Star Spangled Staggers

US politics from outside the beltway

Lookahead: Republican primaries 2012

The when, where and who of the Republican primary elections.

By Samira Shackle Published 27 December 2011 15:51

The Republican primary race has kicked off in earnest. The Iowa caucus (see here for an explanation of caucuses/primaries) marked the beginning of a flood of votes as Republican voters choose a candidate. In a race that has so-far been defined by the prevalence of the unforeseen, it is impossible to know what the next few months will hold. If you're confused by the baffling array of votes taking place, here is a guide to when they're happening, what they mean, and who we can expect to do well

Schedule

Broadly, the primaries will follow this schedule:

1 February - 5 March: Contests of traditional early states Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada, and South Carolina
6 March - 31 March: Contests that proportionally allocate delegates
1 April and onward: All other contests including winner-take-all elections

See below for a list of all primaries and caucuses that have been announced.

Who is running?

Michele Bachmann: US Representative from Minnesota's 6th Congressional District

Herman Cain: Businessman and radio-host from Georgia (campaign suspended on 3 December, following a series of sexual harrassment allegations)

Newt Gingrich: Former Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives from Georgia

Jon Huntsman: Former Governor of Utah and US Ambassador to China

Gary Johnson: Former Governor of New Mexico

Ron Paul: US Representative from Texas's 14th congressional district

Rick Perry: Governor of Texas

Mitt Romney: Former Governor of Massachusetts

Rick Santorum: Former Senator for Pennsylvania

Iowa

All eyes are on this state, which provides the first indication of which way voters will go. While success in Iowa does not necessarily translate into ultimate victory, it is a reasonable indication of whether a candidate's message is getting through, and can have far-reaching implications for the rest of the race. In the past, some candidates have dropped out altogether after a poor showing in Iowa.

UPDATE 4 JANUARY: Mitt Romney has won in Iowa, beating Rick Santorum by just eight votes.

Virginia

Another state that has drawn attention is Virginia -- because several candidates have failed to qualify to appear on the 6 March ballot after failing to provide the required 10,000 verified signatures. It is a particular blow for Gingrich -- whose campaign said that the state's electoral system is "failed" -- as he was leading the polls in the state. Four other candidates have also been excluded, with only Romney and Paul qualifying.

Polls

Almost all of the Republican candidates have had their time in the frontrunner spot at one point or another during this race. After a brief period on top, Gingrich is slipping behind once again, leaving the top spot open for Romney. However, the numbers are far from those traditionally enjoyed by the favourite. A poll by Rasmussen Reports last week gave Romney 25 per cent, followed by Paul on 20 per cent and Gingrich on 17, with the other candidates trailing behind with 10 per cent or less. Another poll, by Iowa State University, placed Paul on 27 per cent, Gingrich on 25, and Romney on just 17.

Timetable

3 January: Iowa (caucus)
10 January: New Hampshire (primary)
21 January: South Carolina (primary)
31 January: Florida (primary)
4 February: Nevada (caucus)
4-11 February: Maine (caucus)
7 February: Colorado (caucus), Minnesota (caucus)
28 February: Arizona (primary), Michigan (primary)
3 March: Washington (caucus)
6 March: Alaska (caucus), Georgia (primary), Idaho (caucus), Massachusetts (primary), North Dakota (caucus), Ohio (primary), Oklahoma (primary), Tennessee (primary), Vermont (primary), Virginia (primary)
6-10 March: Wyoming (caucus)
10 March: Kansas (caucus), U.S. Virgin Islands (caucus)
13 March: Alabama (primary), American Samoa (caucus), Hawaii (caucus), Mississippi (primary)
17 March: Missouri (caucus)
18 March: Puerto Rico (caucus)
20 March: Illinois (primary)
24 March: Louisiana (primary)
3 April: Maryland (primary), Texas (primary), Washington DC (primary), Wisconsin (primary)
24 April: Connecticut (primary), Delaware (primary), New York (primary), Pennsylvania (primary), Rhode Island (primary)
8 May: Indiana (primary), North Carolina (primary), West Virginia (primary)
15 May: Nebraska (primary), Oregon (primary)
22 May: Arkansas (primary), Kentucky (primary)
5 June: California (primary), Montana (primary), New Jersey (primary), New Mexico (primary), South Dakota (primary)
26 June: Utah (primary)
To be announced: Guam (caucus), Northern Mariana Islands (caucus)

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Tags: Ron Paul Republican Primaries Newt Gingrich Mitt Romney Iowa

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37 comments

Sun, 2012-01-01 20:15 — John Cheese (not verified)

Wonder why the Democratic Senate has produced no budget for over 2 1/2 years??? Care to comment? Congressional approval @ 9% & falling...

Tue, 2012-01-03 17:42 — Hugh Markey (not verified)

All these contenders for the presidency are illegal immigrants. Democrats too, mind you.
Native Americans? European flotsam and jetsam initially then Nazi practitioners and even Aussies made it to 'God's Country'.
Thanks be ....for the Hispanics - they have some native blood in their veins.

Melting Pot

Tue, 2011-12-27 17:44 — swatantra nandanwar

Good luck Mitt, the Clean Candidate!
We should hold Primaries here.

Tue, 2011-12-27 18:33 — jankaas (not verified)

"Good luck Mitt, the Clean Candidate!"

which Mitt though?

http://www.democrats.org/which-mitt

the man changes his mind so frequently it's clear he has no moral compass. that he is in the lead is almost irrelevant. and he is a Mormon, which is about as bad as it gets for many Evangelicals.

from that bad lot my fave is Ron Paul, but that's a bit like saying who my favourite rapist is.

Thu, 2011-12-29 18:32 — jankaas (not verified)

"You can't/won't refute the 7 points"

but i did exactly that. unless you seriously imagine that your list was in a great shape when Obama took over?

"Strangest political times I have ever seen here."

yep. never has the unelected minority done so much to obstruct the elected administration. it's as if Republicans just don't care what the majority of voters voted for....

btw i see that my bet is just too risky for you to take on? i don't blame you.

Tue, 2011-12-27 23:36 — David Lindsay

Like Rick Perry, Newt Gingrich has failed to make it onto the Virginia primary ballot. Gingrich’s Pennsylvanian carpet-bagging attempt to project his prejudices onto the South obviously has no traction among Southerners themselves.

The Virginia primary is now the thing most needful: a straight fight between Mitt Romney and Ron Paul. With no Democratic contest, everyone should be registered as a Republican in this cycle, in order to ensure the nomination of Paul, with his opposition to bailouts, to wars, and to the erosion of constitutional checks and balances, and thus in order to force Obama to see him and raise on those issues.

Wed, 2011-12-28 01:24 — John Cheese (not verified)

@Lindsay: Paul has some good ideas but is too wacky to get the nomination. Probably will be Mitt & I predict a close race with Pres Barry due more knowledge this time around about the guy. It's been a very strange Presidency to say the least: 0bamacare, massive spending & bailouts, lack of balanced leadership & an aloofness people don't like. The gloves will be off.

Tue, 2012-01-10 06:31 — fairplay (not verified)

@john cleese

ron paul is a conservative, an honest man and one of morals too who puts the best interests of the american public first. and if he runs as an independent watch this space

people have had enough. him winning the amount of votes he already has, despite an unbelievably derogatory media campaign against him tainted with nothing more than outright lies, is a massive achievement and shows how disaffected the average american voter is becoming

go ron paul. lets rattle the cage of the establishment, the warmongers and the thieving bankers to boot. you're the man!!

Mon, 2012-01-02 12:09 — jankaas (not verified)

"Care to comment?"

sure John, right after you tell me you'll take that bet.

Sun, 2012-01-08 13:34 — jankaas (not verified)

i agree that Ron Paul is the 'best' GOP candidate, which isn't a whole lot to shout about. the Republicans really have managed to screw themselves better than anyone else could ever have.

Wed, 2011-12-28 13:48 — jankaas (not verified)

@John Cheese

"The gloves will be off."

certainly hope so, but it will be a cat fight between GOP candidates, fur will fly that's for sure. can't wait - mutual destruction guaranteed imho.

especially as Mitt had his own version of Medicare when governor.
and the GOP spent/wasted more money than is almost humanly imaginable during the Bush era.

also your economy is showing some signs of recovery, despite the GOP's best efforts to ruin their own country (see recent payroll tax disaster, and debt ceiling shenanigans)

then your last 2 points just sound like hot air, care to explain what you meant?

i think you've a very difficlut paper round trying to defend this pack of candidates. good luck!

Wed, 2011-12-28 17:52 — Buckskins (not verified)

I bet you Brits wish you could pick your country's leader.

The House of Lords......*giggle*

Wed, 2011-12-28 17:57 — Buckskins (not verified)

Ron Paul would pull out every American serviceman and woman from Europe. For this alone I could vote for the guy.
Newt will continue to kick ass.Lets face it, he loathes Europeans and would do the same.

Wed, 2011-12-28 18:16 — jankaas (not verified)

"Ron Paul would pull out every American serviceman and woman from Europe. For this alone I could vote for the guy.

Newt will continue to kick ass.Lets face it, he loathes Europeans and would do the same."

just as you appear to make a valuable salient point, you drape it in cheap negative sentiment and make yourself look daft. "loathes" indeed...

indeed it is time NATO was wound down, it was only ever designed for a bygone era. but to imagine that POTUS would leave Europe for such petty infantile reasons as you imagine speaks volumes of your inability to debate any issue meaningfully.

you just descend into the gutter at every available opportunity. why is that Buckskins?

Thu, 2011-12-29 22:33 — David Lindsay

The battle for the Republican Presidential nomination is now exactly as the Virginia primary will be: a straight fight. On one side is Mitt Romney, the prophet and apostle of socialised medicine, who ran for the Senate from the left of Ted Kennedy. On the other is that pro-life gynaecologist and obstetrician, Ron Paul, with his opposition to bailouts, to wars, and to the erosion of constitutional checks and balances.

Either of them would be just what Obama needed in order to compel him to be true to himself and break once and for all with the failures and divisions of the Clinton years, finally inaugurating a newer and better age in his party’s history. But the concerns raised by Paul are more immediately pressing. Paul must be the nominee. There is no Democratic contest, so register as Republicans and make it happen. Everyone. Just do it.

To whingeing Dubya nostalgists who might object, the nomination of Paul, and the utter transformation of the GOP entailed by that nomination, would be the beautiful revenge of those whose party was stolen by those NYC Trotskyists who went on to stage the Great Coup of 2000 behind their ridiculous Manchurian Candidate. The likes of Robert Kagan and John Bolton have since moved on to Gingrich. Oh, well. Never mind.

Wed, 2011-12-28 20:37 — John Cheese (not verified)

US "old TV" news is flat-lining- people are catching on to the left bias. We are getting information thru the Internet & email. This Prez election will be different- it will be a right/left catfight. 0bammy's a known quantity now- most small business owners I have questioned in the last 12 mths all think he is a disaster & will not vote for him. People are mad about 0bamacare & hellacious spending levels. Congressional approval rating of 9% right now. Commercial office leasing is way down, many have walked away from the job market. Acting elite is not popular in fly-over country. A one and done he is!

Tue, 2012-01-10 14:04 — jankaas (not verified)

@John Cheese

"Nice try, but no clue pal"

wow, so Ron Paul should not be in the running for these Republican Primaries??!!

surely you can't be the only one who realises this? shouldn't you call someone, or do something other than make yourself look like such a petty dick on this thread....?

"Bamster"

ffs, grow up already.

Wed, 2011-12-28 20:46 — John Cheese (not verified)

1.Every day, the U.S. government takes in $6 billion and spends $10 billion. This means that every day the federal government spends $4 billion more dollars than it has.
2.The real unemployment rate is a jaw-dropping 11 percent.
3.Every fifth person you pass on your way to work is now out of work.
4.College graduates are now 34% less likely to find a job under Obama than they were under President George W. Bush.
5.Every seventh person you pass on the sidewalk now relies on food stamps.
6.The ravages of the Obama economy now mean that more Americans live under the federal poverty line than at any time in U.S. history since records have been kept.
7.Under President Barack Obama, every fifth child in America now lives in poverty.

Mon, 2012-01-02 19:41 — John Cheese (not verified)

@jankaas: Save your euro-pennies for Greece bailout dutch-boy...

Wed, 2012-01-25 03:53 — John Cheese (not verified)

@jankersloot: Ron Paul is 76, will be 81 yrs in 2016. He can help with Fed policy but is too fringe on Foreign policy- hes not viable. Sorry. You can dish out the slurs but can't take it- whiner...

Mon, 2012-01-02 21:30 — jankaas (not verified)

i'll take that as you agreeing with me then; Obama will be re-elected.

Fri, 2011-12-30 05:12 — John Cheese (not verified)

Most US voters are not interested in the Nanny-state or fringe-conspiracy isolationism. They are tired of off the charts unchecked spending. Barak is hitting record low approval. The timing may be right for Mitt.

Mon, 2012-01-02 23:47 — John Cheese (not verified)

@jan: see 12/28 at 19:46 response & you will see why you have no clue about American Fed politics. Nice try though...

Fri, 2011-12-30 11:21 — jankaas (not verified)

" Barak is hitting record low approval."

you are a damn liar John Cheese. you must imagine that everyone else is as dumb as you.

http://content.usatoday.com/communities/theoval/post/2011/12/gallup-obam...

Obama currently has about double the rating 'enjoyed' by GW the last 2 years of his administration.

buy all means continue to talk out of your arse, i won't be listening. the only thing i'll respond to is if you take on my bet to you.

partisan wimp.

Thu, 2011-12-29 12:54 — jankaas (not verified)

@John

"the left bias"

thanks for that tired old lie. funny how Republicans see facts as "Liberal bias", and pretend the US media is Liberal. utter bollox.

"This Prez election will be different- it will be a right/left catfight."

could be, though the 1st cat fight is the GOP candidacy battle. it's already soooo bitchy, most amusing to the likes of us stuck as onlookers.

you then list a whole lot of situations that you pretend are the sole creation of Obama's period in office. this marks you out as being utterly delusional. if you can't even acknowledge that Obama inherited an absolute train wreck when he took office, then you are will never be part of the solution to your country's woes.

it's as if Americans like you just genuinely don't care what happens next just as long as the GOP is at the helm. i think it borders on insanity.

but i will offer you a bet, just $10 to your favourite charity when Obama is re-elected. i will donate same value if he loses. are we on?

Fri, 2011-12-30 16:14 — John Cheese (not verified)

USA Today leans a little left- no? Your own country has deregulated gvt interaction in the economy for the last 20 years- & it's helped your economy. You have no clue- especially about US conditions. Want some cheese w/that whine?

Tue, 2012-01-03 14:01 — jankaas (not verified)

for your failing memory;

29 December 2011 at 11:54

Thu, 2011-12-29 14:53 — John Cheese (not verified)

@jankaas: You can't/won't refute the 7 points,& most of the media will not either. Strangest political times I have ever seen here. I've never seen so many people & friends so concerned about the US. It always makes me chuckle how you euros are so confident in your US assessment. Drink your latte, pay your high taxes & watch your TV tube!

Fri, 2011-12-30 18:36 — jankaas (not verified)

thanks for continuing to talk out of your arse John. bye bye then.

Sat, 2012-01-07 06:39 — J Unit CYP UK

Dear Samira Shackle, I beileive the early voting states are Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina and Florida. Nevada is not meant to be in there (I don't think so anyway).

Sat, 2012-01-07 06:43 — J Unit CYP UK

People are saying Bush 43 was a big spending President. He was, but it fit in with his Compassionate Conservative ideology, one which hunts for things wrong with government (Immigration, Medic aid, Medicare, Education, Social Security) and improve them. You could actualy go into the pub and have a drink with Bush (but his will have to be non alcoholic).

Sat, 2012-01-07 06:46 — J Unit CYP UK

I think its odd that they go to Puerto Rico and American Samoa, they're not even part of the USA

Sun, 2012-01-08 10:34 — fairplay (not verified)

with an unbiased media and a fair crack of the whip ron paul would win hands down. however, the msm worldwide is frightened to death of this mans policies and those who say he is a whacko obviously do most of their judging by what is portrayed by the corporate owned msm.

go ron paul..otherwise its obama "yes we can" start more wars, kill more people, steal more money and give more powers to big business, and push the middle class into the pages of history

Mon, 2012-01-09 22:40 — John Cheese (not verified)

@jankaas: Nice try, but no clue pal...Paul is not a Repub, he's a Libertarian. He may garner 10% of vote at best. Small but vocal support. Bamster praying our gas doesn't jump to $5/gallon this summer- the anger level is already high about our economy. Lavish secret White House parties don't help...

Sun, 2012-01-01 18:38 — John Cheese (not verified)

@jankaas: Any remorse in participating in the Euro? Save your pennies, get ready to bail out Greece & Italy doofus...

Sun, 2012-01-01 18:53 — jankaas (not verified)

i thought the Euro a load of old nonsense from the get go.

how cute though for you to call me doofus.

talking of money, you taking that bet, or do you accept you haven't a farts chance in hell of winning?