The Staggers

The New Statesman’s rolling politics blog

Tories struggling in Lib Dem marginals

New figures suggest Lib Dems will hold on to almost all of the seats the Tories need to win.

By George Eaton Published 21 April 2010 10:58

The headline figures from the latest opinion polls may be fascinating but they are a poor guide to the likely outcome of the election. For a better understanding, we need to look at what is happening in the key Lib Dem-Tory marginals.

Thankfully, PoliticalBetting's Mike Smithson has published a subset of data from the latest Angus Reid poll which goes some way to enabling this. The figures show that in the 62 seats currently held by Nick Clegg's party, the Lib Dems are on 44 per cent, the Tories on 23 per cent and Labour on 19 per cent.

A lead of this size suggests, as Smithson writes, that the Lib Dems will keep almost all of the seats they won in 2005. This finding correlates with one from last week's Crosby/Textor poll for the Telegraph (carried out before Cleggmania) which found that that the Conservatives would fail to win any of the 20 key Lib Dem-Tory marginals.

It's all bad news for David Cameron. Of the 117 seats his party needs to gain for a majority of one, 23 are currently held by the Lib Dems.

The performance of Clegg's party is all the more impressive given the huge funding disadvantage suffered by the Lib Dems. New figures published by the Electoral Commission show that the Tories received £1.46m in donations in the first week of the campaign, with Labour receiving nearly £800,000 and the Lib Dems just £20,000.

It looks as if fears that Lord Ashcroft's millions would scoop up the marginals for the Tories were overstated.

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Tags: Election 2010 Nick Clegg Lord Ashcroft David Cameron

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12 comments

Wed, 2010-04-21 11:24 — Richard Blogger (not verified)

More interesting is the effect of Cleggomania on the LD-Cons marginals currently held by the Conservatives.

Incidentally the LD surge started from the beginning of March. In the national polls as the polls tightened, the LD increase was greater than the Cons decrease, and Lab have flatlined for the last month. Cleggomania has resulted in a huge Tory dip in the national polls. Probably not sustainable, but it is certainly worrying "President" Cameron.

Wed, 2010-04-21 11:26 — oldrightie (not verified)

It will be interesting to see how LibDem voters react to finding out the truth of their policies.

Fri, 2010-04-23 22:01 — jason (not verified)

Nick can do it, finish of what labour started. wreking this once great country. yes lets get rid of are nukes, and give an amnesty to a million criminals, illigal immigrants. yes thats what they are because they have broken the law

Fri, 2010-04-23 22:08 — james (not verified)

Nick said last night he would free the illigal imigrants so they could pay tax, pay tax on what the iligal jobs they work in.

Nick said he will lock up all the criminals, funny how he asked David Cameran how does he propose to find all the illigal imigrants, well Nick maybe you could tell me how you propose to find all those criminals? You are a joke.

Wed, 2010-04-21 12:52 — Jab (not verified)

oldrightie, I'm not sure what you mean considering most of us (Lib Dem supporters) have read the manifestos and have chosen who to vote for based on... Policies.

At least most of us on the Facebook group anyway; http://www.facebook.com/group.php?gid=113749985304255&ref=ts#!/group.php?gid=113749985304255

Wed, 2010-04-21 12:54 — Jake (not verified)

Oldrightie are you suggesting that LibDem voters haven't read their own manifesto? I can assure you most of them have.
People who are converting to LibDem are those that were stuck in the family traditions and habit of voting for one party consistently, but after reading what the LibDems have to offer are realising that it's exactly what Britain needs.
I agree with Nick, and so does everybody else. For his policies, not for his posters.

Wed, 2010-04-21 12:55 — Barney (not verified)

oldrightie, would you like some more straws to clutch at?

It's the LibDem policies which are underpinning this surge in support.

Wed, 2010-04-21 12:55 — Chris (not verified)

Lib Dems knows the truth about their policies, because unlike other parties, the membership chose them.

Wed, 2010-04-21 12:57 — Chris (not verified)

I agree with Nick and so does my wife.

Thu, 2010-04-29 14:57 — P Baker (not verified)

After the last TV debate, YouGov asked: “How would you vote on May 6 if you thought the Liberal Democrats had a significant chance of winning the election”. The responses: Lib Dem 49%, Conservative 25%, Labour 19%. If this actually happened there would be 548 Lib Dem MPs, 41 Labour MPs and just 25 Tories.

The message here seems to be, vote for what you really want to happen, and it will.