The Staggers

The New Statesman’s rolling politics blog

Could Cameron win the boundary changes vote?

Unless the PM knows something we don't, the answer is no.

By George Eaton Published 07 August 2012 15:35

Prime Minister and Conservative leader David Cameron. Photograph: Getty Images.

David Cameron said that boundary reform was "a very sensible proposal and it will be put forward". Photograph: Getty Images.

Despite the Lib Dems vowing to oppose the boundary changes, David Cameron has confirmed that the plans will be put to a vote.

"I am going to saying to every MP 'look the House of Commons ought to be smaller, less expensive and we ought to have seats which are exactly the same size'," he said.

"I think everyone should come forward and vote for that proposal because it is a very sensible proposal and it will be put forward."

So, with Clegg's party ready to rebel, is there any chance of Cameron getting his way? Unless the Prime Minister knows something we don't, the answer is no. Most of the nationalist parties, including the DUP, which holds eight seats, are publicly opposed to the changes and are unlikely to be easily bought off. In addition, at least a handful of Tories can be expected to vote against the reforms as three of the party's Cornish MPs (George Eustace, Sheryll Murray and Sarah Newton) previously did. Without the support of the Lib Dems, there is no majority to be found.

Cameron's hope, presumably, is that Clegg, who previously declared that "there can be no justification for maintaining the current inequality between constituencies and voters across the country", can be persuaded to renege on his opposition. But with the Deputy Prime Minister now publicly pledged to vote against the changes, this would surely be a humiliation too far.

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Tags: Boundary Changes David Cameron Liberal Democrats Nick Clegg

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19 comments

Wed, 2012-08-08 15:02 — lost lib (not verified)

So we're supposed to believe that Conservative MPs are furious about the prospect of no change?

We're supposed to believe that Tory MPs really want to compete with each other for selection in fewer larger seats or risk their own jobs on the new boundaries?

Do me a favour. It's utterly phoney outrage, as pretend as Boris Airport or Gove's O levels; totally meaningless, posturing; Tory placemen will be overjoyed at keeping the status quo and even more overjoyed to have someone else to blame for it.

By killing this bill, Clegg may even just about save his own party. They might just retain 9 or 10 seats under the current boundaries in 2015 but under the new boundaries they would be down to 2 or 3.

The Tories have nothing to lose strategically anyway. Most of those Lib seats will go straight back to the Tories because the Libs were only ever lent votes from the disillusioned left in order to stop the Tories in the first place.

Wed, 2012-08-08 14:36 — SammyW (not verified)

""I am going to saying to every MP 'look the House of Commons ought to be smaller, less expensive and we ought to have seats which are exactly the same size'," he said.---------------------

I wish Cameron would stop lying, it is nothing of the kind, he couldn't care less about the size of constituencies, that is just an excuse to gerrymander the boundaries and get away with it. He wants this because he knows it is the only conceivable way he could hope to winning a majority in 2015. As it happens if things stay the same (or more likely they will get worse) even with boundary changes Cameron will not be winning a majority in 2015, in fact it looks like the Tories will be out on their collective ears.

Clegg can have a hissy fit and change his mind back again, I doubt that would make much difference because he is not going to hold the balance of power in 2015, his party will be finished. That's what you get for pretendy to be left and then turning sharply to the right, left wing voters will not forgive that - ever!

Wed, 2012-08-08 12:42 — MAB72 (not verified)

What exactly has Clegg said though - that he will actively vote against the changes or just not support them? I wouldn't be at all surprised if, after all this foot stamping, the LibDems decide to just abstain again, like they did with the Jeremy Hunt vote, therefore allowing the Tories to get it through.

Wed, 2012-08-08 14:38 — SammyW (not verified)

I can't help agreeing with you, Clegg and the feeble "Fib Dems" have form for doing just that!

Wed, 2012-08-08 09:39 — hugh markey (not verified)

Quintin Letts in his BBC Radio 4 ' What's the point of...' programme on Lord Lieutenants has raised quite an important matter.
Before forking out £10K on a LL's rig-out, we are concerned by the Tories meddling(nothing to do with the Olympics) with constitutional boundaries. Demarcation - leave that to the Unionrs. It's not even clear if the Monarch has been consulted. And what about a 'referendum'?
Sundar Katwala of British Future certainly has. Pro or Con - not sure!
Some of RP accents unearthed by this programme really need an archaelogist to interpret them.
Yes, you guessed it. Henry VIII set the whole thing up! The Tudors again. Welsh counter-jumpers.
Still, about that uniform.......

SHIRE NOBLE

Wed, 2012-08-08 00:29 — RFM

A humiliation too far for Nick Clegg? Surely, you jest.

Wed, 2012-08-08 10:22 — BXP (not verified)

The article implied the humiliation was of David Cameron not Nick Clegg .
Try to concentrate!!

Wed, 2012-08-08 14:27 — SammyW (not verified)

I've read it and re read it, unless I'm missing something it does not, it reads the "humiliation of Nick Clegg"!

And yes if Clegg suddenly decided to back the boundary changes vote it would be an "humiliation too far" it would make him appear even more foolish and humiliated than he currently does.

Tue, 2012-08-07 20:18 — Kernow (not verified)

it should be noted that Cornwall's Tory MPs voted against the govt in one amendment to 'Keep Cornwall Whole' but otherwise voted for the bill. Sheryll Murray is on twitter lambasting the Lib Dems for breaking promises, seems clear which way she'll vote https://mobile.twitter.com/sheryllmurray/status/232611835247988736

Tue, 2012-08-07 20:17 — Lance63 (not verified)

Here in Cornwall feeling is very strong against boundary changes as the plan is for a 'DevonWall' constituency that will cover an area of Cornwall and Devon - not a good idea for the independently minded people in the land of Kernow!
Sure it would be a relief for the LibDems if plans come to nought as they have a strong base here. (Still, they risk being wiped out anyway after NHS, Student Loans etc) I am not sure, though, whether we can count on the three Tories in Cornwall voting for local interests - they have not been known for doing this before!

Tue, 2012-08-07 20:17 — Lance63 (not verified)

Tue, 2012-08-07 20:16 — matthew fox (not verified)

Cameron's own MPs don't listen to him.

Tue, 2012-08-07 19:00 — Gerry Tierney (not verified)

You mean "that", not "this".

Grow up.

Tue, 2012-08-07 17:37 — postageincluded

Brinkmanship? Or just willy-waggling to impress the Boris-inclined?

I still think he'll try buying off DUP/SNP etc, as Callaghan did in the 70s, and in the short term it could work. If not, threaten LD ministers with the boot and promise jobs to those who support him; Laws would be open persuasion, for one, but "flexibility" is one of the LD virtues.

Cameron could even offer electoral pacts to LD MPs - splitting the LDs and recreating the National Liberals of yore. Without a party list in the Lords to run to this could look like an attractive option for LDs in marginal seats (i.e. most of them).

Tue, 2012-08-07 16:36 — Mike Hopkins (not verified)

Unless he wants to force the break up of the coalition and go for a supply and motion deal.

Tue, 2012-08-07 16:36 — Mike Hopkins (not verified)

Unless he wants to force the break up of the coalition and go for a supply and motion deal.

Tue, 2012-08-07 16:36 — Mike Hopkins (not verified)

Unless he wants to force the break up of the coalition and go for a supply and motion deal.

Tue, 2012-08-07 16:16 — p j wall (not verified)

Flashman knows that 'Yellow Belly' Clegg is his loyal, servile butler!, and he`ll probably do as he`s told?.
Clegg, and the rest of his collaborators, know they`re toast in 2015 anyway!, so, don`t be surprised if clegg, yet again, reneges with some 'weak as piss' deal?, this is presuming that Clegg still leads the Limp Dems up to 2015?.