Labour surges to a 15-point lead, but there's a catch

60% of voters still prefer Cameron as Prime Minister to Miliband.

The latest Times/Populus survey (£) is the most striking poll we've seen for months. It gives Labour a 15-point advantage over the Tories (45 to 30), the largest lead that any pollster has shown for the party in this parliament. If repeated on a uniform swing at a general election, those figures would send Ed Miliband to Downing Street with a majority of 136 seats.

But there's a catch. When asked whether they would rather have Cameron as prime minister or Miliband, just 31 per cent said they wanted the Labour leader, with 60 per cent preferring Cameron (a rise of four per cent since June). Of those who chose Cameron, 23 per cent said this was because they were happy with the job he is doing, while 37 per cent said they were unhappy but still preferred him to Miliband.

But this is a parliamentary system, you say, why should we care? The answer is that personal ratings are frequently a better long-term indicator of the election result than voting intentions. Labour often led the Tories under Neil Kinnock, for instance (sometimes by as much as 24 points), but Kinnock was never rated above John Major as a potential prime minister. A more recent example is the 2011 Scottish parliament election, which saw Alex Salmond ranked above Iain Gray even as Labour led in the polls. The final result, of course, was an SNP majority.

By the time of the election, when opposition parties come under greater scrutiny and governments tend to claw back support (as was the case in 2010), the Tories will hope that Cameron's superior personal ratings (if they last) will give them the edge. For all the opprobrium heaped on him by the right, it's a reminder that the PM is still an electoral asset for his party.

Labour leads the Conservatives by 15 points, its largest lead since the election. Photograph: Getty Images.

George Eaton is political editor of the New Statesman.

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The Lib Dems' troubled start doesn't bode well for them

Rows over homosexuality and anti-Semitism are obscuring the party's anti-Brexit stance.

Tim Farron has broken his silence on the question of whether or not gay sex is a sin. (He doesn't.)

Frankly, this isn't the start to the general election campaign that the Liberal Democrats would have wanted. Time that they hoped would be spent talking about how their man was the only one standing up to Brexit has instead been devoted to what Farron thinks about homosexuality.

Now another row may be opening up, this time about anti-Semitism in the Liberal Democrats after David Ward, the controversial former MP who among other things once wrote that "the Jews" were "within a few years of liberation from the death camps...inflicting atrocities on Palestinians" has been re-selected as their candidate in Bradford East. That action, for many, makes a mockery of Farron's promise that his party would be a "warm home" for the community.

Politically, my hunch is that people will largely vote for the Liberal Democrats at this election because of who they're not: a Conservative party that has moved to the right on social issues and is gleefully implementing Brexit, a riven Labour party led by Jeremy Corbyn, etc. But both rows have hobbled Farron's dream that his party would use this election.

More importantly, they've revealed something about the Liberal Democrats and their ability to cope under fire. There's a fierce debate ongoing about whether or not what Farron's beliefs should matter at all. However you come down on that subject, it's been well-known within the Liberal Democrats that there were questions around not only Farron's beliefs but his habit of going missing for votes concerning homosexuality and abortion. It was even an issue, albeit one not covered overmuch by the press, in the 2015 Liberal Democrat leadership election. The leadership really ought to have worked out a line that would hold long ago, just as David Cameron did in opposition over drugs. (Readers with long memories will remember that Cameron had a much more liberal outlook on drugs policy as an MP than he did after he became Conservative leader.)

It's still my expectation that the Liberal Democrats will have a very good set of local elections. At that point, expect the full force of the Conservative machine and their allies in the press to turn its fire on Farron and his party. We've had an early stress test of the Liberal Democrats' strength under fire. It doesn't bode well for what's to come.

Stephen Bush is special correspondent at the New Statesman. His daily briefing, Morning Call, provides a quick and essential guide to British politics.

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