Labour on course to win election (according to Twitter)

Study attempts to use Twitter to predict the election result.

The latest polls may show the Tories' lead over Labour increasing, but there's better news for Gordon Brown in a new report by Tweetminster. The study, which attempts to predict the result of the election by tracking the most mentioned candidates and constituencies on Twitter, suggests that Labour is on course to win by a majority of 14 seats.

You may dismiss the study as hopelessly unreliable (an earlier report found that Twitter users were disproportionately liberal) but that's not really the point.

Tweetminster isn't attempting to put YouGov et al out of a job. Rather, it is investigating what correlation (if any) exists between word-of-mouth on Twitter and the election result. Whatever the relationship between the two, we will learn more about the influence of new media on the world of politics.

A similar study in Japan during last year's general election found that in about 90 per cent of constituencies the most mentioned candidate on Twitter won the seat. But that's still a 10 per cent margin of error, large enough to make the difference between a hung parliament and a healthy Tory majority.

Tweetminster's analysis of 376 British seats, based on two million tweets, suggests the following result:

Labour: 35%
Conservatives: 34%
Liberal Democrats: 22%
Others: 9%

The study also found that support for the Scottish National Party is declining. and that the Greens are performing particularly well in Brighton (where their leader, Caroline Lucas, is likely to win) and Norwich South (where the deputy leader, Adrian Ramsay, is expected to run Charles Clarke close).

It also suggests that the Lib Dems are generating more support in the key south-west marginals that David Cameron needs to win to secure an overall majority.

With so much talk about this being the first "internet election", I think it'll be worth watching to see how close Tweetminster gets to the real result.

Follow the New Statesman team on Twitter.

George Eaton is political editor of the New Statesman.

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Jeremy Corbyn sat down on train he claimed was full, Virgin says

The train company has pushed back against a viral video starring the Labour leader, in which he sat on the floor.

Seats were available on the train where Jeremy Corbyn was filmed sitting on the floor, Virgin Trains has said.

On 16 August, a freelance film-maker who has been following the Labour leader released a video which showed Corbyn talking about the problems of overcrowded trains.

“This is a problem that many passengers face every day, commuters and long-distance travellers. Today this train is completely ram-packed,” he said. Is it fair that I should upgrade my ticket whilst others who might not be able to afford such a luxury should have to sit on the floor? It’s their money I would be spending after all.”

Commentators quickly pointed out that he would not have been able to claim for a first-class upgrade, as expenses rules only permit standard-class travel. Also, campaign expenses cannot be claimed back from the taxpayer. 

Today, Virgin Trains released footage of the Labour leader walking past empty unreserved seats to film his video, which took half an hour, before walking back to take another unreserved seat.

"CCTV footage taken from the train on August 11 shows Mr Corbyn and his team walked past empty, unreserved seats in coach H before walking through the rest of the train to the far end, where his team sat on the floor and started filming.

"The same footage then shows Mr Corbyn returning to coach H and taking a seat there, with the help of the onboard crew, around 45 minutes into the journey and over two hours before the train reached Newcastle.

"Mr Corbyn’s team carried out their filming around 30 minutes into the journey. There were also additional empty seats on the train (the 11am departure from King’s Cross) which appear from CCTV to have been reserved but not taken, so they were also available for other passengers to sit on."

A Virgin spokesperson commented: “We have to take issue with the idea that Mr Corbyn wasn’t able to be seated on the service, as this clearly wasn’t the case.

A spokesman for the Corbyn campaign told BuzzFeed News that the footage was a “lie”, and that Corbyn had given up his seat for a woman to take his place, and that “other people” had also sat in the aisles.

Owen Smith, Corbyn's leadership rival, tried a joke:

But a passenger on the train supported Corbyn's version of events.

Both Virgin Trains and the Corbyn campaign have been contacted for further comment.

UPDATE 17:07

A spokesperson for the Jeremy for Labour campaign commented:

“When Jeremy boarded the train he was unable to find unreserved seats, so he sat with other passengers in the corridor who were also unable to find a seat. 

"Later in the journey, seats became available after a family were upgraded to first class, and Jeremy and the team he was travelling with were offered the seats by a very helpful member of staff.

"Passengers across Britain will have been in similar situations on overcrowded, expensive trains. That is why our policy to bring the trains back into public ownership, as part of a plan to rebuild and transform Britain, is so popular with passengers and rail workers.”

A few testimonies from passengers who had their photos taken with Corbyn on the floor can be found here