The Staggers

The New Statesman’s rolling politics blog

Syndicate contentRSS

Would the Tories win with Boris as leader?

That is the question Tory MPs are asking this morning.

A Conservative Party led by Boris Johnson?
A Conservative Party led by Boris Johnson would reduce Labour's poll lead to a point. Photograph: Getty Images.

One should always be wary of polls showing that a political party would perform better under an alternative leader. Voters have a habit of favouring would-be leaders until the moment they're actually in charge. But in the current climate, it's unsurprising that a YouGov poll showing that a Boris Johnson-led Conservative Party would reduce Labour's poll lead to just one point (as opposed to six under "a Cameron-led party") has caused much excitement among Tories this morning.

As Rafael has argued, such findings have more to do with discontent with Cameron than they do with adoration for Johnson, but it is still striking that the number of voters believing that Boris is "well suited" to the job of prime minister has risen from 24 per cent in May to 36 per cent now. As the election draws closer, Tory MPs will pay even more attention to Boris's polling numbers. ConservativeHome editor Tim Montgomerie predicts in today's City AM that "Boris will become Tory leader before the next election if Conservative MPs conclude that they won't keep their seats with David Cameron still in place."

The Mayor's success in winning re-election in a Labour-voting city (even at the 2010 election, Labour outpolled the Tories by 36.6 per cent to 34.5 per cent) has convinced some Tories that he can reach those parts of the electorate that Cameron cannot. As I have noted before, it was Boris who won the London mayoral election, not Ken who lost it. Despite claims that he was a drag on Labour, Livingstone finished just 0.8 per cent behind his party. The reality, perhaps, is that any Labour candidate would have struggled against Boris, who successfully detached himself from the Conservatives and retained his unrivalled personal appeal. Whether he could replicate this feat on a national level (and I, like Rafael, doubt he could) is now the key question for the Tories.

25 comments

Michael Dixon's picture

The answer is no.

Right wing, Romney-loving commentators like Tim Montgomerie on the conservativehome website, along with many of the UKIP impostors and home county conservatives, who add their comments to it, cannot stand Cameron. For New Statesman readers who think that Cameron is beyond the pale on conservativehome he is regarded as left-wing, liberal or a socialist. And that is nothing comapred to what they say about Kenneth Clarke.

So Boris is the their latest hope to unseat Cameron or if not undermine him. It used to be David Davis until he suddenly resigned in a pique. Not the type to have his finger on the nuclear button.

And neither is Boris.

To his credit Cameron lets this kind of intrigue just go over his head, unlike Brown who would be pacing the corridors at 4am or throwing things at people. So the Blair/Brown comparison is a non-starter.

I like Boris from a distance; he entertains. But he will go no further, unless Cameron has a disastrous 2015 general election result and the Conservative Party applies the knife. But he won't because his opponent as the alternative Prime Minister is Ed Miliband

Leftout's picture

I agree with the previous comment: I have seen Boris Johnson in action and what struck me most was his populism: he seemed desperate to play the crowd - and spent much of the time trying - yet was completely lacking on substantive policy. But behind his gagtastic comments was a thinly veiled, very rightwing agenda that his frippery and puerile behaviour was designed to conceal. In short, Boris is a dangerous populist who feeds off crowds like a leech and who - like most populists - portrays himself as something of a maverick saviour in tune with the people. The Conservatives will rue the day they put power in this man's hands.

Marcus Bessner's picture

Despite your remarks that it was Boris who won the mayoralty election and not Ken who lost it the reverse is true. Ken lost it because people got tired of him as people do get tired of less than charismatic politicians. It was Labour's organisation in London which got Ken to the narrow margins with Boris. People are getting tired of Boris's idiocy too. His star is on the wain. He's a proven liar - possibly an essential characteristic for a successful politician - and his use of a pseud eurosceptic stance for political gain has shown him to be a cheap demagogue with a posh Etonian accent. Boris's primary interest is in the bucks that he hauls in whatever way he can; he enjoys being an idiot and milks his comedy status for all it is worth. While the British public wallows in its euroscepticism Boris will lead in the polls but very soon there will be the sounds of the whingeing Brits asking to be allowed to join the euro when at the abolition of the tax havens a plummeting sterling will cause stagflation .

Marcus Bessner's picture

Despite your remarks that it was Boris who won the mayoralty election and not Ken who lost it the reverse is true. Ken lost it because people got tired of him as people do get tired of less than charismatic politicians. It was Labour's organisation in London which got Ken to the narrow margins with Boris. People are getting tired of Boris's idiocy too. His star is on the wain. He's a proven liar - possibly an essential characteristic for a successful politician - and his use of a pseud eurosceptic stance for political gain has shown him to be a cheap demagogue with a posh Etonian accent. Boris's primary interest is in the bucks that he hauls in whatever way he can; he enjoys being an idiot and milks his comedy status for all it is worth. While the British public wallows in its euroscepticism Boris will lead in the polls but very soon there will be the sounds of the whingeing Brits asking to be allowed to join the euro when at the abolition of the tax havens a plummeting sterling will cause stagflation .

Marcus Bessner's picture

Despite your remarks that it was Boris who won the mayoralty election and not Ken who lost it the reverse is true. Ken lost it because people got tired of him as people do get tired of less than charismatic politicians. It was Labour's organisation in London which got Ken to the narrow margins with Boris. People are getting tired of Boris's idiocy too. His star is on the wain. He's a proven liar - possibly an essential characteristic for a successful politician - and his use of a pseud eurosceptic stance for political gain has shown him to be a cheap demagogue with a posh Etonian accent. Boris's primary interest is in the bucks that he hauls in whatever way he can; he enjoys being an idiot and milks his comedy status for all it is worth. While the British public wallows in its euroscepticism Boris will lead in the polls but very soon there will be the sounds of the whingeing Brits asking to be allowed to join the euro when at the abolition of the tax havens a plummeting sterling will cause stagflation .

Marcus Bessner's picture

Despite your remarks that it was Boris who won the mayoralty election and not Ken who lost it the reverse is true. Ken lost it because people got tired of him as people do get tired of less than charismatic politicians. It was Labour's organisation in London which got Ken to the narrow margins with Boris. People are getting tired of Boris's idiocy too. His star is on the wain. He's a proven liar - possibly an essential characteristic for a successful politician - and his use of a pseud eurosceptic stance for political gain has shown him to be a cheap demagogue with a posh Etonian accent. Boris's primary interest is in the bucks that he hauls in whatever way he can; he enjoys being an idiot and milks his comedy status for all it is worth. While the British public wallows in its euroscepticism Boris will lead in the polls but very soon there will be the sounds of the whingeing Brits asking to be allowed to join the euro when at the abolition of the tax havens a plummeting sterling will cause stagflation .

Hariklia's picture

So Winston Churchill is in the same grouping as Nelson Mandela? And not Hitler?

I wonder what Mandela would have thought about being lumped in with a man who was so totally determined to reinstate King George of Greece in order to protect British interests that he set out to provoke and then destroy the Greek Resistance, who had the cheek to ask for democracy.

Churchill and the British orchestrated and oversaw a chain of events, including the invasion of Greece by British troops, December clashes of 194 (sparked off by the shooting at an unarmed but 250,000 strong demonstration) which led to the far-right White Terror, civil war and then a serious of right-wing to fascist govenments. (There were also huge demonstrations in Trafalgar Square against Churchill's actions, and many questions in the House.)

And in case anyone thinks that Britain was nobly saving Greece from communism, they should read the relevant F.O correspondence - references to the importance of the monarchy to British interests outweigh those to communism by several hundered to one.

Give me Boris over Churchill any day!

Rev Graeme Hancocks's picture

It amazes me that people are taken in by this ridiculous populist showman. We Brits used to wonder how the Italians taken in by Silvio B. Shows the limits of democracy and the idiocy of electors - after all democracy has produced as Many Silvio B's, Boris Johnson's, George Galloway's, George Bush's - dare I say it even Aodlf Hitler's - who transfix and mesmorize people. as it has Nelson Mandela's, Ang Dang Suu's, Clement Atlee's and Winston Churchill's.

Swavesey Sage's picture

Well, he got rid of the bendy buses, seems rather in tune with Conservative thinking about modern Britain, and is not tainted by association with the awful Clegg. However, he is not an MP.......and I don't see any vacant seats with safe majority arising. Therefore, I conclude it is unlikely that Cameron will be defenestrated.

hugh markey's picture

This looks a lot like the Tony Blair/Gordon Brown syndrome. Oh,what larks. Two old Etonians struggling to be opening-bat in school first eleven.
Just so long as they play the game, old chap. Play the game!

House Master

hugh markey's picture

This looks a lot like the Tony Blair/Gordon Brown syndrome. Oh,what larks. Two old Etonians struggling to be opening-bat in school first eleven.
Just so long as they play the game, old chap. Play the game!

House Master

Herbert's picture

He'd have to end austerity though, wouldn't it? I mean, it's the austerity the voters can't stand, isn't it?

matthew fox's picture

Boris is a buffoon, we saw that with the phone hacking. What record does Boris want to run on, he holds down two highly paid jobs, sacked from the shadow cabinet and cheated on his wife.

Jimminy-Wicket's picture

I doubt it very much as he is a born showman!!

Paul Hancock's picture

Yes. A country cannot have a leader who cannot pronounce his r's correctly.

The grand old Duke of talk's picture

I remember Nick Clegg was popular once too. I imagine people would be stupid enough to vote for him as long as they all have their jobs, hope, a future. It would be one of those silly frivolous actions. I don't think the full force of conservative nastiness could hide behind his swagger for long though.

Gaz's picture

Can anyone tell me what he has achieved as London mayor? Seriously??

mbrecker's picture

No.

swatantra's picture

It could very easily happen if the electorate were to suffer a periodic moment of madness. But they'd soon live to regret it. Johnson is a populist and will use any trick in the book to promote himself, like yesterdays stunt of hanging from a yardarm; SUN readers like that sort of thing, in the same way they lap up those awful headlines; subeditors must have used up all the puns by now. Sir Winston was a posh boy and changed Parties several times and was an opportunist, yet the ordinary working class blokes loved him even when they got pummelled in the Great Strike of '26. Its a strange world. Follow Sir Winstons career and you've got Borises.

Arturo Bandini's picture

What on Earth do people find appealing about Boris Johnson?

I feel like I'm taking crazy pills!

SimonMW's picture

I've always maintained Labour and Lib Dems shouldn't underestimate Boris.

For a long time, I think he was considered a buffoon, but his time as Mayor has shown him in a different light for people - two successive terms shows that.

I think beneath the floppy hair and apparent theater which seems to define every appearance, there's a serious politician who can resonate with the public.

He's already opposed policies of the government, such as plans to push working class people out of central London and is known to be quite liberal, so perhaps has the potential to sway floating more left wing voters towards him too.

Steve AM's picture

When the Tories talk like this you just know Cameron is finished.

Tony Mills's picture

Sounds just like the start of the Cameron train when he impressed with his articulate candidate speech at the Tory conference and look how that turned out. Thanks for spot-on analysis (also v funny) this week.

mike cobley's picture

Just what the nation needs, another posh boy in charge.

Kershan's picture

So ... you don't know either. Just headline would have sufficed!

Latest tweets