An April election could be back on the cards

It is possible, but unlikely, that Gordon Brown will call a snap election.

Could we still be in line for an April election? Speculation rolls on.

An ICM poll for the Sunday Telegraph today showed the Conservatives on 39 per cent (down 1 point), Labour on 30 per cent, and the Liberal Democrats up 2 to 20 per cent. This is the first ICM poll to show the Tories on less than 40 per cent since last June. Continuing the recurrent theme of recent polls, if these results were repeated at the general election, they would result in a hung parliament.

It's heartening for Labour. In an interview with the Observer, Gordon Brown appeared buoyed by his recent success in Northern Ireland, the UK's emergence from recession (just about) and signs of Tory inconsistency on policy. "I'm not complacent," he said, using a word generally reserved for the obvious front-runner. "But Labour can still win it. I'm absolutely sure of that."

So, it's possible that Labour could attempt to capitalise on this feeling that the political tide is turning, and wrong-foot the Tories by calling the general election a couple of weeks earlier than the expected date, 6 May. Both the Telegraph and the Mirror report that this is what Labour strategists are advising Brown to do.

There is a strong case for Labour to call the election in mid-April. It would bypass the potentially problematic growth figures, released at the end of April, which could show Britain falling back into recession. The Tories are wobbling on economic policy, and, at the moment, Brown can still claim to have led the country out of recession.

But lest we forget, the improvement in the polls for Labour that everyone is so keen to shout about gives them, at best, a hung parliament, and nothing approaching an outright majority. If Brown genuinely believes that Labour can still win it -- and his self-belief is notoriously unshakeable -- it seems more likely that he will want to hang on in there and narrow the lead further, rather than take rash action.

Follow the New Statesman team on Twitter.

Samira Shackle is a freelance journalist, who tweets @samirashackle. She was formerly a staff writer for the New Statesman.

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The Women's March against Trump matters – but only if we keep fighting

We won’t win the battle for progressive ideas if we don’t battle in the first place.

Arron Banks, UKIP-funder, Brexit cheerleader and Gibraltar-based insurance salesman, took time out from Trump's inauguration to tweet me about my role in tomorrow's Women’s March Conservative values are in the ascendancy worldwide. Thankfully your values are finished. . . good”.

Just what about the idea of women and men marching for human rights causes such ill will? The sense it is somehow cheeky to say we will champion equality whoever is in office in America or around the world. After all, if progressives like me have lost the battle of ideas, what difference does it make whether we are marching, holding meetings or just moaning on the internet?

The only anti-democratic perspective is to argue that when someone has lost the argument they have to stop making one. When political parties lose elections they reflect, they listen, they learn but if they stand for something, they don’t disband. The same is true, now, for the broader context. We should not dismiss the necessity to learn, to listen, to reflect on the rise of Trump – or indeed reflect on the rise of the right in the UK  but reject the idea that we have to take a vow of silence if we want to win power again.

To march is not to ignore the challenges progressives face. It is to start to ask what are we prepared to do about it.

Historically, conservatives have had no such qualms about regrouping and remaining steadfast in the confidence they have something worth saying. In contrast, the left has always been good at absolving itself of the need to renew.

We spend our time seeking the perfect candidates, the perfect policy, the perfect campaign, as a precondition for action. It justifies doing nothing except sitting on the sidelines bemoaning the state of society.

We also seem to think that changing the world should be easier than reality suggests. The backlash we are now seeing against progressive policies was inevitable once we appeared to take these gains for granted and became arrogant and exclusive about the inevitability of our worldview. Our values demand the rebalancing of power, whether economic, social or cultural, and that means challenging those who currently have it. We may believe that a more equal world is one in which more will thrive, but that doesn’t mean those with entrenched privilege will give up their favoured status without a fight or that the public should express perpetual gratitude for our efforts via the ballot box either.  

Amongst the conferences, tweets and general rumblings there seem three schools of thought about what to do next. The first is Marxist  as in Groucho revisionism: to rise again we must water down our principles to accommodate where we believe the centre ground of politics to now be. Tone down our ideals in the hope that by such acquiescence we can eventually win back public support for our brand – if not our purpose. The very essence of a hollow victory.

The second is to stick to our guns and stick our heads in the sand, believing that eventually, when World War Three breaks out, the public will come grovelling back to us. To luxuriate in an unwillingness to see we are losing not just elected offices but the fight for our shared future.

But what if there really was a third way? It's not going to be easy, and it requires more than a hashtag or funny t-shirt. It’s about picking ourselves up, dusting ourselves down and starting to renew our call to arms in a way that makes sense for the modern world.

For the avoidance of doubt, if we march tomorrow and then go home satisfied we have made our point then we may as well not have marched at all. But if we march and continue to organise out of the networks we make, well, then that’s worth a Saturday in the cold. After all, we won’t win the battle of ideas, if we don’t battle.

We do have to change the way we work. We do have to have the courage not to live in our echo chambers alone. To go with respect and humility to debate and discuss the future of our communities and of our country.

And we have to come together to show there is a willingness not to ask a few brave souls to do that on their own. Not just at election times, but every day and in every corner of Britain, no matter how difficult it may feel.

Saturday is one part of that process of finding others willing not just to walk a mile with a placard, but to put in the hard yards to win the argument again for progressive values and vision. Maybe no one will show up. Maybe not many will keep going. But whilst there are folk with faith in each other, and in that alternative future, they’ll find a friend in me ready to work with them and will them on  and then Mr Banks really should be worried.