The Staggers

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Cameron's decision to drop Lords reform will test the coalition like never before

Which will crack first, Cameron’s hold on his party or the glue that binds the coalition?

By Richard Morris Published 03 August 2012 10:50

Lords attending the State Opening earlier this year. Photograph: Getty Images

So now we know. The reported abandonment of Lords Reform means the government’s legislative programme is being run, not by the Prime Minister, but by a group of 100 or so Conservative backbenchers who henceforth will be calling the shots. It’s quite a moment.

The received wisdom seems to be that that "no Lords Reform means similarly no boundary changes", there’s a minor sulk for a day or so and then everyone moves on.

This is quite wrong. From a Lib Dem perspective, the two great constitutional changes we wanted to achieve in government will have failed. There will have to be some mighty great bits of compensation in return – and it’s unlikely the Tories will deliver. Can anyone see Osborne – now guaranteed to be Chancellor until the next election according to the PM yesterday – agreeing to a radical green agenda? Ditto on delivering root and branch banking reform, the so-called "Vickers Plus" plan apparently favoured by Vince. Self-interest means neither the Labour or Conservative leadership will show any great enthusiasm for Party Funding reform. And even if they did, those emboldened Tory backbenchers now know they can stop anything they don’t like in its tracks.

But neither is the status quo acceptable to grassroots Lib Dems. Expect fireworks at the Brighton conference where Lib Dem members will be demanding Nick Clegg negotiates the earth in return for this latest Conservative debacle – but which he knows he cannot deliver because his Tory opposite number is holed below the water line.

Nick’s only power will be similarly to say a firm "No" to anything we find even vaguely uncomfortable going forward. The snooping bill should be firmly in his sights. But more than that, he needs to stop any of the legislation that the Tory right are itching to start pushing – attempts to abandon the European Convention of Human Rights and an EU referendum are two obvious areas in which Nick is more likely to be able to control Tory backbenchers than the PM. There’s an irony there.

And so we reach an impasse in which the sole government agenda item will become the centrepiece of the coalition agreement – reducing the deficit. And even there a fight is brewing as Vince pushes for Plan B and Osborne looks to cut Welfare. Another impasse looms.

And all the time the pressure builds. Tory backbenchers will be stretching their muscles, Lib Dem grass roots will be pushing right back. Eventually something is going to give. The only question is which is the weakest spot – Cameron’s hold on his party or the glue that binds the coalition?

One of them is going to crack first. And then the fun really starts.

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Tags: House of Lords reform

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14 comments

Sun, 2012-08-05 08:48 — Red Rain (not verified)

Aren't there more important issues like mass youth unemployment? The spiraling cost of healthcare or our underfunded pensions: how's about ending Labour's foreign wars of misadventure or finally ending the appalling abuse of many an English girl at the hands of their abusive Asian parents. No.... let's talk about the house of lords....

Fri, 2012-08-03 21:01 — hugh markey (not verified)

You've got to give it to the Tory Party and the Lords of the UK for staying power. Just over a century ago Lloyd George and the Liberals forced the People's Budget through parliament despite the hyena-snapping of their Lordships angered at having their 'fringe' benefits curtailed. Was the monarch consulted? Did he turn 'class traitor'? It is a constitutional monarch after all.
The House of Lords is still the best club in London, ie the world, and by George it shall remain so if the rump of landed gentry, self-made aristocrats, property speculators and flunkeys have anything to do with it.
What about the LibDem Brighton Conference? A good excuse for a dirty week-end, we'd say.

Leg-over Lib Dem

Fri, 2012-08-03 19:22 — Michael Dixon (not verified)

Nothing will happen other than hot air. Cameron has called this correctly as the last thing the Liberal Democrats want is an election.

Cameron has realised that his Party will not accept this piece of legislation. That is being sensible.

Labout too would panic if the election button was pressed. Miliband is still regarded as a lightweight and Labour should be miles ahead in the polls by now, as Kinnock was with Thatcher.

Mind you a fat lot of good that did him when push came to shove.

Sat, 2012-08-04 06:06 — mac496 (not verified)

You hold onto that although the Tories didnt win the last election by quite some margin. They are unpopular and no Government of any hue has increased their vote share in the following election since the 50's.

So you hold onto Kinnock. I'll hold on to the fact the cuts have hardly been made yet. That the Economy is tanking because of failed policies. That the changes to the NHS will see the service become worse and will see the Tories on the opposition benches for another 10 years.

Sun, 2012-08-05 11:50 — kenelmist (not verified)

The Tories will lose. Policy failure, and toxic politics attacking millions of poor families. Trying to make huge changes, without any mandate, whilst having no majority.

I think 10 years is an understatement. I think the Tories will never win again.

Fri, 2012-08-03 19:22 — Michael Dixon (not verified)

Nothing will happen other than hot air. Cameron has called this correctly as the last thing the Liberal Democrats want is an election.

Cameron has realised that his Party will not accept this piece of legislation. That is being sensible.

Labout too would panic if the election button was pressed. Miliband is still regarded as a lightweight and Labour should be miles ahead in the polls by now, as Kinnock was with Thatcher.

Mind you a fat lot of good that did him when push came to shove.

Fri, 2012-08-03 19:12 — kenelmist (not verified)

This is what the LibDems really care about. Not the poor, the disabled, the NHS. Richard, your party is disgusting, and you deserve political oblivion.

Fri, 2012-08-03 16:28 — Daniel J (not verified)

I thought that the fiscal stimulus required to create jobs, jobs, jobs does not need Parliamentary time - the Executive decides whether there is stimulus and how much it is?

Fri, 2012-08-03 14:19 — Davidaslindsay (not verified)

Labour allowed Second Reading of the Lords Reform Bill so that the fun could begin, but with a carefully organised "rebellion" tellingly representative of the general diversity of Labour MPs. There was not one real Labour rebel, i.e., a Labour vote in favour.

Labour had always intended to vote against Third Reading, on the grounds that that was signing off the final dog's breakfast of a Bill, rather than making possible a debate, with the possibility of numerous amendments, on the original dog's breakfast of a Bill. After a year or two of sitting back and watching the Conservatives tear themselves to shreds, Labour was always planning to vote with their last ditchers and destroy the thing at the last possible moment.

Even this "government" of dilettantes seems finally to have cottoned on, so the Bill is going to be withdrawn. What a pity. But the Lib Dems will never now accept the proposed boundary changes. For that matter, how many Conservative MPs really want them, with their requirement to fight neighbours over a single meal ticket for life where once there were two or more? No one is going to weep over the loss of either of these Bills. And does the end of the gerrymandering scheme mean that Dennis Skinner now longer has to retire in favour of a younger neighbour?

What does David Cameron have to do before he is required to resign? What, exactly?

Fri, 2012-08-03 14:00 — Barrie J (not verified)

Clegg will do or say anything to stay 'in power'.
He is a dishonest man devoid of any integrity - I presume Lib-Dem voters are entirely happy with that situation?
Maybe in 2015 they'll tell us.

Sat, 2012-08-04 17:49 — Graeme Hancocks (not verified)

Well said.

Fri, 2012-08-03 12:13 — november (not verified)

at this point in time it would not surprise me if nick clegg announced the lib dems where no more, and that he has joined the tories and that they have surrendered all there seats to tories.

Fri, 2012-08-03 11:20 — Benjamin Rae (not verified)

What else would you expect from what are looking more and more like a very right wing party? We now know Clegg is aligned with most of what they believe. He just couldn't have been as comfortable as he has been with policies if he wasn't.
The question is, when will the Lib Dems wake up and put a stop to it. If they don't do it very quickly then they can't consider themselves to be anything other than a right wing party

Fri, 2012-08-03 11:13 — Blimy (not verified)

Your party will capitulate to their every demand. Just like you have since 2010. And you'll tell us how 'brave' it's all been. If your party members want a party left to support, you really do need to force change now, or you'll be polling below the nut-jobs at the next election.