NHS doesn't stand for "National High Street"

Providers in the new NHS must be free to integrate care in the patient interest, even if this has the effect of reducing competition argues Chris Hopson, the new chief executive of the Foundation Trust Network.

On the High Street, competition law creates a competitive market by ensuring a range of different suppliers, fostering competition based on price, avoiding monopolies and probing vertical integration in the supply chain (for example, supermarkets owning dairies).

But there are other models for preserving the consumer interest which recognise that certain areas of our national life have specific characteristics that require a different approach.

Last month, for example, saw a highly publicised row between two train operating companies bidding for a long term, monopoly, franchise. The franchise deliberately runs for long enough to enable the operator to earn a sufficient return on the expensive infrastructure needed to provide a quality customer service.

Last month also saw the closure of the football transfer window, which restricts the times when clubs can buy new players. Clubs also now have to abide by new Financial Fair Play rules which are designed to create a level playing field by restricting the amount of money wealthy owners can invest to "buy success".

What does all this have to do with the NHS? The Health and Social Care Act, passed earlier this year, marks the next stage in the journey away from a single, all encompassing, command and control health service. It continues work begun by the previous Labour administration to create a more plural system where, in some areas of care, a wider range of providers compete to provide services for patients. As a result, patients have greater choice rather than, for example, being forced to use the closest NHS hospital.

But the health sector is not the High Street. Competition is based on quality, not price, with the price of an increasing range of treatments determined by a single tariff, to be set in future by a central Commissioning Board and the sector regulator. There also needs to be a strong emphasis on integrating care, defined by the NHS Future Forum as "integration around the patient, not the system". The Forum went on to argue that "outcomes, incentives and system rules (i.e. competition and choice) need to be aligned accordingly".

It's easy to see why integrating care is so important. An 80 year old frail patient with multiple problems needs a joined-up network of acute and primary care services where geriatricians, nurses, physiotherapists, and podiatrists all understand the individual patient's needs, and the care provided has no gaps - an integrated care pathway.

Diabetic patients in Bolton now have a centre staffed by specialists that care for inpatients at the local hospital but also care for patients at home by working with GPs. The very GPs who, in future, are likely to have commissioned the centre to provide this service. Elderly patients in several Surrey care homes are visited by hospital based geriatricians who advise staff and help to prevent patients being admitted to hospital unnecessarily.

These are all examples of good, joined-up, care: benefitting individual patients, reducing cost and providing better value for money for the taxpayer. But they do involve integration across the NHS, between different organisations that may be commissioning or competing with each other to provide services. Some might argue this reduces competition.

The Foundation Trust Network, which represents the vast majority of acute, mental health, community and ambulance providers in the NHS, is co-hosting fringe sessions at all the party conferences to explore how the NHS can achieve the right balance between integration and competition. It's an important question as the detailed rules for the new NHS are finalised over the next six months.

We'll also be particularly focussed on the importance of the NHS sustaining a flourishing and vibrant set of public providers over the longer term. The way the new rules are formulated will have a crucial impact here. If we get them wrong, there's a danger, to focus on another cause celebre in the competition world, that these organisations could turn into the dairy farmers of the healthcare sector. They might end up working for payments that do not cover costs; forced to sign up to short term contracts that offer no incentive to invest in innovations that improve quality and efficiency and facing an uncertain financial future.

Chris Hopson is the chief executive of the Foundation Trust Network

Photograph: Getty Images
Photo: Getty
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Who will win in Stoke-on-Trent?

Labour are the favourites, but they could fall victim to a shock in the Midlands constituency.  

The resignation of Tristram Hunt as MP for Stoke-on-Central has triggered a by-election in the safe Labour seat of Stoke on Trent Central. That had Westminster speculating about the possibility of a victory for Ukip, which only intensified once Paul Nuttall, the party’s leader, was installed as the candidate.

If Nuttall’s message that the Labour Party has lost touch with its small-town and post-industrial heartlands is going to pay dividends at the ballot box, there can hardly be a better set of circumstances than this: the sitting MP has quit to take up a well-paid job in London, and although  the overwhelming majority of Labour MPs voted to block Brexit, the well-advertised divisions in that party over the vote should help Ukip.

But Labour started with a solid lead – it is always more useful to talk about percentages, not raw vote totals – of 16 points in 2015, with the two parties of the right effectively tied in second and third place. Just 33 votes separated Ukip in second from the third-placed Conservatives.

There was a possible – but narrow – path to victory for Ukip that involved swallowing up the Conservative vote, while Labour shed votes in three directions: to the Liberal Democrats, to Ukip, and to abstention.

But as I wrote at the start of the contest, Ukip were, in my view, overwritten in their chances of winning the seat. We talk a lot about Labour’s problem appealing to “aspirational” voters in Westminster, but less covered, and equally important, is Ukip’s aspiration problem.

For some people, a vote for Ukip is effectively a declaration that you live in a dump. You can have an interesting debate about whether it was particularly sympathetic of Ken Clarke to brand that party’s voters as “elderly male people who have had disappointing lives”, but that view is not just confined to pro-European Conservatives. A great number of people, in Stoke and elsewhere, who are sympathetic to Ukip’s positions on immigration, international development and the European Union also think that voting Ukip is for losers.

That always made making inroads into the Conservative vote harder than it looks. At the risk of looking very, very foolish in six days time, I found it difficult to imagine why Tory voters in Hanley would take the risk of voting Ukip. As I wrote when Nuttall announced his candidacy, the Conservatives were, in my view, a bigger threat to Labour than Ukip.

Under Theresa May, almost every move the party has made has been designed around making inroads into the Ukip vote and that part of the Labour vote that is sympathetic to Ukip. If the polls are to be believed, she’s succeeding nationally, though even on current polling, the Conservatives wouldn’t have enough to take Stoke on Trent Central.

Now Theresa May has made a visit to the constituency. Well, seeing as the government has a comfortable majority in the House of Commons, it’s not as if the Prime Minister needs to find time to visit the seat, particularly when there is another, easier battle down the road in the shape of the West Midlands mayoral election.

But one thing is certain: the Conservatives wouldn’t be sending May down if they thought that they were going to do worse than they did in 2015.

Parties can be wrong of course. The Conservatives knew that they had found a vulnerable spot in the last election as far as a Labour deal with the SNP was concerned. They thought that vulnerable spot was worth 15 to 20 seats. They gained 27 from the Liberal Democrats and a further eight from Labour.  Labour knew they would underperform public expectations and thought they’d end up with around 260 to 280 seats. They ended up with 232.

Nevertheless, Theresa May wouldn’t be coming down to Stoke if CCHQ thought that four days later, her party was going to finish fourth. And if the Conservatives don’t collapse, anyone betting on Ukip is liable to lose their shirt. 

Stephen Bush is special correspondent at the New Statesman. His daily briefing, Morning Call, provides a quick and essential guide to British politics.