If Cameron wants to reduce debt, he needs more immigrants

A high level of immigration helps to reduce government borrowing, says the OBR.

If David Cameron really wants to pay off "the nation's credit card", he might want to adopt a less restrictive immigration policy. One of the headline findings of today's Office for Budget Responsibility Fiscal sustainability report is that a high level of net migration helps to reduce government borrowing. It notes:

Higher net inward migration than in our central projection – closer to the levels we have seen in recent years, for example – would put downward pressure on borrowing and PSND, as net immigrants are more likely to be of working age than old age than the population in general.

As the graph above shows, while zero net migration would see the national debt rise to more than 160% of GDP by 2060-61, a policy of high migration would see it increase to little more than 40%. Yet Cameron, who has described deficit reduction as the "guiding task" of the coalition, seems determined to impose even more restrictions on immigration, recently suggesting that the UK could block Greek migrants from entering the country if Greece leaves the euro. Reducing net migration "from hundreds of thousands to tens of thousands", as Cameron aims to do, would significantly weaken the economy. But the PM, never one for detail, is unlikely to be swayed by the OBR.

David Cameron talks to UK border agency officials in their control room during a visit to Heathrow terminal 5. Photograph: Getty Images.

George Eaton is political editor of the New Statesman.

Matt Cardy/Getty Images
Show Hide image

What did Jeremy Corbyn really say about Bin Laden?

He's been critiqued for calling Bin Laden's death a "tragedy". But what did Jeremy Corbyn really say?

Jeremy Corbyn is under fire for describing Bin Laden’s death as a “tragedy” in the Sun, but what did the Labour leadership frontrunner really say?

In remarks made to Press TV, the state-backed Iranian broadcaster, the Islington North MP said:

“This was an assassination attempt, and is yet another tragedy, upon a tragedy, upon a tragedy. The World Trade Center was a tragedy, the attack on Afghanistan was a tragedy, the war in Iraq was a tragedy. Tens of thousands of people have died.”

He also added that it was his preference that Osama Bin Laden be put on trial, a view shared by, among other people, Barack Obama and Boris Johnson.

Although Andy Burnham, one of Corbyn’s rivals for the leadership, will later today claim that “there is everything to play for” in the contest, with “tens of thousands still to vote”, the row is unlikely to harm Corbyn’s chances of becoming Labour leader. 

Stephen Bush is editor of the Staggers, the New Statesman’s political blog.