The Tories hit back on Mumsnet

Conservatives accuse Labour of lying over tax credits, but who's right?

After Labour used Mumsnet to attack the Conservatives' plans to reduce tax credits, the Tories have hit back with an advert of their own.

mumsnet1

The Labour ad, you may remember, claimed that the Tories would abolish tax credits for all families with incomes over £31,000, rather than £50,000. The Tory ad rejects this claim as "complete spin" and, in a related blog post, the shadow work and pensions secretary, Theresa May, goes further and describes it as a "lie".

spinthis

So who's right?

Labour claimed that figures from the Institute for Fiscal Studies show that lowering the threshold to £50,000 would raise only £45m and not, as George Osborne claims, £400m. To raise that sum, the shadow chancellor would have to lower the threshold to £31,000, said Liam Byrne, Chief Secretary to the Treasury.

Here's what the IFS said:

Without access to HMRC's data, it is not possible for us to say precisely how much money would be raised by the Conservative Party's proposal having allowed for incomplete take-up, but it can be stated confidently that it would be less than £0.4 billion (because that would require lowering the threshold to £31,000), but more than £45 million (which is what would be raised if the threshold at £50,000 were replaced by a cliff-edge, as this is the total amount to which families with incomes exceeding £50,000 are entitled).

IFS Green Budget 2010, Page 168

So the Tories are wrong to claim that their plan would raise £400m but Labour is equally wrong to claim it would raise just £45m. But after their disingenuous poster on Labour's "death tax" earlier this week, the Tories aren't really in a position to cry foul.

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George Eaton is political editor of the New Statesman.

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Theresa May is paying the price for mismanaging Boris Johnson

The Foreign Secretary's bruised ego may end up destroying Theresa May. 

And to think that Theresa May scheduled her big speech for this Friday to make sure that Conservative party conference wouldn’t be dominated by the matter of Brexit. Now, thanks to Boris Johnson, it won’t just be her conference, but Labour’s, which is overshadowed by Brexit in general and Tory in-fighting in particular. (One imagines that the Labour leadership will find a way to cope somehow.)

May is paying the price for mismanaging Johnson during her period of political hegemony after she became leader. After he was betrayed by Michael Gove and lacking any particular faction in the parliamentary party, she brought him back from the brink of political death by making him Foreign Secretary, but also used her strength and his weakness to shrink his empire.

The Foreign Office had its responsibility for negotiating Brexit hived off to the newly-created Department for Exiting the European Union (Dexeu) and for navigating post-Brexit trade deals to the Department of International Trade. Johnson was given control of one of the great offices of state, but with no responsibility at all for the greatest foreign policy challenge since the Second World War.

Adding to his discomfort, the new Foreign Secretary was regularly the subject of jokes from the Prime Minister and cabinet colleagues. May likened him to a dog that had to be put down. Philip Hammond quipped about him during his joke-fuelled 2017 Budget. All of which gave Johnson’s allies the impression that Johnson-hunting was a licensed sport as far as Downing Street was concerned. He was then shut out of the election campaign and has continued to be a marginalised figure even as the disappointing election result forced May to involve the wider cabinet in policymaking.

His sense of exclusion from the discussions around May’s Florence speech only added to his sense of isolation. May forgot that if you aren’t going to kill, don’t wound: now, thanks to her lost majority, she can’t afford to put any of the Brexiteers out in the cold, and Johnson is once again where he wants to be: centre-stage. 

Stephen Bush is special correspondent at the New Statesman. His daily briefing, Morning Call, provides a quick and essential guide to domestic and global politics.