David Cameron has once again cheekily invoked the Chartist democracy movement from the 1830s and 1840s as a justification for his boundary changes. The Chartists did indeed demand equal constituencies, but there was no banner at Kennington in 1848 reading "Equal constituencies for all! No variation of more than five per cent in registered electorate (with the exceptions of the Isle of Wight, Orkney & Shetland and Na h-Eileanan An Iar)". Even after the Great Reform Act of 1832 there were still differences in constituency electorate of the order of 100:1, and huge systematic differences between industrial areas and market towns. It is insulting to compare the previous work of the Boundary Commission, which has produced more or less equal constituencies, with the grotesque differences that existed at the time of the Chartists.
When the Chartists complained about unequal-sized constituencies, they were thinking about gross injustices like the 243 electors of Andover in Hampshire having two MPs between them in 1847, the same representation as the 23,630 electors of Lancashire (Southern). A few odd cases like the Isle of Wight and Orkney & Shetland are hardly in the same league. The "Chartist" argument also ignores the differences between adult population and the number of people on the electoral register. This was, of course, enormous in 1847 – but more or less a match by the 1970s. Since then, particularly since 2000, there have been increasing numbers of people left off the electoral registers – this time not through deliberate legal disqualification but because the machinery cannot keep pace with the speed at which some people move house, and the alienation of young people in particular from any official channels. Cameron’s intentions have very little to do with progressive political reform.
The problem of the difference between registered electors and the real number of people in a locality entitled to vote is acute. The worst-affected are the young, the poor and socially marginal; already in 2010 the average Labour constituency in England probably had more people qualified to be on the register than the average Tory seat. This is likely to get worse, because a more complicated and expensive system of individual electoral registration is being introduced from 2014. The government’s new law on boundaries requires a disruptive boundary review every parliament, and the next one may take place in 2015 on the basis of particularly inaccurate electoral registers.
It is worth recapitulating what the new boundaries mean, and how they compare internationally. Other than in a few exceptions granted for islands, constituencies will now have to be within five per cent of the UK average size, i.e. between 72,810 and 80,473 electors on the register in December 2010. This may sound reasonable, but it is the most extreme implementation of "equal size" in a national legislature that uses single-member districts.
There are two broad dimensions to equalising constituencies.
- What to do with the anomalies – islands and national minorities – and how many particularly small or large constituencies should be tolerated because they are special cases.
- The level of uniformity imposed on the majority of "normal" cases.
The government’s bill requires that over 99 per cent of constituencies are within five per cent of the national quota (the exceptions being two Scottish island seats and perhaps one in the Highlands). No other comparable legislature hits 90 per cent. In terms of the overall deviation from the standard size, the government’s proposal is twice as "equalised" as the US House of Representatives.
It is worth asking why, despite legal and constitutional rules about equality, Australia and the United States fail to equalise their constituencies.
The answer is that both countries respect the boundaries of their component states and territories when drawing national legislative districts. Australia divides its 150 House seats into eight states and territories, and the US House of 435 is divided into 50 state delegations. Some states in each country are small – seven American states have single seats, and five more an allocation of two seats. The result is that Montana comprises a single Congressional district of 994,416 people, while the slightly bigger state of Rhode Island has two small districts with around 527,623 people in each. Ten voters in Rhode Island have the same voting power as 18 Montanans – a bigger variation than the divergence Nick Clegg called "deeply damaging to our democracy" back in 2010. I am pleased that he seems to have changed his mind.




















15 comments
Perhaps Cameron should go to the country on a 'We are trying to make things better for you but the Lib Dems won't let us, give us a mandate and we'll look after you' ticket.
This is a parody yeah?
Our glorious brothers wanted equality!
But wait , this works for Labour now so we're equal enough thank you.
It's odd really.
What a can of worms. Trust Cameron, whose advisers have yet again failed to prepare his homework( or whatever they call it at Eton ), to drop in it from a great height.
Our main concern - 'How many votes has the City(of London)?
'Rotten' Idea
I often avoided registering to vote because I couldn't afford to pay council tax. If like many young people you keep moving house you can often slip through the net. I also once had to do jury service, and this at some times would have caused problems with my employers (the reality is out of step with the theory that jobs are protected - less so in any industry with a lot of temporary short term contracts).
Anyway. Glad this piece of shameless Gerrymandering will likely fail.
Something still needs to be done to reform the electoral system. Just what exactly I don't know. Some form of PR seems best but has it's detractors. I don't agree it matters much to have a local MP. And 'strong' governments can lead to catastrophic policies continuing in the face of massive public opposition. This coalition has been pretty 'strong' in the face of public dissent too, so I don't see PR being any worse overall.
> why, despite legal and constitutional rules about equality, Australia and the United States fail to equalise their constituencies"
The simple answer is that Australia has no such "constitutional rules about equality". In 1975 and 1996, the High Court rejected arguments that "directly chosen by the people" required equal electoral districts. At most it rules out an electoral college (and possibly party lists), and prevents Parliament from widening bans on prisoners voting.
At the statutory rather than the constitutional level, and taking into account that every state must have a whole number of federal seats (and at least 5), Australia has legislated for very strict equality. Districts within each State must be within 10% of the average when redrawn, and the Electoral Commission must aim for a projected disparity of only 3% in mid-distribution. Reviews are required every 7 years. Needless to say, the farce of asking MPs to vote to approve or disallow boundary changes was abolished nearly three decades ago.
Does not really matter what he does, as history shows us, Labour will pay a heavy price in the next few elections.
So enjoy the Olympics instead , what a fantastic success for David Cameron and his team!
Head in the sand? Not seen any opinion polls lately? Missed the council elections the last couple of years?
The Tories have opened a can of worms for themselves by making boundaries a political issue. Equalisation of constituencies on the basis of population is at least as arguable as the Tory plan but would benefit Labour at the Tories expense. It looks as if this could be in the next Labour manifesto.
The argument about "fairness" by first poster is a nonsense. Cameron's is using "fairness" as a fig leaf for the real purpose of this exercise - more tory MP's. The tories have always been quite happy with system as long as it benefited them - in 1951 for eg Labour won far more votes than the tories and yet the tories won a majority in parliament! Also throughout the 1980's this benfited the tories and they were quite happy. No talk of "fairness" then.
A boundary change that would mean EVEN LESS libdem MP's - possibly no Green MP - on the 2010 voting figures (when the tories won nearly half the seats on 36% of vote and libdems secured just 9% of seats with nearly a 1/4 of the vote) is making it even more unfair - except there would be a tory majority, which is all Cameron matters to Cameron.
Good article by the way.
All solid stuff but you don't engage with the central reason for the Tories desire for far more equal electoral boundaries and that is that as they currently stand the General Election result in terms of seats is wholly out-of-kilter with votes cast.
What is the figure ? Conservatives at last election got the same percentage as Blair in his third election and whereas that gave Labour a very comfortable majority, the same figure was a "loss" for the Tories.
I think most independently minded people would consider that far from fair.
And very much more unfair for the LDs and smaller parties. But that gets us onto the PR argument.
The electoral system we have in the UK makes no link between national share of the vote and national share of the seats. Anyone who supports it, as the Conservatives do, cannot then go on to complain that the shares of seats and votes are out of kilter.
Exactly. It always makes me laugh when we have tories demanding these boundary changes, so that the number of votes cast tallies with seats won, but then argue that Proportional Representation is wrong....
Except you are not comparing like with like there. In 2005 the boundaries were quite out of date, they were updated for the 2010 election, so the "bias" to Labour was reduced considerably.
The big problem Cameron has, is that even after the biggest recession since the 1930's, with the most unpopular Prime Minister since the war, against a party that had been in power for 13 years - he still could win an election. Boundaries werent the reason he didnt - but he's using them to solve his other problem. He's unelectable.
Good piece especially on Cameron's Chartist nonsense. The worst thing about the constituency proposals, though, is the reduction of MPs to 600 from 650. This means a consequent proportional increase in the "payroll vote" in Parliament ie the Government can buy the loyalty of getting on for a third of the House of Commons through handing out ministries and PPS and whips' posts. Hence the government has greater control of Parliament and Parliament less scrutiny over government. Not what the Chartists wanted at all...