Nobel Prize-winning economist attacks Tory spending plans

Joseph Stiglitz tells the NS that Cameron and Osborne are "scaremongering".

In a forthcoming interview with Jonathan Derbyshire and Mehdi Hasan of the New Statesman, the Nobel Prize-winning US economist Joseph Stiglitz says that he is "incredulous" at the Conservatives' plans to cut spending. He describes Tory economic policy as "Hooverite" and dismisses as "crazy" and "fear-mongering" the claim that Britain is at risk of defaulting on its debts.

His response to David Cameron's and George Osborne's plans to cut spending: "Incredulous . . . We [Keynesians] had a victory for a year and then back come the Hooverites."

On Conservative claims that Britain is in danger of a Greek-style debt crisis and risks losing its AAA credit rating: "I think it's fear-mongering and I think the notion that the rating agencies, which did such a terrible job over rating all these products -- that we should show deference to their judgement of good economic policy seems outrageous."

On the suggestion, put about by George Osborne, among others, that Britain is at risk of default: "I say you're crazy -- economically you clearly have the capacity to pay. The debt situation has been worse in other countries at other times. This is all scaremongering, perhaps linked to politics, perhaps rigged to an economic agenda, but it's out of touch with reality. One of the advantages that you have is that you have your own central bank that can buy some of these bonds to stabilise their price."

On what will happen to unemployment if the Tories expand monetary policy: "I don't think there is much scope for monetary expansion . . . without engaging in new risks for the economy . . . So under the current framework it would almost certainly lead to higher unemployment."

On Gordon Brown: "I think he is . . . genuinely committed to broad social goals -- climate change, developing countries, fixing globalisation."

On whether Brown would make a good future head of the IMF or World Bank once he leaves Downing Street: "Yes. These are issues that he cares about passionately and that he understands and is very engaged in. He really did play a big role in reshaping the G20."

(Read Paul Mason's review for the NS of Stiglitz's new book, Freefall, here.)

Jonathan Derbyshire is Managing Editor of Prospect. He was formerly Culture Editor of the New Statesman.

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What is the EU customs union and will Brexit make us leave?

International trade secretary Liam Fox's job makes more sense if we leave the customs union. 

Brexiteers and Remoaners alike have spent the winter months talking of leaving the "customs union", and how this should be weighed up against the benefits of controlling immigration. But what does it actually mean, and how is it different from the EU single market?

Imagine a medieval town, with a busy marketplace where traders are buying and selling wares. Now imagine that the town is also protected by a city wall, with guards ready to slap charges on any outside traders who want to come in. That's how the customs union works.  

In essence, a customs union is an agreement between countries not to impose tariffs on imports from within the club, and at the same time impose common tariffs on goods coming in from outsiders. In other words, the countries decide to trade collectively with each other, and bargain collectively with everyone else. 

The EU isn't the only customs union, or even the first in Europe. In the 19th century, German-speaking states organised the Zollverein, or German Customs Union, which in turn paved the way for the unification of Germany. Other customs unions today include the Eurasian Economic Union of central Asian states and Russia. The EU also has a customs union with Turkey.

What is special about the EU customs union is the level of co-operation, with member states sharing commercial policies, and the size. So how would leaving it affect the UK post-Brexit?

The EU customs union in practice

The EU, acting on behalf of the UK and other member states, has negotiated trade deals with countries around the world which take years to complete. The EU is still mired in talks to try to pull off the controversial Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP) with the US, and a similar EU-Japan trade deal. These two deals alone would cover a third of all EU trade.

The point of these deals is to make it easier for the EU's exporters to sell abroad, keep imports relatively cheap and at the same time protect the member states' own businesses and consumers as much as possible. 

The rules of the customs union require member states to let the EU negotiate on their behalf, rather than trying to cut their own deals. In theory, if the UK walks away from the customs union, we walk away from all these trade deals, but we also get a chance to strike our own. 

What are the UK's options?

The UK could perhaps come to an agreement with the EU where it continues to remain inside the customs union. But some analysts believe that door has already shut. 

One of Theresa May’s first acts as Prime Minister was to appoint Liam Fox, the Brexiteer, as the secretary of state for international trade. Why would she appoint him, so the logic goes, if there were no international trade deals to talk about? And Fox can only do this if the UK is outside the customs union. 

(Conversely, former Lib Dem leader Nick Clegg argues May will realise the customs union is too valuable and Fox will be gone within two years).

Fox has himself said the UK should leave the customs union but later seemed to backtrack, saying it is "important to have continuity in trade".

If the UK does leave the customs union, it will have the freedom to negotiate, but will it fare better or worse than the EU bloc?

On the one hand, the UK, as a single voice, can make speedy decisions, whereas the EU has a lengthy consultative process (the Belgian region of Wallonia recently blocked the entire EU-Canada trade deal). Incoming US President Donald Trump has already said he will try to come to a deal quickly

On the other, the UK economy is far smaller, and trade negotiators may discover they have far less leverage acting alone. 

Unintended consequences

There is also the question of the UK’s membership of the World Trade Organisation, which is currently governed by its membership of the customs union. According to the Institute for Government: “Many countries will want to be clear about the UK’s membership of the WTO before they open negotiations.”

And then there is the question of policing trade outside of the customs union. For example, if it was significantly cheaper to import goods from China into Ireland, a customs union member, than Northern Ireland, a smuggling network might emerge.

 

Julia Rampen is the editor of The Staggers, The New Statesman's online rolling politics blog. She was previously deputy editor at Mirror Money Online and has worked as a financial journalist for several trade magazines.