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Labour 15% ahead in Corby by-election

Louise Mensch's former seat set to fall to Labour.

David Cameron with Labour leader Ed Miliband. Photograph: Getty Images.
Ed Miliband is set for his sixth by-election win of this parliament. Photograph: Getty Images.

When I suggested, following Louise Mensch's resignation, that Labour would walk the Corby by-election, the party's deputy chair Tom Watson cast doubt on my prediction, insisting that "Corby will be a very tough fight" (oddly, his tweet seems to have vanished).

But Watson needn't have managed expectations. A poll of 1,500 Corby voters by Lord Ashcroft for ConservativeHome gives Labour a 15-point lead over the Conservatives, with Miliband's party on 52% and Cameron's on 37%. The Lib Dems are on just 7% and could yet be caught by UKIP. The Tories currently have a majority of 1,951 (3.6%) after winning the seat, which Labour held from 1997 until 2010, at the last election.

Miliband has won five by-elections since becoming Labour leader. with Bradford West the only blot on his record, but Corby would be his first gain. The evidence that the Tories are in retreat in those marginals that they won in 2010 is confirmation, if needed, that they will struggle to avoid defeat at the next election.

17 comments

Amergin's picture

I am honestly of the opinion that the people of this nation have lost interest in the parties that seek to represent us in Parliament. The expenses scandal, the silly name calling at PMQ’s, a government that fails to rein in the greedy financial sectors and banks but blames the disabled and unemployed for the state of the nation’s economic and moral health, all contribute to an electorate that willfully disenfranchises itself by not voting.
It seems there is a place for a new party that brings honesty, integrity, accountability and transparency to the heart of its political philosophy. It should be a party who seeks election to serve all the people and not a selected few, for reasons of service and not for the power and authority that office confers.
There is not enough time to form such a party but any of the three major parties could look into themselves and redefine their political values to embed these valued ethics.
The Conservatives are selfish and greedy and attracts the selfish and greedy along with the naïve and gullible, they could not change if they tried.
The Labour party of Kier Hardy began with real ethics and intents but over the years it lost its heart, embracing the notions of communism and allowing infiltration of the party structure to so flourish as to make it unelectable. Blair changed all that but made it into a bland copy of the conservatives which in its turn failed.
Labour need to look deep into their hearts and find the faintly glowing embers of altruism that gave birth to the great party it was capable of being under Atlee. Those values should be to protect and enhance the standards of health, both physical and moral, to ensure personal economic stability, to tolerate the spectrums of spiritual beliefs without allowing any to be involved in the political agenda in any way, to punish greed, dishonesty and complicity in business and financial dealings, that punishment to involve confiscation, imprisonment and barring from reentering into any of those professions.
Fan those embers of altruism into a flame that cauterizes the wounds this brutal and heartless government are inflicting upon the people.
I could go on but I will end by saying if as suggested Corby can be won by Labour then the party should make every effort to persuade the people of Corby to speak for the nation by voting in their thousands to give Labour a massive majority and let the Conservatives know our opinion of their governing. Do not think your vote does not matter raise your voices together and send your message echoing down the corridors of Westminster.

Tony Montana's picture

Maybe if mr cameron changed his pompous language and hostile attitude to unemployed , sick ,old , disabled and stopped crawling up barclays cheifs corrupt backside he may win more votes at the moment he is hated together with his nazi b lickers.

Red Rain's picture

To all you ardent but deluded Labour party supporters do you honestly believe Labour’s grandee care about your concerns or give a fig for your wellbeing, think again the only thing these parasitic pigs care about is muscling out their tory opponent’s snouts out of the ministerial trough and gouging their own gluttonous snouts.

bob impossible's picture

cant a party called nonlabcon field a candidate in every seat next election. They dont have to be brain surgeons the Civil service do all the heavy lifting. Just someone honest with no baggage and not a thick or educated racist.

Red Rain's picture

I'm going to tell you why I think Labour will lose the next General Election. First of all we should discuss why people like me voted Labour in the last three elections. Why did I vote Labour? I'm afraid that I was greedy. Knowing that the country's finances were in pretty good shape (thanks to the previous Tory government) I liked the idea of Labour's promise to throw tons of money at our public services, I liked the idea of a minimum wage and I liked the sound of their promises to help out the less well off but that was in 1997. By 2001 I was a little disillusioned with my decision to vote Labour at the previous Elections. This was mainly because I felt that whilst they had indeed thrown money at our public services, they were not doing a good enough job at getting value for money. However, I thought to myself that that competence would come with another turn in government, so I gave them my vote. I was wrong.

Gerry Tierney's picture

Let's be honest here, you're making all that up, yeah?

ALEX PARSONS's picture

CAMERON IS GOING TO GIVE A REFERENDUM ON IN OR OUT OF EUROPE IF THINGS ARE LOOKING BAD FOR HIM NOT WILL IT BE GOOD FOR THE COUNTRY BUT GET HIM ELECTED BY THE WAY THESE TOFFS ARE GETTING AWAY WITH MURDER THE SKY DEAL DONORS GETTING CONTRACTS ASHCROFTS TAX STATUS GRAYLINGS HOUSING BENIFIT CAMERON SAID HE WAS GOING TO CLEAN THINGS UP THIS IS THE MOST CORRUPT GOVERMENT I CAN REMEMBER WE ARE LOOKING TO YOU JOURNALIST TO NAIL THEM PEOPLE LIKE ME ARE NOT ON THE TOFFS RADAR

Fordy1968's picture

No need to shout. I'm not deaf.

Lucidus's picture

Good point on the ConservativeHome site:

"The LibDem vote has halved, however, down from 15% to 7%. The weakness of the LibDem vote is going to be a big problem for Tory MPs all over the country at the next election if they are facing a strong second-placed Labour candidate."

Michael Dixon's picture

Labour will win Corby-well done. It will have no relevance whatsoever to the outcome of the General Election.

Just read your modern politics books before crowing.

Barrie J's picture

The true tragedy of British politics - the revolving door of mediocrity, as one worthless self serving parasite is replaced by another.
May God help us.

Red Rain's picture

To all you ardent but deluded Labour party supporters do you honestly believe Labour’s grandee care about your concerns or give a fig for your wellbeing, think again the only thing these parasitic pigs care about is muscling out their tory opponent’s snouts out of the ministerial trough and gouging their own gluttonous snouts.

Dark Heart of Toryland's picture

Is a gross over-simplification to argue that they're all as bad as bad as each other. This Tory government, even with it's LibDem leavening, is markedly worse even than Tony Blair's. While Blair's catastrophic and immoral intervention in Iraq is unforgiveable, it should be remembered that the Tories were vociferous in their support for it.
No, the real problem is that the dysfunctional electoral system offers a choice between deeply tainted Labour and the utterly appalling Tories - or rather, it offers this choice to the voters in a handful of marginal constituencies. This leaves many on the left with the unpalatable prospect of voting for the lesser of two evils, and therefore appearing to endorse Labour, along with its record of enthusiastic adoption of fundamentalist neoliberalism. Sadly, with electoral reform effectively dead as an issue, there is no prospect of the malaise being addressed in the foreseeable future.

Herbert's picture

Of course they're as bad as each other. Blair was fortunate enough to be PM at a time when capitalism was booming. As the parties' job is simply to administer capitalism and doing their masters' bidding (see Peter Wilby's admirable demolition of House of Lords reform) then governments of whatever colour will have as their first concern during a period of economic downturn, the interests of their masters. And we know what that means for the rest of us.

Fordy1968's picture

That doesn't alter the fact that they are as bad as each other though. If you fancy something a bit more Che Guevera, why not emigrate to Cuba, Venezuela or North Korea? I'll even drive you to the airport.

Livers's picture

I can't see a Labour Govt dismantling the NHS, sacking returning soldiers and giving a tax break to millionaires.

Maybe a Nu-Labour Govt would have.

Fordy1968's picture

There are still plenty of rotten things they can do though, and they will. Tory and Labour are two rusty sides of the same coin. Toss the coin into a fountain and wish.

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