Cameron's guru goes west

Has Tory decontamination gone for good too?

The more consequential of the two stories contained in the latest extracts from Francis Elliott and James Hanning's book about David Cameron, which I blogged about yesterday, concerned the departure from Number 10 of the Prime Minister's director of strategy, Steve Hilton. "As the Government approached its halfway mark," Elliott and Hanning wrote, "Hilton remained the player in the team 'who believes in things', as one Tory puts it, and one who wanted to make bold, radical changes ... Hilton’s friends began openly wondering whether Cameron shared his passion."

Hilton's decision to take a "sabbatical" (that is likely to turn out to be a permanent furlough) is preoccupying several commentators today. John Rentoul in the Independent on Sunday thinks it marks the end of the first phase of the Cameron government. Rentoul repeats Elliott and Hanning's suggestion that, for a while now, it's been the "cold calculations" of George Osborne that have had the PM's ear, rather than Hilton's "idealistic enthusiasms" about shrinking the state. (Hilton appears to have dealt with the apparent prime ministerial rebuff by raging at civil servants; the mandarinate certainly wasn't begging him to stay.) But, Rentoul adds, that shift in Cameron's affections has wider ramifications:

It is a buddy-movie break-up to touch the hardest of hearts. Yet it also makes a difference to the character of the Government, because it coincides with a mid-term shift in how Cameron is seen by the voters. The Prime Minister used to be more popular than the Conservative Party. He seemed to play the part of unifying national leader well. But our opinion poll today is the first from ComRes that puts his personal rating below Ed Miliband's.

That Cameron is now more unpopular than the Labour leader suggests that Hilton's "decontamination" strategy has failed (the attempt since 2005 to rehabilitate the Tories and to convince voters that they're no longer the "nasty party" being more or less entirely a function of the personality of the Prime Minister). Rentoul is surely right, therefore, to suggest that "Hiltonism – defined as persuading the voters that the Tories are not the party which looks after its own – is the key to the next election." 

Over at Conservative Home, Paul Goodman offers a subtly different, but no less interesting, analysis of the Hilton era. The government's problem, Goodman suggests, is that it hasn't been able to decide who incarnates its authentic self - Hilton or Osborne:

To date, the Conservative part of this Government has been half-Osborne, that most worldly politician of all (reason, calculation, limited aims and a dash of cynicism) and half-Hilton (heart, impulse, transformative ambition and idealism). The Government's mid-term plight has been shaped largely by the lack of a majority and a shortage of money. But trying to be all things to all men has wreaked collateral damage.

Rentoul suggests that Hilton himself must bear some of the blame for this predicament:

The Budget was a historic error, from which all of Cameron's problems flow. It was a betrayal of Hiltonism. In opposition, Hilton would never have contemplated a tax cut for the rich that would so offend the AB liberal demographic group. Yet Hilton himself was complicit in the turn away from his own policy of Tory decontamination. Once in government and charged with progress-chasing, he allowed his frustrations with Europe and the Liberal Democrats to override the need to appeal to centrist voters. By railing against Europe and offending the Lib Dems by trying to curtail maternity rights and to make it easier to sack workers, he seemed to be reverting to a William Hague 2001 strategy.

Of course, some have suspected all along that "Tory decontamination" was only ever skin deep. Certainly, it hasn't turned out to be the definitive solution to the Conservative Party's electoral woes that Hilton and the Cameroons thought it would be.

On his bike: Steve Hilton (photo: Getty Images)

Jonathan Derbyshire is Managing Editor of Prospect. He was formerly Culture Editor of the New Statesman.

Ukip's Nigel Farage and Paul Nuttall. Photo: Getty
Show Hide image

Is the general election 2017 the end of Ukip?

Ukip led the way to Brexit, but now the party is on less than 10 per cent in the polls. 

Ukip could be finished. Ukip has only ever had two MPs, but it held an outside influence on politics: without it, we’d probably never have had the EU referendum. But Brexit has turned Ukip into a single-issue party without an issue. Ukip’s sole remaining MP, Douglas Carswell, left the party in March 2017, and told Sky News’ Adam Boulton that there was “no point” to the party anymore. 

Not everyone in Ukip has given up, though: Nigel Farage told Peston on Sunday that Ukip “will survive”, and current leader Paul Nuttall will be contesting a seat this year. But Ukip is standing in fewer constituencies than last time thanks to a shortage of both money and people. Who benefits if Ukip is finished? It’s likely to be the Tories. 

Is Ukip finished? 

What are Ukip's poll ratings?

Ukip’s poll ratings peaked in June 2016 at 16 per cent. Since the leave campaign’s success, that has steadily declined so that Ukip is going into the 2017 general election on 4 per cent, according to the latest polls. If the polls can be trusted, that’s a serious collapse.

Can Ukip get anymore MPs?

In the 2015 general election Ukip contested nearly every seat and got 13 per cent of the vote, making it the third biggest party (although is only returned one MP). Now Ukip is reportedly struggling to find candidates and could stand in as few as 100 seats. Ukip leader Paul Nuttall will stand in Boston and Skegness, but both ex-leader Nigel Farage and donor Arron Banks have ruled themselves out of running this time.

How many members does Ukip have?

Ukip’s membership declined from 45,994 at the 2015 general election to 39,000 in 2016. That’s a worrying sign for any political party, which relies on grassroots memberships to put in the campaigning legwork.

What does Ukip's decline mean for Labour and the Conservatives? 

The rise of Ukip took votes from both the Conservatives and Labour, with a nationalist message that appealed to disaffected voters from both right and left. But the decline of Ukip only seems to be helping the Conservatives. Stephen Bush has written about how in Wales voting Ukip seems to have been a gateway drug for traditional Labour voters who are now backing the mainstream right; so the voters Ukip took from the Conservatives are reverting to the Conservatives, and the ones they took from Labour are transferring to the Conservatives too.

Ukip might be finished as an electoral force, but its influence on the rest of British politics will be felt for many years yet. 

0800 7318496