So it looks like Gordon Brown will have first sight of those key growth figures before Thursday’s leaders’ debate. The chair of the UK Statistics Authority has criticised the decision as “unacceptable” on the basis that such courtesy won’t be extended to David Cameron and Nick Clegg.
The debate may be on foreign affairs, rather than the economy, but you can be sure Brown will find a way to work the recovery in.
At one point it was thought that the figures would show Britain has fallen back into recession (one of the old arguments for a March election) but most now expect the economy to have grown by at least 0.4 per cent in the first quarter of this year.
Growth of around this level should suit Brown just fine. Much lower and economic confidence will be damaged, much higher and his argument that it’s too early to cut spending won’t seem as strong.
Growth of 0.4 per cent in the final quarter of 2009 (revised upwards from 0.1 per cent) turned out to be a blessing for Brown. It boosted his call for fiscal stimulus to be maintained and led to the Tories’ wobble over “swingeing cuts”.
Brown, a keen follower of history, will recall that in 1945 voters elected Clement Attlee instead of Winston Churchill despite the latter’s wartime feats. Similarly, they may conclude that the PM, having seen Britain through the economic storm, has no useful role left to play. It is for this reason that Brown doesn’t want the recovery to look secure just yet.
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