Romney is running out of time to turn the US election around
The Republican candidate didn't get the poll bounce he needed from his party's convention.
By Tom Mludzinski Published 06 September 2012 14:27
Despite being overshadowed by a bizarre Clint Eastwood performance and Hurricane Isaac hitting Florida and New Orleans, Mitt Romney managed to make some progress with the American public at the Republican convention last week. But was it enough?
On the eve of the convention, Romney was four points behind Barack Obama nationally and behind the President in all but one of the thirteen personal characteristics we polled on. Following a prolonged and brutal primary campaign, Romney had to use the convention to formally introduce himself to the nation (and not just Republican primary voters). Republicans had one clear aim for the convention, to make Romney seem more "human", more in touch with average Americans and more likeable. Our Ipsos daily convention polling for Reuters in the US shows that in that respect at least, Romney and the Republicans succeeded.
The tone of the Convention was set by the candidate’s wife, Ann Romney, on the opening day of the convention, who told the audience and the millions watching that she didn’t want to talk about "politics or policy" but wanted to focus on "love" and her "American family" with Romney. She went on to explain why she fell in love with the man she met at a high school dance … because he made her laugh. To followers of British politics this may sound trivial, but in Presidential politics, where electors are voting specifically for a candidate to the top job, strategists believe it is very important. It also seems to be seeping into British politics – remember Sarah Brown? The Ipsos/Reuters poll released on Day One of the convention, which showed that just 26% of registered voters thought Romney was likeable, compared with 54% for Obama, highlighted the problem for the Republican candidate.
Romney’s own speech had its fair share of campaign promises and attacks on President Obama, but it carefully interweaved these with stories about his family (he is a father of five and a grandfather to 18) and "American families", his own struggles and success. Following on from his wife’s speech he spoke about the importance of love, the inspiration and lessons he has drawn on from his parents – he even joked about having better music on his iPod than his running mate Paul Ryan. The stand out section of his speech on family life is repeated below which Tim Stanley in the Telegraph described thus: "On the page it probably reads as clichéd. But in person – coming from dull old Mitt and delivered in a voice that quivered with emotion – it was a revelation".
Mom and Dad were married 64 years. And if you wondered what their secret was, you could have asked the local florist – because every day Dad gave Mom a rose, which he put on her bedside table. That's how she found out what happened on the day my father died – she went looking for him because that morning, there was no rose.
Romney also made a direct – and obvious - appeal to women, perhaps trying to counter the accusations that Republicans are waging a "War on Women" with proposals for anti-abortion legislation among other things[1]. The former Governor of Massachusetts quoted his own mother in asking "Why should women have any less say than men, about the great decisions facing our nation?"
So did it work? Romney’s likeability rating went from 26% on day one to 32% at the end of the Convention. A relative success. He also saw improvements in his ratings as eloquent and will protect American jobs (both up five points) as well as: a good person, represents America, has the right values (all up four points).
However, despite these image boosts, among all likely voters Romney and Obama were level pegging, both on 45% of the vote. Candidates are expected to receive bounces after their conventions, and seven days after the beginning of the Republican convention Romney had still not moved ahead of his opponent. With the Democrats gathering in North Carolina this week, the President can expect his own bpunce, once again establishing a small lead in the national polls. There are three Presidential debates scheduled for the 2012 campaign, the first being on 3 October. These are the only remaining scheduled potential game changing moments left in the race for the White House.
Tom Mludzinski is Deputy Head of Politics at Ipsos MORI
Follow Tom on Twitter @tom_mlud
For Ipsos polling on the USA follow @ipsosnewspolls
[1] It is worth pointing out that women are traditionally more likely to support Democrats than Republicans in any case.
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19 comments
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Can you imagine what the white house would be like if this morman gets in
Can you imagine what the white house would be like if this morman gets in
Trouble is the country has not moved-on, as President O is still loading his sling with "Little Rocks"
'because he made her laugh.'
Just in case they think that Mormons have no sense of humor.
indeed Mitt has to be a comedian.
I see we have the usual kool-aid drinking republicans with us today. Why are you bothering with a British left-wing magazine which very few American's read? Are you really that insecure?
@Kit Romney's unfavourables are much higher. Reagan was actually quite moderate compared to the tea party/republicans, and had lower unfavourables than Carter. Obama is leading in all but one of the swing states.
@John Cheese you can believe that, but it has no relation to reality. It is the Republicans who are misrepresenting facts and out right lying (especially Paul '3 hour marathon' Ryan). It is the Romney campaign which is pulling out of PA (which campaigns only really do if they are 10 points behind, which means they are probably 5 points behind in Ohio, a must win state), and are getting their Super PAC allies to sling as much mud as possible.
patm: Two distinctly different choices in this election, but you should know, this one is not so much about Obama/Romney as it is about a generational choice. Biggest election in 40 years...this will decide Supreme Court lean for the next 30 years & about the choice of; conservative free-market path or the statist, big-government euro-model lite socialism. Very ironic with the two candidates- a race for the next 2 mths to know Mitt better vs keeping minimal personal knowledge hidden on candidate Obama, at arms length. Pain level in the US is very big, & business is on stall mode, drifting. Certain GOP governor states are turning state budgets around by cutting spending, not raising taxes, and people are noticing. Remember Wisconsin 2010? GOP Tampa was energetic, diverse, loaded with new upcoming leaders & not viciously mean, Dem's Charlotte was quirky, strange, unorganized & strangely focused on the theme of abortion & tax-payer funded free $4 contraception?? I don't get that..
I think it will be a decisive GOP victory.
The Romney-Ryan message is a vague - ooh look how bad it is - we can make it better. No-one is falling for it. They cannot be specific about how they will make it better and people don't forget it's this brand of dummies that caused all - or very nearly all - of the economic problems.
Reps will win iff*
1) they can disenfranchise significent numbers of black, hispanic and otherwise poorer voters through their shameful voter ID laws and limited access to early voting etc, etc.
2) they can scare some foolish mostly older people with images of gay marriage and rampant sexuality.
3) they can convince people to vote for the men as against the message. Romney is about as charismatic as a wet dish rag but Ryan looks like an OK guy which makes him dangerous. Obama is much more likeable, charismatic, intelligent and a far better orator. He is black though. That's gotta be good for 30% of the Republican vote - pity so much is concentrated in the south!
Now - I'm no Obama groupie. He is doing some terrible things with drone strikes etc. Really aweful. And he has failed to do very much positive in his first 4 years. Too busy killing alligators to drain the swamp perhaps. Too much mindless opposition from the Republicans (who don't care what happens to America as long as they get Obama out.)
But - as US elections are always a choice between two representatives of the 'business' party, you gotta hope the lesser of two evils wins. For America and for the rest of the planet that has to be Obama.
Romney-Ryan will implement a huge transfer of wealth from poor and middle class Americans to the richest Americans. They will rush headlong into wars in Syria and Iran (and no doubt other places too) without thinking it through. They will further alienate America from what allies remain.
None of this matters to the Republic base who live in cloud cuckoo land. But it will make them poorer, less secure and more unhappy - they just won't understand why.
The smart Republican voters are those who really will gain - the 1% or less. But there are very few of them, so they have to scare the masses into voting for them with tales of doom and gloom and the big gay marriage monster.
Another reason the Republicans are going all in this time is they know it is their last chance - more and more of the oldies are dying and more and more blacks and hispanics and other immigrants are getting old enough to vote.
I don't normally bother with John Cheese as he's a bit trollish. Oh well.
*iff = if and only if.
Not that complicated...It's the economy- plain & simple. Not social issues, not celebrity, not tangent side issues, not strategy. Job numbers just out, dismal again. Many, many are giving up, walking away. He's toast...
And you're cheese on toast I suppose?
I AM worried Romney could win - but it won't be a landslide. This will be as close as 2004 or the Dems will get their foot on Romney's neck and crush them into the mud....
It is possible some desperate people will vote for change just in the hopes that it will be for the better..but it won't Mr Cheese. If Romney wins it will be a collosal disaster for those who are struggling now to find a job, keep one or get by while working two or even three low paid jobs.
You only have to look at Romney when he's speaking - even he knows it's a load of hooey. You can tell by the way he keeps moving his head about and then tries to look at the camera. Classic.
I don't think it will even be close. Five points at least. It's startling that Obama is faring as well as he is now..some of it is strained polling by a serviant media. Include the walk-aways & our unemployment number is more like 15% or higher right now, with inflation, energy & food poised to hike up very soon... There is no dirt on Mitt and he has succeeded tremendously in private corporate world & has big-time gubenatorial experience. He accomplished things in a heavy blue state. Charitable with income. Donated his governor's salary. Donated his SLC Olympic bailout salary. Probably the best resume in 40 years for POTUS. More campaign money in the home stretch.
If Mitt & Ryan can't get elected in these conditions, then the table is set for our euro-statist future. I just don't think the people will have that. Will be very interesting, although very seriouse for our future. We have Putin so worried right now about us, he talking about orgies & group sex. I can tell he's scared...
I am more worried aboout the hundreds of millions of dollars extra the Republicans are going to throw at swing states in the last few weeks.
The Democrats were always going to win the public speaking contest, the facts are all on their side and what arguments the Republicans can bring have very short legs. But the ability to outspend the Dems by 4 or 5 to 1 has got to count for something.
What do I think of American Democracy? It might be worth trying one day.
Well according to the Yesmen he has already won the contest!
"I is working class, non-white, and can bring the votes in up the North of England, he said to his boss, please do not sack me I am doing a good job"! Then Cameron said to him "But I made you a Baroness so I could drop you when I failed myself!" I have to keep the momentum of doing nothing but falling asleep"
Dave then takes off his WC Fields straw hat, throws the ivory cane at the brolley stand and it clatters to the floor; and realises he is not Steed from "The Avengers",calls the make-over woman and hey presto phones Clegg to find out that he was asleep too and no-one was running the country that was half elected.
Then Dave awoke from his post party siesta and realised it was an American male President on the TV, and had indeed got confused with the liquid red stuff that is good for the heart but bad for the Liver.
Mitt loves his mum. He get's my vote!
"Romney is running out of time to turn the US election around"
to quote Jon Stewart; "Time has a liberal bias?"
I think Mludzinski is hoping to create the change he wants to see by pretending Romney is failing in his campaign.
The current sitting president has a lower approval rating just 2 months short of the election than Jimmy Carter had before he lost in a landslide to Reagan.
And that's the *good* news.
The bad news ?
We have Carter's mistakes to compare to Barack- and he's making Jimmy look good !
At least Carter has the reputation for *building* homes , and ensuring that elections aren't fraudulent - with NO record of supporting orgs like ACORN that go out of their way to create fraud in the electoral process.
It's ok to be a doubting Thomas- but in this case, I doubt the writer's being honest.
I think the pressure is more on Obama. His campaign is in sling mode, throwing everything out there & hoping something sticks. The 2010 mid-terms were historic & the old media didn't see it coming. Our unemployment is much worse than the screened polls show & the unpopularity of obamacare/tax is very evident. He has shown he is clearly in over his head and has the country divided farther apart than I can ever remember. Gas @ $4/gallon now & probably rising and he gives a big NO to the Keystone pipeline. Better get that Hawaiian estate ready for occupancy!