The population debate must not be defined by immigration
A relentless focus on net migration disguises the real challenges around population growth.
By Sarah Mulley Published 06 September 2012 12:25
Today’s parliamentary debate on population is really about immigration. This is both because net migration is a significant driver of UK population increases, and because reduced immigration is the key demand of the e-petition which sparked the debate, and of those proposing the motion. It is not clear whether those who are promoting the "no to 70m" proposition are themselves really driven by a concern about population increases and their effects; or whether they are really more concerned about immigration (or about particular kinds of immigration). It certainly seems unlikely that they would be in favour of more immigration if British emigration suddenly increased, or the British birth rate suddenly dropped.
In effect, this is a debate about the government’s net migration target, which itself only really makes sense if the driving concern is population. The most recent estimates suggest that net migration is running at well over 200,000 a year. The government’s target is to reduce that to less than 100,000 a year. Those who support the "no to 70m" proposition are calling for net migration of less than 40,000 a year (and, in many cases, for net migration of zero).
Leaving aside the fact that the existing net migration target is looking impossible to meet, that in the current context, net migration could only be cut to the levels demanded by the "no to 70m" camp at huge economic cost, and that those supporting the motion have no clear account of the policies that would be required to cut net migration so drastically, it is worth considering the population and net migration debate on its own merits.
The argument that any particular population level is a problem per se is clearly incoherent (why 70 million? Why not 80 million, or 40 million (as called for by Population Matters)?). The more sensible debate is about population increase (pace of change) and distribution, and the attendant issues. Those issues are real ones – housing, congestion, the allocation of funds to public services. But none are well served by a policy driven entirely by a net migration (or population) target, for at least two reasons.
The first is that a focus on overall net migration (or total population) can hide all sorts of different trends with different impacts and effects. For example, if immigration of ten million a year was matched by emigration of ten million a year then net migration would be zero, but the effects of the resulting population "churn" would almost certainly be negative. Similarly, if the emigration of one million high-skilled workers was matched by the immigration of one million low-skilled workers, then the UK might well be worse off as a result.
The second is that most of the impacts of population growth are local or regional, rather than national. A national net migration target does nothing to address local or regional population pressures. If London received net international migration of one million and Scotland received net international emigration of one million in the same year, then net migration would be zero but the consequences for both London and Scotland would likely be negative.
We should have a political and policy debate about population. It should be a debate about the rate of population growth and the distribution of population in the UK. It should be a debate about housing, and transport, and energy, and water, and public services, and how we manage an ageing population, and any number of other things. It should not be a debate about whether the UK population should be 70 million (or 60 million, or 40 million).
We should also have a political and policy debate about immigration. It should be a debate about the pace and nature of migration flows to and from the UK. It should be about jobs and wages, and economic growth, and public services, and culture, and community, and a whole range of other issues. It should not be a debate about whether net migration to the UK should be 100,000 a year (or 40,000, or zero).
None of this is to deny the connection between migration and population, of course, but when the population debate becomes all about immigration, and the immigration debate becomes all about population, then both are limited and unproductive.
Sarah Mulley is Associate Director for Migration, Trade and Development at IPPR
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21 comments
It is true I think that the right wing (such as it is) is paralysed from discussing immigration in normal terms. That is, how immigration is understood by the normal person: in terms of alienation, displacement, changing the familiar into the unfamiliar and so on. Any attempt by the right to cover these issues will immediately open them to attacks from the left. As the cliche goes, the right lost the cultural war (because conservatives are generally cowards and their principles are too woolly). So, an impasse. The balanced migration or ceiling on immigration is the dishonest result because there is little other option for contemporary politics.
Could you imagine a Conservative (or a Blue Labour) argument regarding immigration from the position of 'community' as our lovely blogger fromthe IPPR phrases it?
No, of course not. What will they come up with? 500,000 people a year coming in, while as many middle class ethnic Britons who can emigrate, do. What was that quote about funeral pyres?
Ha, ha, ha! Where now for the immigration debate indeed!
This author's other article in the comments section lasted for a whole four days before the left mods decided, as the left always has to, that there should be no platform for unwelcome voices! No tolerance for intolerance!
In that time, even a hot topic article on a more thoughtful, left wing site only one person stepped forward to defend the barricades and she was of Dutch passport and assumed non-Dutch ethnicity! She engaged mostly, I am sad to say, in low abuse and mischaracterisations of other's arguments. No one else could be encouraged to participate.
Do you not find it a curious phenomenon, that the supposedly radical left has allied itself with oppressive government in creating a soft-despotic environment in the UK (Google the Spiked article "A police state created by anti-fascists") and the left wing think tanks have allied themselves with the globalist capitalist class in developing economic arguments for greater levels of migration?
Let us therefore be honest to the very few inquisitive members of the left who deign to visit such a backwater page within the NS site:
Modern leftism (and in large measure all past leftism) is an anti-intellectual, anti-freedom and anti-democratic (in this latter case favouring global economic blocs and global organisations to whom national democratic decision making can be removed further from the participation of electorates).
The majority of the electorate if they could see your cherished desires, would despise it on sight, evidenced by in all polls still giving answers that would give the average socialist believer an irresistible urge for full scale involuntary reeducation.
The only toe hold that the left really holds is in academia, in publicly subsidised bodies and by making alliances with the likes of big business who love regulation, open-borders and all the rest.
But, fight on comrades, this time next year we will have crushed all reactionary thought and the future will be golden!
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Do reasonable, compassionate and responsible human beings have a “duty to warn” of looming threats to future human well being and environmental health, and then to sensibly help one another respond ably to the challenges? Or are we to pose as if we are blind, deaf and dumb to the human-driven global predicament looming before all of us and thereby let the least fortunate, most poorly situated and simply unaware among us suffer the consequences?
What we know thanks to well-established scientific knowledge about evolutionary biology, humankind and the finite physical world we inhabit would lead sensible people to conclude that there is precious little that can be done to change the unsustainable ‘trajectory’ of human civilization. So powerful is the force of evolution that we will “do what comes naturally” by continuing to overpopulate the planet and await the next phase of the evolutionary process. So colossal, reckless and relentless, too, is the unbridled expansion of the global political economy now overspreading the surface of Earth and polluting its frangible environment. Even so, hope still resides within that somehow humankind will make use of its singular intelligence and other unique attributes so as to escape the fate that appears ‘as if through a glass darkly’ in the offing, the seemingly certain fate evolution appears to have in store for us. In the face of all that we can see now and here, I continue to believe and to hope that we find adequate ways of consciously, deliberately and effectively doing the right things, according the lights and knowledge we possess, the things which serve to confront and overcome the ‘evolutionary trend’ which seems so irresistible.
Somehow we have to grasp much more adequately the sum and substance of our distinctly human nature, with special attention given to improving our ‘reality orientation’ with regard to such vital issues as human population dynamics. Although relatively small in number, evolutionary biologists and scientists in other fields of research understand what the best available science indicates to us about the skyrocketing growth of absolute global human population numbers in our time. Research of outstanding scientists indicate that the population dynamics of the human species is essentially similar to, not different from, the population dynamics of other species. We have uncontested, apparently unforeseen and unfortunately unwelcome scientific evidence regarding the ‘placement’ of the human species within the order of living things that is everywhere denied; whereas, preternatural theories (eg, Demographic Transition Theory), political ideologies (eg, Conservatism and Liberalism) and economic theologies (eg, neoclassical economics) are deceitfully and ubiquitously presented as supported by the best available science. To elect to extol the virtue of ideas that have been refuted by scientific research cannot be construed as the right thing to do. Even though ‘political correctness’ is predominant and accepted everywhere as what is real and 'all that really matters', when theory, ideology and theology are directly contradicted by cutting-edge scientific knowledge, then that science must be widely shared and consensually validated. Scientific knowledge must come to prevail over spurious theory, self-serving ideology and specious theology.
There are several things we can at least begin to think about: learn how to live without fossil fuels; adapt to the end of economic growth; substitute a steady-state economy for the endless growth economy we have now; stabilize human population numbers worldwide; and deal with the relentless dissipation of Earth's limited resources, the reckless degradation of its environs, the wanton extirpation of its biodiversity as well as confront other human-induced threats to our planetary home as a fit place for human habitation. In any event, I trust most of us can agree that stealing the birthright of children everywhere, mortgaging their future, and exposing them and life as we know it to foreseeable danger cannot somehow be construed as the right things to be doing. We have to think clearly and as keep our wits about us as we move courageously away from outrageous overconsumption, unconscionable hoarding and big-business-as-usual activities to a way of life that embraces true sustainability. Perhaps necessary and positive changes toward more sustainable lifestyles and right-sized corporate enterprises are in the offing.
Our children deserve the likely prospect of a future that is good enough. I am no longer thinking of leaving the children a better world than the one that was given to their elders. That appears out of reach now. It remains my hope that my generation of elders, with unaccepted responsibilities to assume and unfulfilled duties to perform, will do better than we doing now by changing our ways for the sake of keeping Earth fit for habitation by children everywhere. As examples, we could pay our debts instead of mortgage the children’s future; clean up the enormous ecological messes that have been made in the course of the past 65 years; and eschew “bigger is better” as well as “the biggest is the best” in favor of “small is beautiful”, doing more with less, and embracing the spirit of living well by living more simply, sensibly and sustainably. Who knows, the current primrose path to the future could be abandoned before it is too late to make necessary behavior changes to sustainable lifestyles and right-sized enterprises.
Perhaps all of us have been traveling down a long road during the course of my lifetime, a road of rampantly growing production and distribution capabilities, of wanton overconsumption and reckless hoarding, and of unbridled overpopulation of the Earth. These activities had been occurring for hundreds upon hundreds of years on a relatively small and sustainable scale. But only recently did these 'overgrowth activities' explode in willfully uncontrolled ways worldwide without sufficient regard being given by ‘the brightest and best’ either to human limits or Earth’s limitations. An improbable combination of narcissism, arrogance, foolhardiness and greed blinded leadership to the practical requirements of living on Earth; to the “rules of the house” in our planetary home. Many too many leaders decided to behave like kids who were left alone and, tragically, given the run of the house. All house rules were ‘forgotten’ or simply ignored. Laissez faire, whatever will be will be, living without limits and all that ruled! Whatever was viewed as politically convenient and economically expedient was determined to be best thing to do. Of all things, greedmongering was extolled as a virtue. Indeed, the shibboleth of my generation can be summed up in three words, Greed is good.
Behaving like delinquent children, the leading elders and minions shunned the rules of the house and set about ravaging the planet. Yes, they have lead the way and made a big mess of a world they borrow from their children. When some among them realized what they were actually doing and spoke out loudly and clearly, all the planet wreckers immediately felt angry and stuck, as if between a rock and hard place. Do they stop their destructive activities or else choose to keep tearing up the place? This is a tough choice for delinquents. Who knows, perhaps they will not be caught red-handed at what they have been doing. And if they are caught, they could always blame the wreckage on other bad boys. Or they could agree among themselves to point ‘the finger of guilt’ at one another. In this way, as irresponsible derelicts know, no one will be able to tell who did what so that no one can be held accountable. How many times have we seen kids at play and men at work blame their wrongdoing on others and not ever take responsibility for their dishonorable, deceitful or destructive behavior?
Either the choice to turn back and begin the clean-up or the choice to keep tearing things up is fraught with danger. From a kid’s perspective they could face more danger by trying to clean up the messes they made than they would be exposed to by continuing with their rampage. Either choice presents its own challenges and threats. After all, so much damage has already been done to everything that was supposed to be protected and preserved for those who come after us. There is no longer any easy way forward, that is for sure, even in the best circumstances.
Although all of us are implicated in this colossal ecological mess, please note that humanity itself is not the perpetrator of the global predicament looming before all of us. Self-proclaimed masters of the universe among us bear primary responsibility for what is happening. Sad to say, these dishonest and duplicitous perpetrators of the gigantic mess have successfully arranged things, they believe, so as not to have any "skin in the game" being played out on Earth in our time. Perhaps they have chosen to secure and satiate themselves for the moment.....and blow off their children's future. Come what may.
With or without the narrow subject of immigration, the colossal global challenge to humanity that is posed by the current size and anticipated increase of the human population on the surface of Earth has got to be acknowledged, addressed and overcome. Billions more people in our finite and frangible planetary home will inevitably become unsustainable in the not too distant future..... and likely sooner rather than later. If the children and coming generations are to have a mere chance for a good life in a place fit for human habitation, then their elders need to do things differently from the way we are doing things now. To think that we can keep up the present rate of per-capita overconsumption, rampant overproduction and unbridled overpopulation with the expectation what is happening now will not keep on happening is one definition of insanity. Unsustainable living now leads to an unsustainable future. If we want to 'change course' toward a sustainable future , then we must not continue overconsuming, overproducing and overpopulating in our planetary home.
On our watch, the human family appears to be unknowingly precipitating a planetary emergency with potentially profound implications for the future of life as we know it on Earth. If a human-driven global emergency is in fact looming before humankind, then it is incumbent upon those leaders in my generation of elders to take the measure of the admittedly huge, complicated and interlocking global ecological challenges that are so distinctly human-forced, so forbiddingly emergent and so rapidly convergent in our time. The extent to which the global predicament already visible on the horizon is derived directly from unbridled overconsumption, overproduction and overpopulation activities of the human species, there can be no doubt that human beings can make such changes in our behavioral repertoire as can humanely alter this dangerous 'trajectory' of our presently and soon to become patently unsustainable activities. That is to say, global threats to future human well being and environmental health that are currently induced by humankind can certainly be recognized, confronted and eventually overcome by the family of humanity. But such necessary change cannot occur, I suppose, without making such behavior changes as are needed to move the human community away from growing an "economic colossus" (ie, global political economy), based on the rampaging increase of unbridled human overconsumption, overproduction and overpopulation activities, toward adopting sustainable individual lifestyles and right-sizing "too big to fail/too big to succeed" corporate enterprises.
Please imagine our human-forced global predicament as a rope made from three strands: human consumption, production and population. Because overpopulation, overproduction and overconsumption activities by the human species are occurring synergistically and on such a gigantic and unsustainable scale, taking hold of one of the strands will not change the course of events. All three strands will have to be simultaneously grasped carefully, skillfully and humanely somehow. What appears before us is a super ordinate challenge.
Much more intellectual honesty, moral courage and humanistic action is needed. For the first time in history, last Fall 7 billion overconsumers, overproducers and overpopulaters were living on a planet where limited resources can be seen dissipating and environs can be seen degrading rapidly. As we observe absolute global human population numbers continue to soar exponentially, despite reduced fertiliy rates in many places, we also recognize that never in the course of human events have so few taken so much from so many and determined to leave so little for others.
A planet with the size, composition and environs of Earth may not be able to sustain much longer the economic and population growth that is occurring on our watch. Perhaps necessary changes away from unsustainable, distinctly human overgrowth activities and toward a sustainable way of living in the world.
Think globally while there is still time and act locally before it is too late for human action to make any difference in the clear and presently dangerous course of unfolding human-induced ecological events occurring in our planetary home. There is no more time to waste and much to do fast.
Thank you.
Steven Earl Salmony
AWAREness Campaign on The Human Population, established 2001
Chapel Hill, NC
The elephant in the room:
HOW HAS MASS IMMIGRATION BENEFITTED THE WHITE WORKING CLASSES??
I hear Grey squirrels do not like the red squirrels from taking over their land.
And they have not been allowed a vote on it.
and if they suggest any comment against mass immigration without controls are deemed racist - even if they have not mention either red or grey.
Seems the people that u e the race word when there was not one prior are racist themselves as are using race as a lever to stop democracy.
Thought I would distort the real issue as the media always do, as we know the red are the endangered species. But we have to defend the grey squirrels as hey it is only proper they overpopulate and take all rights away from the red squirrels.
I just knew there was no chance of a reasoned debate about this subject. Sarah Mulley tries very hard to imply that those who have brought the debate to Westminister are a bunch of racists without the guts to say so directly.
then the usual racists that inhabit these pages in the form of Tory Troll, Pavlova and of course the biggest bigot of them all Robert Taggart and truly drag it into the gutter.
The debate both here and in Westminister should be about the fact that we are the most densely populated country in Europe, with no capacity to cope with our current population, no housing being built, and the worse possible collection of MPs from the three main parties I have ever seen with no ideal how to sort it. Give Branson a call and ask him nicely to sort it for them!
What a load of left wing sh*te. Mass imigration is not a good thing, it really isn't. It is putting huge pressure on local authorities, driving down wages for the working class, most people do not want it and it costs us a fortune. Of course its not all the liberal w*n*kers who want it that are affected as the vast of majority of the immigrants are unskilled and do not compete in their jobs market.They are also mostly placed in working class areas and not wealthy ones where wealthy liberals live so their communities are not changed by it.
The left have stifled debate on immigration for as long as i can remember by name calling and putting fingers in their ears. Everyone who speaks out against extremist Islam is an Islamaphobe, anyone opposed to immigration is a racist. They have a name for everyone. We do not need more ditch diggers, security guards or people to work as waiters in carry outs!
We should adopt a points system like Australia where you only gain entry if you have skills we need and that way we weed out economic migrants who contribute next to nothing. Secondly, all immigrants should be placed in areas with large populations of the liberal left, lets see how they like it. Thirdly, you should have to have been in the country for a minimum time and have contributed through employment before you are entitled to one penny help from the state,Fourthly, in cases of people fleeing persecution you should not be able to pick and choose whre you want to go so the distance people have travelled to get here and whether they could have gone to suitable countries bordering their own should be looked at. I am by no means anti muslim ( only the nutters) but it is a fact that 75% of all female mmuslim immigrants nver work and 50% of all male muslim immigrants never work.
I do not think any of what i have said is racist. It strikes me as fair minded common sense, apart from maybe placing immigrants in posh areas but I would love to see how the people there like it.
Yeah, lets ignore the facts and talk about somthing else , that will work - DOH, typical lefty crap.
spot on Anthony, by failing to speak honestly about immigration bigoted cnuts like you get a chance to spread their wings a little.
make the most of it.
For quite literally as far back as I can remember, the British left has simply sought to close down any debate on immigration and its downside by simply ignoring any of its huge downside, trying to change the subject, putting their fingers in their ears and saying "Im not listening, I'm not listening" and screaming "waaaaycist" at anyone who points out that mass non European immigration has basically been a very bad thing.
All of the social problems facing London and the south east: the phenomonal crime rates in the inner city, the virtual collapse of the state educational system in the inner boroughs, the white flight to the burbs and satellite towns, the environmental degraedation, the population pressure on the green belt - all of these problems are being driven or massively exacerbated by mass immigration.. My home town is now a third world pesthole.
"Im not listening, I'm not listening"
apart from the odd back bencher this has also been the Tory line. seriously TT, how else does one explain away UKIP? Tories have been just as spineless in the face of the media as the Left. there's been very little between them in real terms.
btw your 2nd paragraph is hysterical tripe. imho of course...
We are taking over and there is nothing you can or will do about it. Inshallah.
ffs
at least come up with a believable fake name....twat.
40% of under fives in Manchester are non UK born!
the pressing issue is the continued failure of a meaningful debate about immigration, which gives enormous impetus to the more extreme sections of society to hijack the issue and turn it into a vote winner.
in my country, Holland, the main parties have successfully managed over the last few decades to totally avoid talking about immigration. the result of which is the rise of Wilders, a truly dangerous nasty cnut. 20% of Dutch voters chose him last time round, and i have a hunch he will do even better next time.
this is what happens when our 'leaders' stick their heads in the sand, and when news outlets insist there's not all that much to discuss. this is not a sensible option, we must discuss all facets openly including immigration.
Population growth and immigration are inextricably linked, poorly educated immigrants from S.E. Asia, one of our key immigrant populations, have a much higher birthrate than others. All classes of Asians prefer to marry other Asians and I know of numerous well integrated and professional people who returned home to find a spouse, it's the norm. I know of several others who have parents staying with them on long stay holidays that seem to go on for half a year or more. Until recently they sponsored extended family to move here. I also see them supporting a lively illegal immigration black market with fairly bogus student sandwich courses and employing cash inhand labourers earning under minimum wage who speak no English. They see it as helping friends, family and others Asians out. For every valid immigrant, there are a lot of peripheral people that are added to the population.
You can understand Liebores unease over this matter...
How else do you explain their electing an alien to be their leader ?!