Does negative campaigning work?

Labour and the Tories shouldn't give up on the pointed attacks just yet.

In today's Times, Daniel Finkelstein urges the Tories to avoid the temptation to resort to negative campaigning, arguing that it is neither ethical nor effective. Finkelstein's words reflect the intense debate taking place at CCHQ over campaign strategy, one that has pitted David Cameron's director of strategy, Steve Hilton, against his media Rottweiler, Andy Coulson.

Coulson (described by one Tory MP as "out of control") was responsible for the party's ill-fated tombstone poster attacking Labour's (non-existent) "death tax". By contrast, Hilton, who is determined to ensure that the Tories run a postive campaign, is thought to be behind this week's upbeat "I've never voted Tory before . . ." series.

Finkelstein's argument against negative campaigning is twofold. First, he argues that negative attacks risk making Cameron -- whose image is the party's "most important asset" -- seem "petty, partisan and mean-spirited". Second, he claims that there is no point in the Tories running a negative campaign because the voters have already made up their mind about Gordon Brown.

I'm not convinced on either count. First, it is perfectly possible for parties to run negative campaigns at a distance from their leader. Labour's recent two-faced Cameron poster -- which avoided all mention of Gordon Brown -- is a good example. Part of the Tories' problem is that they are still too dependent on Cameron's political skills. They lack an attack dog to rival Peter Mandelson.

Second, although most voters aren't going to change their minds at this stage, Finkelstein should remember that, under our electoral system, small swings in public opinion can have a huge effect.

I'd also question his positive/negative dichotomy. Rather, there is effective campaigning (postive and negative) and ineffective campaigning. The problem with the tombstone poster wasn't that it was negative, but that it was disingenuous. It failed to resonate because it attacked a policy that Labour hadn't actually adopted.

As a rule, negative campaigning will backfire if it's insincere or hypocritical. Michael Howard's attempt to brand Tony Blair a "liar" at the 2005 election failed because it made the Tories' full-throated support for the Iraq war in 2003 look naive. By contrast, Labour's 2001 poster morphing William Hague's face with an image of Margaret Thatcher's hair (a copy of which Alastair Campbell keeps on his wall) worked well, because it reflected Hague's political priorities accurately.

The best argument against negative attacks is that they can damage the political system at large and encourage apathy. But if the Tories want to be sure of victory they'd be wise not to rule out a return to negative campaigning.

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George Eaton is political editor of the New Statesman.

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Theresa May’s stage-managed election campaign keeps the public at bay

Jeremy Corbyn’s approach may be chaotic, but at least it’s more authentic.

The worst part about running an election campaign for a politician? Having to meet the general public. Those ordinary folk can be a tricky lot, with their lack of regard for being on-message, and their pesky real-life concerns.

But it looks like Theresa May has decided to avoid this inconvenience altogether during this snap general election campaign, as it turns out her visit to Leeds last night was so stage-managed that she barely had to face the public.

Accusations have been whizzing around online that at a campaign event at the Shine building in Leeds, the Prime Minister spoke to a room full of guests invited by the party, rather than local people or people who work in the building’s office space.

The Telegraph’s Chris Hope tweeted a picture of the room in which May was addressing her audience yesterday evening a little before 7pm. He pointed out that, being in Leeds, she was in “Labour territory”:

But a few locals who spied this picture online claimed that the audience did not look like who you’d expect to see congregated at Shine – a grade II-listed Victorian school that has been renovated into a community project housing office space and meeting rooms.

“Ask why she didn’t meet any of the people at the business who work in that beautiful building. Everyone there was an invite-only Tory,” tweeted Rik Kendell, a Leeds-based developer and designer who says he works in the Shine building. “She didn’t arrive until we’d all left for the day. Everyone in the building past 6pm was invite-only . . . They seemed to seek out the most clinical corner for their PR photos. Such a beautiful building to work in.”

Other tweeters also found the snapshot jarring:

Shine’s founders have pointed out that they didn’t host or invite Theresa May – rather the party hired out the space for a private event: “All visitors pay for meeting space in Shine and we do not seek out, bid for, or otherwise host any political parties,” wrote managing director Dawn O'Keefe. The guestlist was not down to Shine, but to the Tory party.

The audience consisted of journalists and around 150 Tory activists, according to the Guardian. This was instead of employees from the 16 offices housed in the building. I have asked the Conservative Party for clarification of who was in the audience and whether it was invite-only and am awaiting its response.

Jeremy Corbyn accused May of “hiding from the public”, and local Labour MP Richard Burgon commented that, “like a medieval monarch, she simply briefly relocated her travelling court of admirers to town and then moved on without so much as a nod to the people she considers to be her lowly subjects”.

But it doesn’t look like the Tories’ painstaking stage-management is a fool-proof plan. Having uniform audiences of the party faithful on the campaign trail seems to be confusing the Prime Minister somewhat. During a visit to a (rather sparsely populated) factory in Clay Cross, Derbyshire, yesterday, she appeared to forget where exactly on the campaign trail she was:

The management of Corbyn’s campaign has also resulted in gaffes – but for opposite reasons. A slightly more chaotic approach has led to him facing the wrong way, with his back to the cameras.

Corbyn’s blunder is born out of his instinct to address the crowd rather than the cameras – May’s problem is the other way round. Both, however, seem far more comfortable talking to the party faithful, even if they are venturing out of safe seat territory.

Anoosh Chakelian is senior writer at the New Statesman.

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