Who passes the Clegg test?

How many of Nick Clegg's four demands do Labour and Tories meet?

So Vince Cable won't be the next chancellor after all. Today's Guardian reports that the Liberal Democrats are planning to rule out forming a coalition government with either the Conservatives or Labour in the event of a hung parliament. But they will be prepared to offer parliamentary support to any party that accepts their "shopping list" of four demands.

So who, as things stand, would pass the Clegg test?

1. "Investing extra funds in education through a pupil premium for disadvantaged children."

Conservatives: The Tories have already promised to introduce a pupil premium, with extra funding for schools that take children from the poorest homes. But the party has yet to say anything about how much it would spend, or where the money would come from.

The Lib Dems have said that the policy would cost £2.5bn a year, with the average school receiving roughly £2,500 extra for every disadvantaged child on its roll.

Labour: Ed Balls opposes a pupil premium, arguing that it would not guarantee that pupils with disadvantages or extra needs actually get the support that they need.

Verdict: A point to the Tories. None for Labour.

2. "Tax reform, taking four million out of tax and raising taxes on the rich by requiring capital gains and income to be taxed at the same rate."

Conservatives: A number of Tories are impressed by Nick Clegg's plan to raise the income-tax threshold to £10,000, but David Cameron has yet to poach the idea. Instead, he plans to focus on cutting inheritance tax and recognising marriage in the tax system. In addition, George Osborne has pledged to reduce corporation tax from 30 per cent to 27 per cent. The Tories have no plans to raise capital gains tax (CGT).

Labour: No plans to cut income tax, but Alistair Darling is said to be looking at raising CGT in the Budget to stop the wealthy exploiting a tax loophole by declaring income as capital gains. This would please the Lib Dems, who could claim to have led the agenda.

Verdict: In anticipation of a rise in capital gains tax, Labour wins half a point.

3. "Rebalancing of the economy to put less emphasis on centralised banking and more on a new, greener economy."

Conservatives: Osborne is sympathetic to calls to split investment and retail banking but has stopped short of calling for a complete separation. Cameron has promised a "localist green revolution" with companies such as Tesco and Marks & Spencer helping to make homes more energy-efficient. But will his backbenchers stand in the way? A ConservativeHome/ConservativeIntelligence survey revealed that reducing Britain's carbon footprint was the lowest priority for Tory candidates.

Labour: The government has so far refused to separate retail from investment banking and is unlikely to change its position. On the "green economy", Labour has promised to create a more than a million new green jobs and to cut UK greenhouse-gas emissions by 34 per cent by 2020.

Verdict: Half a point to the Tories on banking and half a point to Labour on the green economy.

4. "Political reforms, including changes to the voting system and a democratically elected Lords, that go further than proposed by Labour."

Conservatives: The Tories are opposed to any electoral reform and support the current first-past-the-post system. Cameron opposes proportional representation on the grounds that it hands power to the "political elites".

The Tory leader has said he supports a largely elected second chamber but is reluctant to challenge his own peers on the issue, as they are opposed to reform. In private, Cameron has described Lords reform as a "third-term issue".

Labour: Supports the replacement of first-past-the-post with the Alternative Vote and has passed legislation to ensure a referendum will be held. The Lib Dems support the move as a "step in the right direction", but are disappointed that Labour did not opt for a proportional system.

The government continues to favour a predominantly elected Lords. However, Jack Straw has warned campaigners that they will have to wait more than decade before this is achieved.

Verdict: Half a point to Labour.

Final score: Conservatives: 1½ out of 4

Labour: 1½ out of 4

Follow the New Statesman team on Twitter.

George Eaton is political editor of the New Statesman.

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What Donald Trump could learn from Ronald Reagan

Reagan’s candidacy was built on more than his celebrity. Trump not only lacks experience as an elected official, he isn’t part of any organised political movement.

“No one remembers who came in second.” That wisdom, frequently dispensed by the US presidential candidate Donald Trump, came back to haunt him this week. Trump’s loss in the Iowa Republican caucuses to the Texas senator Ted Cruz, barely beating Senator Marco Rubio of Florida for second place, was the first crack in a campaign that has defied all expectations.

It has been a campaign built on Trump’s celebrity. Over the past eight months, his broad name recognition, larger-than-life personality and media savvy have produced a theatrical candidacy that has transfixed even those he repels. The question now is whether that celebrity will be enough – whether a man so obsessed with being “Number One” can bounce back from defeat.

Iowa isn’t everything, after all. It didn’t back the eventual Republican nominee in 2008 or 2012. Nor, for that matter, in 1980, when another “celebrity” candidate was in the mix. That was the year Iowa picked George H W Bush over Ronald Reagan – the former actor whom seasoned journalists dismissed as much for his right-wing views as for his “B-movie” repertoire. But Reagan regrouped, romped to victory in the New Hampshire primary and rode a wave of popular support all the way to the White House.

Trump might hope to replicate that success and has made a point of pushing the Reagan analogy more generally. Yet it is a comparison that exposes Trump’s weaknesses and his strengths.

Both men were once Democrats who came later in life to the Republican Party, projecting toughness, certainty and unabashed patriotism. Trump has even adopted Reagan’s 1980 campaign promise to “make America great again”. Like Reagan, he has shown he can appeal to evangelicals despite question marks over his religious conviction and divorces. In his ability to deflect criticism, too, Trump has shown himself as adept as Reagan – if by defiance rather than by charm – and redefined what it means to be “Teflon” in the age of Twitter.

That defiance, however, points to a huge difference in tone between Reagan’s candidacy and Trump’s. Reagan’s vision was a positive, optimistic one, even as he castigated “big government” and the perceived decline of US power. Reagan’s America was meant to be “a city upon a hill” offering a shining example of liberty to the world – in rhetoric at least. Trump’s vision is of an America closed off from the world. His rhetoric invokes fear as often as it does freedom.

On a personal level, Reagan avoided the vituperative attacks that have been the hallmark of Trump’s campaign, even as he took on the then“establishment” of the Republican Party – a moderate, urban, east coast elite. In his first run for the nomination, in 1976, Reagan even challenged an incumbent Republican president, Gerald Ford, and came close to defeating him. But he mounted the challenge on policy grounds, advocating the so-called “Eleventh Commandment”: “Thou shalt not speak ill of any fellow Republican.” Trump, as the TV debates between the Republican presidential candidates made clear, does not subscribe to the same precept.

More importantly, Reagan in 1976 and 1980 was the leader of a resurgent conservative movement, with deep wells of political experience. He had been president of the Screen Actors Guild in the late 1940s, waging a campaign to root out communist infiltrators. He had gone on to work for General Electric in the 1950s as a TV pitchman and after-dinner speaker, honing a business message that resonated beyond the “rubber chicken circuit”.

In 1964 he grabbed headlines with a televised speech on behalf of the Republican presidential candidate, Barry Goldwater – a bright spot in Goldwater’s otherwise ignominious campaign. Two years later he was elected governor of California – serving for eight years as chief executive of the nation’s most populous state. He built a conservative record on welfare reform, law and order, and business regulation that he pushed on to the federal agenda when he ran for president.

All this is to say that Reagan’s candidacy was built on more than his celebrity. By contrast, Trump not only lacks experience as an elected official, he isn’t part of any organised political movement – which enhanced his “outsider” status, perhaps, but not his ground game. So far, he has run on opportunism, tapping in to popular frustration, channelled through a media megaphone.

In Iowa, this wasn’t enough. To win the nomination he will have to do much more to build his organisation. He will be hoping that in the primaries to come, voters do remember who came in second. 

This article first appeared in the 05 February 2015 issue of the New Statesman, Putin's war