The Staggers

The New Statesman’s rolling politics blog

The Scottish Yes campaign’s class problem

Working class Scots are more likely to support independence but less likely to vote than their middle class counterparts.

By James Maxwell Published 16 July 2012 11:45

Scotland's First Minister Alex Salmond. Photograph: Getty Images.

Scotland's First Minister Alex Salmond at the launch of the 'Yes' campaign for Scottish independence in Edinburgh. Photograph: Getty Images.

Left-wing supporters of the Union often accuse the Scottish National Party (SNP) of pursuing constitutional change at the expense of focusing on more concrete issues like the economic crisis and its implications for ordinary Scots. The assumption which informs this criticism is that nationalists are more interested in questions of identity than they are in those of class. Recent political history suggests this is largely true, but it overlooks one crucial point: there is a clear class dynamic to the constitutional debate in Scotland.

In the 1979 referendum on devolution, 57 per cent of working class Scots voted in favour of a Scottish legislative assembly, whereas 60 per cent of middle class Scots voted against. In 1997, 91 per cent of working class voters backed the creation of a Scottish Parliament compared to 69 per cent of middle class voters. A similar pattern emerges when it comes to independence. In January, Ipsos-MORI published a poll which showed that support for full Scottish self-government registers much higher among Scots living in deprived parts of the country (58 per cent) than it does among those living in affluent areas (27 per cent).

The divide between a Scottish working class with radical constitutional instincts and a Scottish middle class with more conservative ones poses a serious challenge to the pro-independence coalition ahead of the 2014 referendum. In Scotland, as in the rest of the United Kingdom, middle class people are significantly more likely to vote than their working class counterparts. Indeed, according to the Scottish Election Study, between 1997 and 2007 the average turnout in all parliamentary elections in Scotland (Westminster, Holyrood and European) among voters in the highest and intermediate social class categories was 40 per cent and 36 per cent respectively, while the figure for those in the lowest group was 24 per cent.

If this trend continues the likelihood of a majority Yes vote in the referendum is extremely slim, which raises the question: what kind of campaign should the SNP and its allies run? One option is to focus on winning middle class voters over to the idea of independence - a considerable challenge given the constituency’s traditional loyalty to the Union. Another is to try to ‘expand the electorate’ as Barack Obama did to great effect in the 2008 US presidential election. If successful, this would ensure a higher working class turnout than at previous ballots. A further option is to build a campaign which appeals to both middle class and working class interests, but this risks promoting conflicting narratives.

There is little in the SNP’s recent past which indicates how it might deal with the class cleavage at the heart of the independence debate - its approach to the issue of class has always been rather disjointed. In the 1970s it advanced a broadly social democratic agenda, pledging to wage a "war on poverty" by raising tax thresholds, increasing child benefits and establishing a universal minimum income, but did so while rejecting what one 1978 policy document called "the extremes of outdated class politics". In the early 1980s efforts were made by a radical left-wing faction within the party to give nationalism a distinctive socialist identity, but this failed when a dispute with the leadership resulted in the faction’s expulsion.

The experience of Thatcherism was formative for the current generation of SNP leaders. The socially destructive effects of Thatcher’s flagship economic policies (Scottish unemployment and poverty rates nearly doubled during her period in office) consolidated the centre-left consensus in the party but didn’t contribute to the development of a coherent class strategy. The continuing lack of any such strategy has been made apparent in recent years by the leadership’s simultaneous championing of the Irish laissez-faire experiment and the Nordic social model.

With leading members from both the socialist left - like Dennis Canavan and Colin Fox - and the Scottish business elite - like George Mathewson and Tasmina Ahmed-Sheikh - the make-up of the Yes Scotland coalition reflects the SNP’s ill-defined perspective on class. If the independence campaign is to be successful, its organisers need to develop a much clearer position - and quickly.

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Tags: Scottish independence SNP Scotland

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28 comments

Wed, 2012-11-21 15:24 — DerickT (not verified)

Electorate expansion well under way thanks

Google
Radical Independence Conference
Labour for Independence
Scottish socialist party independence
Scottish Green Party votes to join pro-independence yes campaign
Yes Scotland

Sat, 2012-07-21 13:14 — Sean Gallen (not verified)

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Fri, 2012-07-20 16:58 — Drew Edward (not verified)

It's nothing compared to the dilemma facing Labour and the Lib Dems in the No campaign. Stick with the Tories 'No surrender to the SNP' mantra opposing any change to the status quo to satisfy voters in England, but risk alienating the large swathes of fiscal autonomy/home rule campaigners in their traditional vote in Scotland.

Wed, 2012-07-18 21:20 — Cath (not verified)

"In the early 1980s efforts were made by a radical left-wing faction within the party to give nationalism a distinctive socialist identity, but this failed when a dispute with the leadership resulted in the faction’s expulsion."

Erm, that would be the 79 group you're referring to. The "faction" that consisted mainly of Alex Salmond (now first Minister), Kenny MacAskill (now justice secretary) and Margo McDonald (now still out the SNP but very firmly pro-indepdence and still vehemently socialist). They're not as radically left wing as they were, it's true, apart from Margo. But it would be fair to say they re-shaped the party after their short expulsion.

And the SNP is now considerably left of new Labour. We still have a public NHS up here, for example - something which appeals to all classes, free tuition fees etc. Thing is, when you bring a cross-section of normal people together (as opposed to politicians, lobbyists, media interests and the mega-rich etc) there is a reasonable amount of agreement on what they, broadly, want their country to look like. And it isn't generally like Tory Britain looks right now. I'd guess if the SNP were standing in England on all the same policies except independence, they'd be fairly popular there too.

Wed, 2012-07-18 13:34 — Goji (not verified)

Nice article..... interesting.
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Tue, 2012-07-17 21:28 — Nigel Watt (not verified)

I was sad to hear of Mehdi Hassan's departure and have no plans to read the Huffington Post. I hope he will continue to write for the NS and the Graunaid. He is brilliant, and usually right e.g. Ken's tax.

Tue, 2012-07-17 14:23 — Will Podmore (not verified)

What is the SNP's policy about the euro this week?
The SNP call for 'independence within the EU' is like calling for freedom in gaol.

Tue, 2012-07-17 13:19 — Stuart Eels (not verified)

Oh Dear "A Scot"!

Those wicked English, I can well understand you wanting to be independent, that's why so many of we English want to ensure your independence by being allowed to vote in the referendum. We wicked English have a majority in England that want your independence, more so than in Scotland. Maybe you should go and sit in a dark room and think about it and ask yourself if we rule over you why the last three PMs in the United Kindom have all been Scots and why we are more than happy to see you independent!

Tue, 2012-07-17 14:39 — Benjamin Rae (not verified)

Are we calling David Cameron Scottish now?

Tue, 2012-07-17 11:34 — RolftheGanger

This reads like a piece of Unionist wishful thinking. Or whistling in the dark to keep up their spirits.

The key statistic is that recent social attitude polls show less than one in five in Scotland trust Westminster when it comes to Scottish affairs. The reverse is true for Holyrood and the SNP Government. The Westminster system has lost all credibility and trust. Scandal follows scandal - Libor, banksters, MPs expenses, PFI, 14 billion on cancelled IT systems, almost weekly. Does anyone think than more scandals are not to come? So trust will erode further by 2014.

Once trust is gone the relationship is ended. 2014 will simply be the funeral, following the death of the Union, which has already happened. All over, bar the shouting.

Tue, 2012-07-17 03:02 — A Scot (not verified)

You can't understand the broad appeal of the Independence movement and never will because the defining characteristic of politics for people in the south is, always was, and always will be about class. Every aspect of English life is defined by class one way or another. Our political and cultural history is not embroiled in class divisions the way English society is structured. We have some private schools it is true but they do no foster ingrained snobbery and entitlement that your fee-paying schools do. They do not serve as stepping stones to political power, thank God. Your failure in the 21st century, where Unionist politicians lay claim to be democrats and still can thole an unelected House of Lords says all we need to know about your inability to look privilege and patronage in the face and call it by it's name. Don't delude yourself with statistics of past voting patterns for M.P's or M.S. P's . This plebiscite appeals across the economic groups because people are voting for a country's future not a set of economic measures.

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Mon, 2012-07-16 18:55 — Benjamin Rae (not verified)

Labour party supporters have an absolute cheek calling anybody a tartan Tory. They are so ridiculously close to the Tories in policy it makes a mockery of democracy in the UK.
From a pragmatic viewpoint there is one chance to have progressive politics in Scotland. Vote yes to independence and get rid of the rotten UK political set up. We're lucky we're getting the opportunity.

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Mon, 2012-07-16 17:30 — duck soup

I think the unionist media has looked at the amazing diversity of the people in the Yes campaign and is now panicking,trying to find a comforting explanation of what's going on. The grass roots of the Yes campaign is diverse. The leadership of the Yes campaign is equally diverse. To convince oneself that it will fall apart because of it's diversity is delusional. Not wishing to be offensive by drawing this analogy but in it's psychological dynamic it is a bit reminiscent of Hitler and Goebbels in the bunker in 1945 convincing themselves that the Alliance ranged against them was about to fall apart because it comprised capitalist America,colonial Britain and the communist Soviet Union. In other words desperation.

Mon, 2012-07-16 17:54 — postageincluded

Well the article is about Nationalism and Socialism so it's no surprise that it took just 7 comments to reach Hitler.

Mon, 2012-07-16 16:45 — duck soup

James Maxwell usually writes much more perceptive articles than this one. So much so that it feels like one that has been written to order.

For a start to use the fact of diminishing electoral turnouts in the western world as evidence of the likelihood of a low referendum turnout is astonishing naivete. A referendum is not an election and a simple bit of research would have shown that the turnout in the 1997 devolution referendum was 60%. If that turnout can happen for a referendum for a parliament with limited powers then what about an independence referendum with such high emotive power?

Tue, 2012-07-17 19:21 — John Ruddy (not verified)

Didnt take long for this to crop up - seems any time someone casts any doubt on the nationalists argument, they must be being forced to write things against their will.

Presumably the only people with any integrity in the world are SNP supporters....

Mon, 2012-07-16 16:42 — plain john snith (not verified)

what was the turnout in 79?

Mon, 2012-07-16 13:48 — Nominal Thickness (not verified)

That is Alex Salmonds greatest con trick,with Murdochs help and tactical tory voting.They have convinced the voting left in Scotland that the tartan Tories (SNP) are on the working mans side.Dont forget Scotish left once you get independance you will be in the arms of LibDem/Tories and SNP.See how the centre left policies go then ?
I remember in the late 70,s and 80,s travelling to work offshore North Sea. Noticing the further north I headed how Murdochs "The Hun" headlines changed from Thatcherite to SNP worship.
Things never change.

Tue, 2012-07-17 05:54 — john hurt (not verified)

The tories will never be elected in an independent scotland, don't be ridiculous.

Tue, 2012-07-17 19:33 — John Ruddy (not verified)

You cant say that. There has only ever been one party to get a majority of votes in Scotland.

It wasnt the SNP in their amazing victory in 2011.

It was the Conservative party.

There's an awful lot of tories out there...

Wed, 2012-07-18 15:31 — Seonaidh (not verified)

And why?

Something to do with the Conservative and Unionist Party of the time stoking the sectarian vote and reaping the benefits. Fortunately, the number of Scots 'worried' about an Irish or Catholic threat to the Union is very small.

Mon, 2012-07-16 14:46 — kenelmist (not verified)

The LibDems are unlikely to thrive after their fraud on the electorate. The Tories are repeating the Thatcher attacks on Scotland, and will hardly to be welcomed back. Even Labour has lost the plot. "Tartan tories" - don't make me laugh.

Mon, 2012-07-16 13:38 — kenelmist (not verified)

Have you tried talking to the SNP?

Tue, 2012-07-17 19:38 — John Ruddy (not verified)

yes, except they denied they had even taken advice on what we wanted to know, let alone telling us what it was....