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RSSClegg has killed the Tories' hopes of a majority
The loss of the boundary changes is disastrous for Cameron.
By George Eaton Published 06 August 2012 15:15
A mournful Nick Clegg has just confirmed that the coalition will not proceed with House of Lords reform after David Cameron failed to persuade enough Tory MPs to renege on their opposition to the bill. "Part of our contract has now been broken," he lamented. Clegg went on to announce that the Lib Dems would retaliate by voting against the boundary changes, which would gift the Tories an extra 20 seats, when they reach Parliament. Without the support of Clegg's MPs, who, after all, account for 100 per cent of the government's majority, the reforms are effectively dead.
The key political consequence of this is that it will now be even harder for the Conservatives to win a majority in 2015. As I've noted before, with the boundary changes, the Tories would have needed a lead of seven points (on a uniform swing) to win a majority. Without them, they need a lead of 11 points. Conversely, Labour, which would have required a lead of four points with the boundary changes, now needs a lead of just three.
The reason Labour retain their electoral advantage is that the electoral bias towards the party owes more to differential turnout (fewer people tend to vote in Labour constituencies) and regional factors (the Tory vote is poorly distributed) than it does to unequal constituencies (the coalition planned to fix constituency sizes at around 76,000 voters).
Even with the boundary changes, a Tory majority in 2015 was looking unlikely. No sitting prime minister has increased their party's share of the vote since 1974, and Cameron is failing to make progress among those groups that refused to support him last time round. Now, with the loss of the reforms, the challenge of building a Tory majority has moved from "difficult" to "impossible".
Ironically, after the opprobrium heaped on him by Labour, it is Clegg, in blocking the boundary changes, who has done Miliband's party the greatest possible service.
Tags: Nick Clegg David Cameron Boundary Changes House of Lords reform
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George Eaton is editor of The Staggers blog
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18 comments
My favourite word in this article is "opprobrium".
"opprobrium"
Really? Couldn't find a more appropriate word that stank of upper class snobbery and pretension?
It's bad enough when all out politicians start talking like Old Etonians, can we at least have accessible journalism that speaks to those who need to hear?
There's nothing wrong with having a nice broad vocabulary. However there is a point where you start sounding like; and writing like a prat. That was your plimsole line before you sink below the weight of your own pretension (see that's still a comment based on knowledge but doesn't have to sound like someone who just craps out the latin they learned from their private tutor).
All Clegg has too do at this point is put his foot down ...so I wouldn't count any chickens on these boundary change reforms being blocked.
Curious. I suppose the Pirate Captain Cameron thought he could push Clegg around forever and the worm wouldn't turn. Turned out Clegg had a spine after all - that's a muddled metaphor with invertebrates and backbones but so what.
Electoral reform is something of a hot potato. It is needed but there is no way to do it without winners and losers so we are stuck with what we have for the forseeable.
I'd like to see PR in some reasonable form, though it would lead to endless coalitions which has it's downsides.
Personally I'd like more democracy. Something politics was devised to stymie.
Spineless and gutless, and deep in the brown stuff. Like a tape-worm.
I really thought the tories would implode on Europe when it was their shot again, turns out I can drop the 'on Europe' bit.
"The reason Labour retain their electoral advantage is that the electoral bias towards the party owes more to... ...regional factors (the Tory vote is poorly distributed)..."
What this means is that Labour voters live together, but that Tory voters are so unpleasant that even other Tories don't want to live near them.
Ach, schadenfreude. Or the Dutch equivalent. No crowing , please.
Somebody said, we think it was President Reagan's Secretary for the Environment, "Who's gonna know a hundred years from today!' Some pop poet even dashed off a song on that score.
But here we are a century later and Nick Clegg's name is mud. Mr Balfour had his poodle. Mr Cameron has his lap dog. Woof, woof!!
No, not the terrifying hound of the Baskervilles, mind you: just a handbag-size mutt.
However, all is not lost. Simon Hughes is pretty damned riled. He's a regular junk-yard dog when he smells political gore. And he's been kept outside the ministerial golden ghetto.
Beware of the hound.
Knight of the Garter
Ach, schadenfreude. Or the Dutch equivalent. No crowing , please.
Somebody said, we think it was President Reagan's Secretary for the Environment, "Who's gonna know a hundred years from today!' Some pop poet even dashed off a song on that score.
But here we are a century later and Nick Clegg's name is mud. Mr Balfour had his poodle. Mr Cameron has his lap dog. Woof, woof!!
No, not the terrifying hound of the Baskervilles, mind you: just a handbag-size mutt.
However, all is not lost. Simon Hughes is pretty damned riled. He's a regular junk-yard dog when he smells political gore. And he's been kept outside the ministerial golden ghetto.
Beware of the hound.
Knight of the Garter
If the contract has been broken, the coalition is surely over.
this whole episode, shows the tory party is not fit to govern the country. what we need is a labour govt that can now organise itself as well as blair did in the nineties - i.e. a machine which only knows one thing and that is to win elections.
i would like to see the government spending formula so that a higher percentage is spent on growth enhancing infrastructure spend and less on current spending on services and benefits.
i want to see an immediate commitment to some things the tories will not have backbone to implement including HS2 (starting from the north), more green energy generation projects, new super airport for London in the thames estuary with associated connections and links to drainage, flood control and super high speed broadband trunk.
so, how exactly does "green energy" fit in with a new airport?
I'm convinced the Tories will pull the EU referendum rabbit out of the hat for the next election to win it.
I can think of no other reason Cameron has capitulated on Lords reform knowing that this would prevent boundary changes legislation going ahead without LibDem support.
But if the Tories say, 'We will have a referendum on EU membership' all Labour has to say is 'We will have a referendum on EU membership'. Miliband could be even smarter and get in first, saying, 'The uncertainty over this must stop'.
Funny as hell.
Always look on the bright side - Ms Dorres seat will still exist! A problem that was thought to be vanishing remains. I know I shouldn't but I am chuckling.
But look what Cameron has achieved (with Lib Dem Help): the beginning of the end of the NHS, the beginning of the end of the benefits system, the beginning of the introduction of a form of serfdom at work... Not bad in two years.
I've no desire to defend the inept Clegg but presumably Cameron and his party knew exactly what would ensue from rejecting Lords reform. It's entirely possible that Cameron will go down in history as the leader who tried to detoxify his party and make them re-electable. In the face of a party so stupid it actively seeks opportunities for its own demise.