, the question is: will Corbyn follow the majority of his predecessors and resign, or will he hang on in office?

Will Corbyn stand down? The rules

There is no formal process for the parliamentary Labour party to oust its leader, as it discovered in the 2016 leadership challenge. Even after a majority of his MPs had voted no confidence in him, Corbyn stayed on, ultimately winning his second leadership contest after it was decided that the current leader should be automatically included on the ballot.

This year’s conference will vote on to reform the leadership selection process that would make it easier for a left-wing candidate to get on the ballot (nicknamed the “McDonnell amendment” by centrists): Corbyn could be waiting for this motion to pass before he resigns.

Will Corbyn stand down? The membership

Corbyn’s support in the membership is still strong. Without an equally compelling candidate to put before the party, Corbyn’s opponents in the PLP are unlikely to initiate another leadership battle they’re likely to lose.

That said, a general election loss could change that. Polling from March suggests that half of Labour members wanted Corbyn to stand down either immediately or before the general election.

Will Corbyn stand down? The rumours

Sources close to Corbyn have said that he might not stand down, even if he leads Labour to a crushing defeat this June. They mention Kinnock’s survival after the 1987 general election as a precedent (although at the 1987 election, Labour did gain seats).

Will Corbyn stand down? The verdict

Given his struggles to manage his own MPs and the example of other leaders, it would be remarkable if Corbyn did not stand down should Labour lose the general election. However, staying on after a vote of no-confidence in 2016 was also remarkable, and the mooted changes to the leadership election process give him a reason to hold on until September in order to secure a left-wing succession.

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