Ed Miliband leads “new generation” of Labour

David concedes with great dignity.

Despite predicting in the New Statesman in December 2008 that Ed Miliband would succeed Gordon Brown, I am still stunned by what we have just seen in the conference hall in Manchester today.

There is no point in pretending Ed's defeat of David isn't one of the most dramatic stories in modern British political history. This is a tale of ruthless and focused determination, based on what Ed regarded as an importantly different set of policies. The result is that the Labour Party has today moved clearly on from Tony Blair.

Yet it was so close: David was ahead in the first three rounds and it was only at the last that Ed pipped his elder brother. David was the first on his feet. He embraced his brother warmly. He listened intently. And he kept his smile on throughout. But there is no hiding the fact that what has happened here today is a tragedy for him, one of the brightest and best in the Labour movement.

Ed will desperately be hoping he can unite his party and his family. Time will tell. In the meantime, this party prepares to walk out of the shadow of Tony Blair and Gordon Brown. The Tories will claim they are happy with the result. Yet Ed is one of the most charismatic and alluring politicians of the age. The fight for power at the next election has begun.

One word of warning, though: there will be endless -- there already are -- attacks from Tories saying Labour is controlled by the unions. Much of it will be nonsense. However, Labour would do well now to consider splitting with the unions which -- as with the C of E and the state -- would be in both parties' interests.

James Macintyre is political correspondent for the New Statesman.
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Voters are turning against Brexit but the Lib Dems aren't benefiting

Labour's pro-Brexit stance is not preventing it from winning the support of Remainers. Will that change?

More than a year after the UK voted for Brexit, there has been little sign of buyer's remorse. The public, including around a third of Remainers, are largely of the view that the government should "get on with it".

But as real wages are squeezed (owing to the Brexit-linked inflationary spike) there are tentative signs that the mood is changing. In the event of a second referendum, an Opinium/Observer poll found, 47 per cent would vote Remain, compared to 44 per cent for Leave. Support for a repeat vote is also increasing. Forty one per cent of the public now favour a second referendum (with 48 per cent opposed), compared to 33 per cent last December. 

The Liberal Democrats have made halting Brexit their raison d'être. But as public opinion turns, there is no sign they are benefiting. Since the election, Vince Cable's party has yet to exceed single figures in the polls, scoring a lowly 6 per cent in the Opinium survey (down from 7.4 per cent at the election). 

What accounts for this disparity? After their near-extinction in 2015, the Lib Dems remain either toxic or irrelevant to many voters. Labour, by contrast, despite its pro-Brexit stance, has hoovered up Remainers (55 per cent back Jeremy Corbyn's party). 

In some cases, this reflects voters' other priorities. Remainers are prepared to support Labour on account of the party's stances on austerity, housing and education. Corbyn, meanwhile, is a eurosceptic whose internationalism and pro-migration reputation endear him to EU supporters. Other Remainers rewarded Labour MPs who voted against Article 50, rebelling against the leadership's stance. 

But the trend also partly reflects ignorance. By saying little on the subject of Brexit, Corbyn and Labour allowed Remainers to assume the best. Though there is little evidence that voters will abandon Corbyn over his EU stance, the potential exists.

For this reason, the proposal of a new party will continue to recur. By challenging Labour over Brexit, without the toxicity of Lib Dems, it would sharpen the choice before voters. Though it would not win an election, a new party could force Corbyn to soften his stance on Brexit or to offer a second referendum (mirroring Ukip's effect on the Conservatives).

The greatest problem for the project is that it lacks support where it counts: among MPs. For reasons of tribalism and strategy, there is no emergent "Gang of Four" ready to helm a new party. In the absence of a new convulsion, the UK may turn against Brexit without the anti-Brexiteers benefiting. 

George Eaton is political editor of the New Statesman.