Lookahead: Republican primaries 2012

The when, where and who of the Republican primary elections.

The Republican primary race has kicked off in earnest. The Iowa caucus (see here for an explanation of caucuses/primaries) marked the beginning of a flood of votes as Republican voters choose a candidate. In a race that has so-far been defined by the prevalence of the unforeseen, it is impossible to know what the next few months will hold. If you're confused by the baffling array of votes taking place, here is a guide to when they're happening, what they mean, and who we can expect to do well


Broadly, the primaries will follow this schedule:

1 February - 5 March: Contests of traditional early states Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada, and South Carolina
6 March - 31 March: Contests that proportionally allocate delegates
1 April and onward: All other contests including winner-take-all elections

See below for a list of all primaries and caucuses that have been announced.

Who is running?

Michele Bachmann: US Representative from Minnesota's 6th Congressional District

Herman Cain: Businessman and radio-host from Georgia (campaign suspended on 3 December, following a series of sexual harrassment allegations)

Newt Gingrich: Former Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives from Georgia

Jon Huntsman: Former Governor of Utah and US Ambassador to China

Gary Johnson: Former Governor of New Mexico

Ron Paul: US Representative from Texas's 14th congressional district

Rick Perry: Governor of Texas

Mitt Romney: Former Governor of Massachusetts

Rick Santorum: Former Senator for Pennsylvania


All eyes are on this state, which provides the first indication of which way voters will go. While success in Iowa does not necessarily translate into ultimate victory, it is a reasonable indication of whether a candidate's message is getting through, and can have far-reaching implications for the rest of the race. In the past, some candidates have dropped out altogether after a poor showing in Iowa.

UPDATE 4 JANUARY: Mitt Romney has won in Iowa, beating Rick Santorum by just eight votes.


Another state that has drawn attention is Virginia -- because several candidates have failed to qualify to appear on the 6 March ballot after failing to provide the required 10,000 verified signatures. It is a particular blow for Gingrich -- whose campaign said that the state's electoral system is "failed" -- as he was leading the polls in the state. Four other candidates have also been excluded, with only Romney and Paul qualifying.


Almost all of the Republican candidates have had their time in the frontrunner spot at one point or another during this race. After a brief period on top, Gingrich is slipping behind once again, leaving the top spot open for Romney. However, the numbers are far from those traditionally enjoyed by the favourite. A poll by Rasmussen Reports last week gave Romney 25 per cent, followed by Paul on 20 per cent and Gingrich on 17, with the other candidates trailing behind with 10 per cent or less. Another poll, by Iowa State University, placed Paul on 27 per cent, Gingrich on 25, and Romney on just 17.


3 January: Iowa (caucus)
10 January: New Hampshire (primary)
21 January: South Carolina (primary)
31 January: Florida (primary)
4 February: Nevada (caucus)
4-11 February: Maine (caucus)
7 February: Colorado (caucus), Minnesota (caucus)
28 February: Arizona (primary), Michigan (primary)
3 March: Washington (caucus)
6 March: Alaska (caucus), Georgia (primary), Idaho (caucus), Massachusetts (primary), North Dakota (caucus), Ohio (primary), Oklahoma (primary), Tennessee (primary), Vermont (primary), Virginia (primary)
6-10 March: Wyoming (caucus)
10 March: Kansas (caucus), U.S. Virgin Islands (caucus)
13 March: Alabama (primary), American Samoa (caucus), Hawaii (caucus), Mississippi (primary)
17 March: Missouri (caucus)
18 March: Puerto Rico (caucus)
20 March: Illinois (primary)
24 March: Louisiana (primary)
3 April: Maryland (primary), Texas (primary), Washington DC (primary), Wisconsin (primary)
24 April: Connecticut (primary), Delaware (primary), New York (primary), Pennsylvania (primary), Rhode Island (primary)
8 May: Indiana (primary), North Carolina (primary), West Virginia (primary)
15 May: Nebraska (primary), Oregon (primary)
22 May: Arkansas (primary), Kentucky (primary)
5 June: California (primary), Montana (primary), New Jersey (primary), New Mexico (primary), South Dakota (primary)
26 June: Utah (primary)
To be announced: Guam (caucus), Northern Mariana Islands (caucus)

Samira Shackle is a freelance journalist, who tweets @samirashackle. She was formerly a staff writer for the New Statesman.

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The US election is now a referendum on the role of women

Melania Trump's recent defence of her husband's indefensible comments, shows why a Cinton victory is vital.

Maybe one day, when this brutal presidential election is over, Hillary Clinton will view Melania Trump with sympathy. The prospective Republican First Lady’s experience sometimes seems like an anxiety dream rerun of Clinton’s own time stumping for job of wife-in-chief back in 1992. Even before Bill Clinton had the Democratic nomination, rumours about his infidelities were being kicked up, and in a bid to outflank them, the Clintons appeared in a joint interview on the CBS current affairs show 60 Minutes. “I'm not sitting here some little woman standing by my man like Tammy Wynette,” she said, the extreme humiliation of her situation registering as perhaps the tiniest flicker across her perfectly composed face. “I'm sitting here because I love him and I respect him.”

Another decade, another TV interview, another consort to a nominee called on to defend her husband’s honour. After the release of Donald Trump’s grotesque “grab her by the pussy” comments from 2005, Melania headed out to do her wifely duty. But where the Clintons in 1992 had the benefit of uncertainty – the allegations against Bill were unproven – Melania is going up against the implacable fact of recorded evidence, and going up alone. Even leaving aside the boasts about sexual assault, which she’s at pains to discount, this still leave her talking about a tape of her husband declaring that he “tried to fuck” another woman when he was only newly married.

What Melania has to say in the circumstances sounds strained. How did she feel when she heard the recordings? “I was surprised, because [...] I don't know that person that would talk that way, and that he would say that kind of stuff in private,” she tells CNN's Anderson Cooper, giving the extraordinary impression that she’s never heard her husband sparring with shock-jock Howard Stern on the latter’s radio show, where he said this kind of thing all the time.

She minimises the comments as “boys talk” that he was “egged on” to make, then tries to dismiss women’s allegations that Trump behaves precisely as he claims to by ascribing their revelations to conspiracy – “This was all organized from the opposition.” (Shades here of Clinton’s now-regretted claim of a “vast right-wing conspiracy” against her own husband during the Lewinsky scandal.) “I believe my husband. I believe my husband,” she says, though this is a strangely contorted thing to say when her whole purpose in the interview is to convince the public that he shouldn’t be believed when he says he grabs pussies and kisses women without even waiting because when you’re a celebrity you can do that.

Melania’s speech to the Republican convention bore more than a passing resemblance to elements of Michelle Obama’s speech to the Democratic convention in 2008, but in fact Melania is working to a much, much older script for political wives: the one that says you will eat platefuls of your husband’s shit and smile about it if that’s what it takes to get him in power. It’s the role that Hillary had to take, the one that she bridled against so agonisingly through the cookie-competitions and the office affairs and, even in this election cycle, Trump’s gutter-level dig that “If Hillary Clinton can't satisfy her husband what makes her think she can satisfy America?”

Clinton soldiered through all that, in the process both remaking the office of First Lady and making her own career: “a lawyer, a law professor, first lady of Arkansas, first lady of the United States, a US senator, secretary of state. And she has been successful in every role, gaining more experience and exposure to the presidency than any candidate in our lifetime – more than Barack, more than Bill,” as Michelle Obama said in a speech last week. It was a speech that made it stirringly clear that the job of a First Lady is no longer to eat shit, as Obama launched into an eloquent and furious denunciation of Donald Trump.

A Trump win, said Obama, would “[send] a clear message to our kids that everything they’re seeing and hearing is perfectly OK. We are validating it. We are endorsing it. We’re telling our sons that it’s OK to humiliate women. We’re telling our daughters that this is how they deserve to be treated.” She’s right. From the moment Clinton was a contender for this election, this wasn’t merely a vote on who should lead the United States: it became a referendum on the role of women. From the measly insistences of Bernie Sanders voters that they’d love a woman president, just not the highly qualified woman actually on offer, to commentators’ meticulous fault-finding that reminds us a woman’s place is always in the wrong, she has had to constantly prove not only that she can do the job but that she has the right even to be considered for it.

Think back to her on that 60 Minutes sofa in 1992 saying she’s “not some little woman standing by her man.” Whatever else the Clinton marriage has been, it’s always been an alliance of two ambitious politicians. Melania Trump makes herself sound more like a nursemaid charged with a truculent child when she tells Cooper “sometimes say I have two boys at home, I have my young son and I have my husband.” Clinton has always worked for a world where being a woman doesn’t mean being part-nanny, part-grabbable pussy. Melania says she doesn’t want pity, but she will receive it in abundance. Her tragic apologetics belong to the past: the Clinton future is the one Michelle Obama showed us.

Sarah Ditum is a journalist who writes regularly for the Guardian, New Statesman and others. Her website is here.